12 days of war
It was perhaps the most climatic moment of the 12 Day War.
Israeli fighter jets were minutes away from dealing a devastating blow to dozens of Iranian regime targets across Tehran.
Iran’s blue skies were open for business and IAF pilots streamed across unhindered.
“Hold fire,” the commander’s voice crackled over the radio thousands of kilometers across airspace.
The ceasefire had been broken earlier that morning when Tehran launched additional missiles towards Haifa.
Since launching the surprise, preemptive strike 12 days earlier, the IDF had systematically taken apart the Islamic Republic’s air defenses, carving out an aerial expressway from Israel to Persia.
For decades, Iran had built up one’s of the world’s most formidable aerial defense frameworks – a densely packed sky-wall of overlapping anti-aircraft systems extending from Tabriz in the north to Shiraz in the south.
Sensitive nuclear and regime sites deep inside Iran were covered by multiple additional layers of Surface to Air missiles – some locally produced, some American or Soviet holdovers from a bygone era.
Using precise intelligence, the IDF picked off these systems one by one, puncturing a hole in the invisible barricade that extended high up into the atmosphere.
Meanwhile the IRGC’s top air command had been eliminated in one fell swoop on the first day of the war, whilst Iran’s aging and obsolete air force was mostly taken out while still on the ground.
Iran’s remaining aircraft refrained from engaging with incoming Israeli jets directly, hurriedly rushing to land to avoid confrontation each time anew.
From Qom to Kermanshe, Tabriz to Tehran, Israel had achieved near complete air supremacy as IAF jets sortied unperturbed across Iranian skies.
The high stakes were evident to everyone: Iran remained motivated as ever to shoot down an Israeli plane and capture it’s crew alive.
It was the victory image they craved to offset their loss of face.
For Israeli society, reeling from 20 months of war and 50 hostages still being held in Gaza, another ‘Ron Arad’ would’ve hit like a ton of bricks.
And yet, imbued with purpose and mission and with all of Israel behind them, the pilots of the IAF took off each time anew, risking their lives miles away across hostile airspace to take the fight to the heart of the lion’s den.
Now, the crown jewels of Tehran stood in their sights.
By this point Iran had been left with few good options.
It’s stockpile of ballistic missiles – and more importantly – missile launchers, dwindling by the day, key means of rocket production knocked out and nuclear research facilities rendered inoperable.
The proxy armies Tehran had painstakingly built and funded across the Middle East as part of it’s doctrine of ‘exporting the Islamic revolution’ outside of Iran now lay in shambles after nearly 2 years of war.
The noose around Israel’s neck had been broken – Syria’s Assad regime collapsed, Hamas in Gaza teetering on it’s final legs, Palestinian Islamic Jihad now a shell of it’s former self and the Houthis in Yemen bereft of their benefactor.
And most astonishingly – all was quiet on the Northern Front, as Iran’s main insurance policy, Hezbollah, offered words of support but not warfare after being decimated last year.
Isolated and alone, Iran resorted to launching over 550 ballistic missiles and 1,000 attack drones at the Jewish state.
Israel’s air defense systems had a stunning 90% interception rate against the ballistic missiles and a 99.9% success rate against the drones.
Tragically, of the 10% of missiles that did penetrate, 30 people — all civilians — were killed, as Iran cynically targeted heavily built up suburbs and critical civilian infrastructure such as the Soroka medical center in Be’er Sheva, the Bazan refinery in Haifa and the Weizmann Institute of Science in Rehovot.
In many cases Iran packed conventional warheads with cluster munitions, in order to ensure a larger blast radius and cause maximum damage across a wider area – the very definition of ‘indiscriminate bombing’.
Hundreds of buildings were damaged and thousands of Israelis left temporarily homeless.
Unable to defend their skies or stop further aerial forays into their territory – the Iranian regime likely arrived at a calculus that the only way to stop Israel would be by extracting maximum civilian costs on Israel’s home front with the hope that it would lead to internal pressure to stop the war.
Yet by day 12, Israeli society and the IDF still had more in them while the Iranian regime’s missile and nuclear facilities still hadn’t been dealt that decisive knockout blow.
The abrupt ceasefire came a surprise to all whilst Iran’s speedy violation gave those on the ground the impression that we were back to business and the time had come to finish off the work that had been started.
And then came President Trump’s tweet: “don’t”.
Issuing orders on Social Media, the tweet quickly made the rounds across the hallowed halls and command centers of the IDF while the planes were mid-air.
In what felt like an eternity, Prime Minister Netanyahu and the military top brass deliberated their options in real time.
The jets edged ever closer to their targets, soon to near the threshold of no return.
“Stand down and turn around,” came the order finally after a couple of minutes – to the sound of gasps and disbelief.
“Roger, standing down” the pilots confirmed over the radio.
Dozens of jets aligned in perfect formation careened 180 degrees across an empty sky.
A symbolic target – an unmanned radar site north of Tehran – was selected as a kind of warning shot against additional ceasefire violations.
The planes made their way back to Israel, each still laden with a full arsenal and ready to deploy another day.
By all standards Israel scored a massive tactical victory.
The opening strike of the war – simultaneously taking out IRGC commanders, nuclear scientists and ballistic missile launchers – will undoubtedly be studied in military academies for years to come.
While bomb damage assessments (BDA) are ongoing – particular of the Fordo and Isfahan nuclear sites that are buried deep underground – it’s clear to all that Iran’s nuclear infrastructure has suffered the most major setback in it’s history.
