2024 is The Year of Election Cyclones and a US Presidential Tornado

2024 will go down in history as the year of election cyclones and a US presidential tornado.  UK voters, fed up with 14 years of Conservatives in power, passed the baton to Keir Starmer, marking a historic change of guards at Number 10.  Snap elections in France decimated the centrist coalition of Emmanuel Macron by bringing the hard left and hard right to the table.  Moldovans finally parted ways with the Soviet nostalgia and with a razor-thin margin cleared the path to the EU membership.  Meanwhile, Georgia (the country), following contested parliamentary elections, shelved EU aspirations in favor of closer ties with Moscow.

In the Global South, ruling parties suffered unexpected losses in India and Turkey, despite the unwavering mojo of Modi and Erdogan.  Glass ceiling was broken in Mexico, where a female president was elected for the first in history, ushering a watershed moment even by the standards of US and Canada.  Conversely, no surprises were spotted in Russia with incumbent leader Vladimir Putin securing a decisive victory after capturing almost 90% of the votes.

Yet the only election in this electoral carousel that truly matters beyond borders takes place on Tuesday, November 5^th.  Sorry Mexico, UK, Russia, and Moldova, but nothing else comes close in importance for the rest of the world.

The Matters of Size or the Size Matters

First, don’t believe the size does not matter.  In real life it does.  At $27 trillion, the United States is still the largest economy in the world.  China comes second with $18 trillion and growing, but has no elections to worry about.  This sheer size of American GDP exerts an outsized influence on every country, even adversaries and distant islands.

But it is not just the size.  Since the global pandemic, the US has turbocharged past other advanced nations in economic recovery and stock market growth.  Furthermore, recently the country has turned the page on inflation, allowing the Fed to finally lower the interest rates in September.  Another cut is expected in November.  The dollar still reigns supreme in international trade.

At the same time, it is not all sunshine and rainbows. The US national debt has officially eclipsed $35 trillion or 110% of the GDP, which is a historic peak.  Moreover, the Congressional Budget Office forecasts that the US debt to GDP ratio will actually increase to more than 160% over the next decades.

By this virtue of centrality to the global economy any finetuning of American GDP will produce powerful reverberations across both developed and developing states.

The World is a Mess and Getting Messier

Second, with rising global volatility, geopolitics is back in the game.  Borders are again being moved by force in Europe.  The Middle East is in turmoil and sliding into chaos.  Russia is economically bleeding under the crushing weight of Western sanctions.  China is saber-rattling and threatens to retake Taiwan by all means if necessary.  Make no mistake, the world is a mess and getting messier.

While presidential campaigns in the US were in full swing, key decisions on critical foreign policy issues were indefinitely postponed.  Now with election booths opening across the country, capitals around the world are anxiously awaiting who will occupy the White House.  Historically, presidential nominees have had conflicting views on the state of world affairs and American national interests.  This time is no different.

It will not be an exaggeration to say that peace and security or lack thereof in distant corners of the world will depend on who is elected to the White House.  The political map of the world is literally in the hands of an American voter.  This is no figure of speech but the grim reality on the ground for many nations in peril.  Ask Ukraine.

US is a trendsetter

Third, the United States has been consistently viewed as the most influential soft power nation in the world.  With this arsenal of hard and soft power an American president leads the world by example or extortion in good and bad ways.  Like it or not, whatever happens in America, doesn’t stay in America.

Globalization, for example, previously prospered and now flounders under American tutelage. The ascent of the Industrial Renaissance on American soil uprooted transnational firms and triggered the nearshoring of global supply chains.

American’s way is both powerful and contagious.  Erection of protectionist walls, skepticism of climate change, devaluation of currency, tariffication of international trade, and draconian deportation of migrants will be mirrored across the world.  But what cannot be achieved by carrots, is enforced by sticks. Compliance with most American sanctions against Russia with the exception of a few rogue regimes is a perfect illustration.

With so much at stake, we will soon find out what kind of world we’re living in.