A Few Thousand Votes Can Change Everything

I’ve decided to vote for a party that has spent much of the campaign hovering just above Israel’s electoral threshold. So I looked into the mathematics and discovered just how much difference a few thousand votes can make. Even our individual votes matter.

I read on Shabbat in Torah Tidbits about families who once dressed in their Shabbat clothes to go and vote, recognising what an important occasion it was. I love that idea. It’s also a reminder that a vote is something to be thought about, not just cast.

I’ve thought carefully about mine. It’s a decision many of us have struggled with, and I’ve finally made it.

I’m voting for the Reservists–Economic Party, led by Yoaz Hendel and Yaron Zelekha, with Einat Wilf on its list. (Not to be confused with Ofer Winter’s party, which is entirely separate.)

My reasons are personal. I’m the father of a soldier who fought in a special forces unit on October 7 and in the fighting that followed, and who is now a reservist. I believe those who have served and played such a crucial role in Israel’s security since October 7 deserve a voice in the Knesset, particularly as Israel confronts the need for accountability and a thorough investigation into what happened on that day.

I also have considerable respect for Einat Wilf and her articulate advocacy for Israel since October 7. Integrity matters enormously to me. I want representatives who remember that they serve the citizens, not the other way around.

Initially, I too considered voting for a larger mainstream party. There’s comfort in knowing your chosen party will almost certainly enter the Knesset.

But I’ve decided to take a risk and vote on principle.

As a CPA who spent much of his career assessing risk and return, I naturally investigated the numbers. Old habits die hard.

And here’s where the mathematics becomes fascinating.

Israel uses a nationwide system of proportional representation, with an electoral threshold of 3.25%. Fall just below it and your party receives no seats at all. Cross it and the party qualifies for representation, generally around four seats.

Assuming approximately 5.1 million valid votes, the difference between 3% and 3.25% is approximately 13,000 votes.

In the 2022 election, Meretz missed the threshold by only around 4,000 votes.

Four thousand votes, out of nearly five million.

Many of my English-speaking readers come from America or Britain, where things work very differently. Researchers calculated that the average American voter in the 2008 presidential election had roughly a one-in-60-million chance of casting the decisive vote. In Israel, a few thousand votes regularly decide which parties sit in the Knesset at all.

A few thousand votes can change the composition of the Knesset, and potentially the balance of power in government.

I understand the risk. A smaller party might fail to cross the threshold, leaving its supporters without direct parliamentary representation and, yes, potentially wasting precious votes.

But I’m prepared to accept that uncertainty. In economic terms, I’m taking a chance on a relatively small shift in votes producing a disproportionately large result.

Polls aren’t election results. What matters is what voters actually do. So many people I know decide at the last minute to vote for a mainstream party. This year, I won’t be one of them.

I’ve spent the years since October 7 writing extensively about Israel, its security and its international standing, both here in The Times of Israel and on LinkedIn. I know my influence is limited. But having advocated for Israel for so long, I don’t think I should shy away from expressing my own electoral choice, even if it has taken me rather a long time to decide.

There’s a certain irony in encouraging people not to waste their votes when I may be taking precisely that risk myself!

But I’ve considered my principles, studied the numbers and made my decision. Others will make theirs, and I respect that.

I hope turnout is high across Israel, including among those supporting Zionist parties. Voting is a privilege and a responsibility, whatever our political differences. Perhaps even one worth dressing up for.

A few thousand votes really can change everything.