Why the federal model is unsuitable for Syria, just as it failed in Iraq

Israeli officials have called for dividing Syria into small autonomous regions and have proposed a federal model for the country. In the following article, I respond to these esteemed Israeli officials by explaining why the federal model is unsuitable for Syria, just as it failed in Iraq.

1. Why a Federal Model Is Unsuitable for Syria: A Lesson from Iraq’s Experience

By: Victoria Azad
January 9, 2025

The challenges of implementing a federal system in Iraq serve as a stark warning for why this model may not be suitable for Syria. Below are the key reasons:

1. Ethnic and Sectarian Divisions

Syria is a highly diverse society with Arabs, Kurds, Alawites, Sunnis, Christians, and other minorities. A federal system, which devolves power to regional entities, could exacerbate ethnic and sectarian tensions as groups may seek to consolidate power in their respective areas. This could lead to the fragmentation of the country and potentially ignite further civil wars.

2. Weakening the Central Government

A federal system requires a strong central government to ensure oversight and coordination. However, Syria’s central government is already weak due to years of conflict. Dividing power further could incapacitate the government entirely, plunging the country into deeper instability.

3. Foreign Interference

Foreign powers, including Turkey, Iran, Russia, and the United States, have conflicting interests in Syria. A federal system might enable these actors to directly support specific regions or groups, intensifying internal divisions and prolonging conflicts.

4. Lack of Democratic Foundations and Collaborative Culture

A successful federal system requires a solid legal framework based on democratic principles, strong civil institutions, and a culture of collaboration between regions. Syria, suffering from prolonged war and institutional collapse, lacks these prerequisites.

5. Security Concerns

In a federal model, regions may establish their own military forces. In Syria, this could lead to armed competition between regions, further fueling the risk of perpetual civil conflict.

6. Iraq’s Failed Federal Model as a Warning

Iraq’s federal system, particularly in the Kurdistan Region, serves as a cautionary tale for Syria. Iraq’s experience with federalism has resulted in increased ethnic tensions and a weakened central government. Key challenges include:

• Concentration of Power and Wealth

The Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP) and the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (PUK), the two dominant political parties in Iraqi Kurdistan, have monopolized economic resources. This has resulted in inequitable distribution, leaving ordinary citizens without significant benefits.

• Growing Inequality

Ordinary citizens face poor services, high unemployment, and weak infrastructure, while political elites and their allies amass enormous wealth.

• Weak Central Government and Declining Authority

Federalism in Iraq was implemented in a way that undermined Baghdad’s authority. The Kurdistan Region gained significant autonomy over its resources, especially oil, reducing the central government’s revenues and influence.

• Budget Crises

Disputes over the Kurdistan Region’s share of the national budget have led to tensions and mistrust between Baghdad and Erbil.

• Partisan Priorities over Public Welfare

Kurdish leaders have prioritized consolidating regional and partisan power over building a sustainable federal model, creating a deep disconnect between citizens and their leaders.

• Democratic Deficits

Weak democratic institutions and lack of transparency in the Kurdistan Region have prevented federalism from benefiting the population.

• Public Protests

In recent years, protests in Kurdistan against corruption, mismanagement, and lack of public services have escalated, reflecting growing public dissatisfaction.

• Resource Mismanagement and Oil Revenue Disputes

Control over oil revenues remains a major source of conflict between the central government and the Kurdistan Region.

The Kurdistan Region’s unilateral oil contracts have caused political crises and increased tensions.

• Lack of Transparency

Opaque management of oil revenues has eroded trust among citizens and between the Kurdistan Region and Baghdad.

• Ethnic and Nationalist Challenges

Kurdish leaders have long pursued independence and secession from Iraq, heightening distrust between the central government and Arab communities.

Outcomes of Federalism in Iraq
• Neither Kurds nor Arabs have seen significant improvements in their quality of life.
• Corruption, poor public services, and unemployment have diminished hopes for a better future.

Alternative Proposal for Syria;

Limited decentralization or controlled autonomy could provide a better short-term solution for Syria. These models allow for local participation and governance without endangering Syria’s territorial integrity or national sovereignty.

This structured approach could help Syria avoid the pitfalls observed in Iraq’s federal experiment while addressing its unique challenges.

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