Erfan Fard

Will Israel bomb Iran? The Middle East’s tensions

David Barnea, the head of the Israeli Mossad, Tel Aviv, Israel January 16, 2023. (photo credit: REUTERS/AMIR COHEN) and The C.I.A. director, William J. Burns, Capitol Hill -Washington in September 2023. (Credit...Michael Reynolds/EPA, via Shutterstock)

The specter of war casts a long, ominous shadow over Iran, a nation enshrouded in the complexities of religious extremism and geopolitical maneuvering. This is a landscape where the convoluted threads of religious zealotry and political power plays intertwine, shaping a narrative fraught with tension and uncertainty. This evolving scenario sets the stage for a potential escalation of tensions, particularly between Iran and Israel.

In the heart of Tehran, terrorist groups branded as ‘religious octopuses’ of terrorism, ostensibly fighting and operating under the banner of Islamic Resistance, are accused of stirring up chaos across the Middle East. This chaos is not limited to the actions of disparate groups; it’s suggested that these factions, both Sunni and Shiite, receive training from Iran’s Quds Force, along with intelligence and financial backing from the Iranian Ministry of Intelligence, MOIS. Their alleged agenda and target? Destabilizing forces like Israel and the US military presence in the region.

But Iran’s role and narrative is not merely a tale of religious fanaticism. There’s a political dimension, intricately linked to global power dynamics. Tehran, it seems, is aligning itself more closely with Moscow. This alignment and partnership draws a parallel with the Cold War era, where the then-Soviet Union is planned to have fostered unrest in Iran, then under the pro-Western Shah. The suggestion is that today’s Iran, seemingly a supporter of Kremlin’s stance, especially evident in the ongoing Ukraine conflict, is a continuation of past Soviet ambitions.

Recent reports have escalated tensions, suggesting that Tehran might soon acquire a nuclear weapon. This development, if true, could be a catalyst for Israel to take drastic measures against Iran’s nuclear and military facilities, in what could be perceived as a fight for its existential survival.

The complexity of this geopolitical chessboard is further compounded by Iran’s recent missile strikes in Iraq and Pakistan, acts that ostensibly defy international law. These actions raise critical questions about the global community’s response to Iran’s current outlaw regime, which is increasingly seen as a rogue state equipped with nuclear aspirations and missile capabilities and a penchant for supporting terrorism.

This scenario invokes memories of a pivotal historical moment – 45 years ago, the departure of the late Shah of Iran, a ruler perceived by some as a pillar of peace. Today’s world, which readily extends congratulations to new monarchs in the West, seems indifferent to the fate of Iran, highlighting a perceived double standard in international politics.

Today, everyone congratulates the new kings of England and Denmark, but apparently, it was bad for Iran.

The question arises: Why is the idea of a monarchy in Iran, with its rich historical and cultural legacy, met with skepticism? The notion of reinstating a monarchy in Iran, a country with a deep historical legacy, is often met with skepticism, highlighting a disparity in global attitudes.

In this unfolding drama and turmoil, there are no clear winners. The criminal mullah’s regime, with its influence extending into American and European politics, is a testament to the global reach of this crisis. Meanwhile, the US, preoccupied with its own electoral battles, appears to be in a diplomatic quandary. Neither Biden nor Trump seems inclined towards a regime change in Iran, a stance that might undermine America’s strategic interests in the Persian Gulf and the broader Middle East.

In summary, if Iran continues on its current trajectory, an Israeli offensive might seem inevitable to some. However, some believe that an Israeli attack might become inevitable. Such a development could plunge the region into new depths of chaos and bloodshed, the consequences of which are unpredictable and potentially catastrophic. As the world watches and waits, perhaps wondering if a different approach to Iran might yield a more peaceful outcome. The only solution is regime change.

About the Author
Erfan Fard is a counter-terrorism analyst and Middle East Studies researcher based in Washington, DC. He is in Middle Eastern regional security affairs with a particular focus on Iran, Counter terrorism, IRGC, MOIS and Ethnic conflicts in MENA. \He graduated in International Security Studies (London M. University, UK), and in International Relations (CSU-LA), and is fluent in Persian, Kurdish, Arabic and English. Follow him in this twitter account @EQFARD
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