2026 Election: Political Deadlock Brings Arab Parties to Center Stage

The final results of the 26th Knesset election have left Israel facing one of its most complex political crises in recent years. Benjamin Netanyahu leads the largest party, Likud, with 27 seats, but his bloc secured only 53 seats, compared with 48 for the bloc led by Gadi Eisenkot. The Arab parties, which won 19 seats combined, have effectively become kingmakers in the battle to form a government.

The high turnout, at 77.9%, and the Arab parties’ gains—nearly doubling their strength in the outgoing Knesset—were among the election’s defining features. The Joint List won 11 seats, while Ra’am, led by Mansour Abbas, won eight. The result reflects not only a shift in the balance between parties, but also the return of Arab citizens to the center of the political arena.

Netanyahu: Hold the Bloc Together or Reach for the Center

For Netanyahu, the result is a significant political setback. His outgoing coalition held 68 seats; his current bloc has lost 15. His first option is to try to preserve his alliance with the ultra-Orthodox parties, Religious Zionism and Otzma Yehudit, while seeking at least eight additional lawmakers by recruiting defectors or new partners.

Another possibility is a broad unity government with some centrist and moderate right-wing parties. But that would require him to part with some of his current partners, and in particular to contend with opposition from Itamar Ben-Gvir and Bezalel Smotrich. Statements by Eisenkot and Naftali Bennett that they would not serve in a government led by Netanyahu further complicate that prospect.

His best option, then, may be to call another election. In a new vote, Arab turnout and mobilization among the Change bloc are expected to be lower, improving his chances of winning. For now, he is focused on delegitimizing the Arab vote and preventing the bloc opposed to him from taking control of the Knesset.

Eisenkot: Between a Change Government and Arab Partnership

Gadi Eisenkot, whose Yashar party won 21 seats and became the main force in the anti-Netanyahu bloc, faces a difficult dilemma. Together with Bennett, Yair Lapid, Yair Golan and Avigdor Lieberman, his bloc holds just 48 seats.

The clearest path on paper is to rely on the Arab parties. If all 19 Arab lawmakers back a change government, it could command 67 seats. Even the support of 13 would be enough for a majority of 61. But such cooperation would be politically difficult: Bennett, Lieberman and Eisenkot have previously expressed serious reservations about forming a coalition with the Arab parties.

Yair Golan, leader of the Democrats, has voiced support for a political partnership with Ra’am and has advocated broader Jewish-Arab cooperation. Mansour Abbas, too, has signaled that he is willing to negotiate with the camp seeking to replace Netanyahu. But Ra’am and the Joint List are not a unified political bloc, and their interests do not necessarily align.

Another election would not be a good option for this bloc, which appears to have reached the limits of its electoral potential.

Eisenkot’s best move, therefore, may be to work with the Arab parties to replace the Knesset speaker, take control of parliamentary committees, pass legislation repealing laws tied to Netanyahu’s judicial overhaul, and try to win over lawmakers from the other camp.

Arab Parties: From Electoral Strength to Political Power?

The 19 seats give Arab representatives an opportunity to influence the makeup of the government and the national agenda. Their demands are expected to focus on tackling crime and violence in Arab society, securing development budgets, improving infrastructure and employment, and advancing civil equality.

Yet electoral strength does not automatically translate into influence in government. If the Zionist parties refuse to work with them, Arab representatives could remain outside the centers of decision-making despite their historic gains.

What Happens Next?

The next step will be consultations with President Isaac Herzog, after the official results are delivered to him on November 4. The new Knesset is expected to convene and be sworn in on November 10. Meanwhile, Netanyahu and Eisenkot will seek to build support, explore the possibility of a unity government and negotiate with parties that could reshape the political landscape.

If both leaders fail, another election could become a real possibility.

The takeaway: The election gave neither camp a decisive victory. Netanyahu remains the most powerful political figure as head of a bloc, but he has lost the majority he once held. Eisenkot scored a significant achievement but cannot form a government without additional partners. And the Arab parties, for the first time in years, hold enough parliamentary power to help determine who governs next. The central question is not only who will form the government, but whether Israeli politics can overcome boycotts and red lines to produce a stable administration.