A fragile peace: The potential risks from Israel’s neighboring states

The Middle East remains a volatile region, where the unexpected can become reality overnight. As Israel focuses on urgent challenges such as the return of hostages from Gaza, dismantling Hamas’ regime, and countering Iran’s nuclear ambitions, it must not neglect the broader, long-term challenges looming on the horizon. The stability of Israel’s key neighbors is crucial for its long-term security. However, the region is experiencing a period of significant instability, with internal pressures and external influences threatening to undermine existing regimes.

Egypt’s military buildup: A threat in disguise?

One of these potential threats stems from Egypt, a country with a growing military capability and strategic implications for Israel’s national security. Just last month, the United States announced a $5 billion arms deal with Egypt, underscoring the country’s prioritization of military strength. This comes even as Egypt suffers severe economic challenges, exacerbated by disruptions in Suez Canal traffic caused by Houthi activity – a vital source of revenue for its GDP. These developments raise an uncomfortable question: why does Egypt, a country with no external military threats and a crumbling economy, continue to pour billions into its military?

The answer partly lies in Egypt’s ongoing view of Israel as a key military challenge. Despite the peace treaty, Egypt’s military regularly conducts exercises simulating confrontations with Israeli forces. These maneuvers raise a concern that Egypt’s stance could change, with serious implications for Israel. Israel must internalize the lessons of October 7th, where a catastrophic failure to anticipate an adversary’s intentions had devastating consequences. While the current “strategic partnership” is valuable, Israel must remain cautious, as regional dynamics can shift rapidly. The fall of the Assad regime in Syria serves as a stark reminder of how quickly leadership changes can alter security landscapes, a potential risk for Israel’s neighbors as well.

Internally, Egypt’s economic crisis, marked by rampant inflation, widespread poverty, and crippling debt, is deepening instability. This creates an environment where President Sisi’s government is vulnerable to challenges from radical Islamist groups. History shows that prioritizing military spending over economic reform increases the risk of unrest and the collapse of regimes. If Egypt’s government were to fall, extremist factions or regional powers could take advantage, potentially using Egypt’s huge military against Israel and reshaping the region’s balance of power.

Jordan’s fragile monarchy

Jordan, another of Israel’s key neighbors, faces similar vulnerabilities. With a Sunni majority that largely opposes the monarchy and significant economic challenges, Jordan’s stability cannot be taken for granted. The potential collapse of the Hashemite regime poses a serious threat to Israel. A hostile regime emerging in Jordan, potentially backed by Iran, Turkey, or extremist groups, would dramatically alter the security landscape. Securing the 500-kilometer-long border with a hostile entity would strain Israel’s military resources and divert attention from other critical security challenges.

 A call for proactive measures

I believe that in the face of these looming threats, Israel cannot afford complacency. The government must prioritize intelligence and military preparedness regarding both Egypt and Jordan. To address these challenges, several steps are necessary:

1. Military Preparedness: To effectively counter potential threats, Israel must enhance its intelligence capabilities, not only focusing on military assets but also understanding the political and social dynamics that could destabilize Egypt and Jordan. Additionally, resources should be redirected to strengthen defenses along the southern and eastern borders, including multi-front conflict simulations and contingency plans for regime changes in Cairo or Amman.
2. Diplomatic Engagement: While maintaining a strong peace treaty with Egypt, Israel must also engage in quiet diplomacy with the US and European allies to actively convey the potential risks associated with Egypt’s military buildup. This engagement should aim to encourage a shared understanding of the challenges and foster a collaborative approach to mitigating potential threats.
3. Regional Cooperation: Strengthening alliances with other moderate Arab states is crucial. Israel’s growing ties with the Gulf provide a valuable opportunity to counterbalance Egypt’s military ambitions and mitigate the impact of potential regime changes in Egypt or Jordan.

Israel’s immediate challenges are undoubtedly pressing, but the broader regional picture cannot be ignored. The potential for regime changes in Egypt and Jordan represents a strategic risk that demands foresight and preparation. As history has shown, the cost of complacency in the Middle East is steep. By taking proactive measures today, Israel can safeguard its future and ensure it remains prepared for the uncertainties that lie ahead. The stakes are too high to watch passively from the sidelines; Israel must act decisively to secure its national interests.