Having the US take part in the strikes was a huge diplomatic and strategic win for Israel, showing the international community that the world’s foremost superpower is prepared to throw it’s weight behind Israel in it’s opposition to a nuclear Iran.
The ‘barrier of fear’ has been broken and now Israel is far more confident in striking Iran directly to enforce future nuclear violations.
Pre-war estimates by Israel’s security establishment talked of casualties hundreds of orders of magnitude higher than what they were in practice.
The number of ballistic missiles that Iran fired over the course of two weeks was actually estimated to be equivalent to the amount that they would fire per day – to deadly effect that we saw.
30 lives were taken from us, thousands rendered homeless and the economic cost of rebuilding damaged infrastructure might be in the billions of shekels.
But in 12 short days we prevented a nuclear Iran, giving the Jewish state a lifeline for generations to come.
An Israel living under the shadow of an Iranian nuclear umbrella would be a depressed and fearful society, kowtowing to the unpredictability of a regime that denies the Holocaust with one hand while threatening a nuclear Holocaust with another.
Out of all the countries of the world opposed to a nuclear Iran, Israel alone absorbed the cost and shouldered the burden of taking Tehran head on.
The ’12 day war’ certainly had echoes of the ‘6 day war’ in terms of it’s speed, blazing efficiency and it’s transformative effect.
With the Holocaust still within collective memory, the Jewish state that once vowed “Never Again” lived up to it’s sacred promise once more.
Iran might still harbor nuclear ambitions, it still might have the knowhow and perhaps some infrastructure and enriched uranium to left to break out to a bomb sometime in the future.
However if that past offers any clues, it’s that when rogue states have their nuclear infrastructure targeted, they diverge away from atomic aspirations.
Such was the case when Israel destroyed Iraq’s nuclear reactor at Osiraq in 1981 and Syria’s nuclear weapons program in 2007.
In both cases, the Saddam Hussein and Assad regimes gave up their nuclear ambitions once they were stopped by brute military force.
The converse also holds true: had Israel not destroyed Saddam’s and Assad’s path the bomb, they would still likely be with us today – wielding their nuclear weapons as the ultimate deterrent to any attempts to usurp their rule.
The same would have held true had the US had the foresight to take out North Korea’s nuclear weapons program a decade ago.
For now, Israelis can breathe a sigh of relief, but Jewish history teaches us that tactical victories do not always translate into long term strategic outcomes particularly when the aftermath is marked by an aura of invisibility, complacency – or societal infighting.
Israel reveled in euphoria following the 1967 Six Day War which led the security establishment to dismiss and ignore warning signs ahead of the outbreak of the 1973 Yom Kippur War – the deadliest war in Israel’s history.
The concept of ‘deterrence’ collapsed on October 7th.
Our enemies are still as motivated as ever to harm us. The only way to guarantee our security is not to rely on the semblance of ‘quiet for quiet’ but to actively and kinetically diminish their offensive capabilities.
2,000 years ago the Maccabees scored a stunning military victory against a far superior foe – the Greeks – recapturing Jerusalem, rededicated the Temple and restoring full Jewish sovereignty in the Land of Israel.
However internal infighting and political bickering eventually led to civil war in the Jewish Commonwealth, ending with Roman involvement and the loss of Jewish independence.
Disagreements and differences of opinion are a part of every healthy society and can be an asset, but once these become the main focus and each political camp seeks to come out on top at the expense of the other, the downward spiral is abrupt and aggressive.
The threat of internal societal division is likely Israel’s greatest danger of all.
We have only one ship and if someone digs a hole on their wing then everyone sinks.
Conversely – intense collaboration and a shared sense of purpose and destiny is likely our greatest strength.
These last 12 days were precisely that:
An intense collaboration between different and sometimes dueling agencies within Israel’s security establishment.
Never before has there been such a high level of cooperation at such intensity and for such a long period of time. Books will be written about it in the future.
The work of first responders – whether from the IDF’s Home Front Command or from Civil Society – Magen David Adom, Hatzalah, Zaka and others.
Or the kindness of everyday people, who spontaneously gathered clothes and donations or offered their homes as shelter to those displaced.
As I look back to the past two years I feel that I have lived through a chapter of the Tanach.
The existential angst of my grandparent that I inherited and that I felt so strongly on the morning of October 7th, the pride of serving in Miluim, the heartbreak and loss of burying comrades, neighbors and brothers in arms, the confusion and nihilism of occasionally returning to the routine of Hi Tech or running for a bomb shelter with my kids.
But also the high of family simchas (yes life goes on), the birth of our son, our parents making Aliyah, raising our children as native-born Sabras, the tears I get seeing them trot around bare feet in the Biblical hills overlooking the Coastal Plane – knowing that my great great grandparents yearned to witness it.
Nothing to me symbolizes the Return to Zion more than that.
For now, this round of Miluim is wrapping up but the fight isn’t over.
Storm clouds still gather over the North and East, a muffled voice over the radio announces additional IDF soldiers that fell in battle this morning, our 50 hostages lie in wait in the tunnels of Gaza, internal societal divisions still bubble just beneath the surface.
The Lion of Judah has awakened from his slumber.
Now he must turn outward and inward to repel those that still seek him harm, return those that are lost, restore that which has been broken and repair and heal the many fractures of our wounded people.
The words of non-Jewish prophet Balaam uttered about Israel many thousands of years ago still rings true today:
“When he crouches down like a lion, who can raise him? Blessed be those that bless him, cursed be those that curse him.”
