A unilateral recognition of ‘Palestine’ would be a security threat to Europe

At the beginning of this week, French officials said Macron is leaning towards recognizing a Palestinian state ahead of the UN conference with France and Saudi Arabia. Riyadh has yet to publicly announce whether Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman will attend the event.

An Arab diplomat told The Times of Israel that the Bin Salaman will show up if France decides to recognize Palestine. However, the issue remains under discussion and it is difficult to make predictions.

Indeed, a unilateral recognition by France, or any other European country, would not only undermine European unity, and its credibility on foreign policy, but it would also create a wedge with the United States, damaging the transatlantic alliance at a time of global uncertainty when cohesion is needed to face Russia, China and the Iranian threat.

The US administration is in fact against any unilateral recognition of a Palestinian state as it would undercut a coordinated transatlantic approach and harm prospects for a lasting peace settlement. In addition, it would also be a reward for Hamas’ shocking attack on Israel.

A unilateral recognition by European governments would also be an act of animosity towards Israel since EU leaders often insist that Israel cannot impose unilateral decisions or outcomes such as enacting sovereignty over Judea and Samaria or dictate on Gaza’s future. However, these same European actors are now willing to impose a Palestinian state without any consultation or negotiation with Israel or Palestinian elected representatives.

Domestically speaking, Macron is in a difficult political situation as his party massively lost consensus and he is therefore looking for votes among the broad Muslim population, therefore hoping that aligning with their positions will help.

Going beyond the political aspects of the issue, there are some important considerations to make regarding security, and not just concerning Israel, but Europe as well.

Firstly, as already highlighted by the US administration, a French unilateral recognition of a Palestinian state would be a victory for Hamas and it would encourage terrorist organizations to perpetrate more October 7^th-style attacks all over the West. Such a move would also boost Hamas’ image as it would show the world that by perpetrating the biggest pogrom against the Jews since the Holocaust, Hamas obtained what other Palestinian groups did not achieve in their lifetime.

Moreover, in the West, the Palestinian cause has become an excuse for Islamist and far-left groups who, under the guise of so-called “anti-Zionism”, have been spreading antisemitism. A unilateral recognition would also encourage these groups to perpetrate more attacks as they would feel backed by the decision-makers.

Secondly, Islamists and jihadists in Europe have been energized by the European attempts to appease the Palestinians. It is essential to keep in mind that the Palestinian issue is being exploited by the Islamists to gather consensus and to have an impact on European politics. Several Islamist preachers already stated that Islam will conquer Europe through demographics and Islamists have been infiltrating European society, politics, and decision-making circles. Their objective is to erode European core principles and values from within and push forward Sharia-oriented laws.

A confidential report by the French Foreign Ministry leaked in May 2025 exposed a long-term subversive Islamist plan to infiltrate the institutions and change them from within. Among the objectives, influencing EU policymakers on immigration and the Palestinian cause.

Furthermore, Islamist preachers active in Europe (several of whom have been expelled) are well aware that many young Muslims, not just the second and third generations, but also those without citizenship, are hostile towards European society and are resentful towards the institutions. They are receptive to radicalization and represent a huge pool of potential foot soldiers to be unleashed against France and Europe. It is important not to forget that a good portion of the volunteers who joined ISIS in Syria and Iraq came out of Europe, particularly France, Belgium and Great Britain.

Israel is on the frontline in the war against jihadism and it is fighting for Europe as well, providing European intelligence agencies with essential information. Hamas’ jihadist threat must be defeated, not politically appeased and that is exactly what the United States and moderate Arab states are insisting on.

By unilaterally recognizing a Palestinian state, France would show weakness and fear of the “Arab/Muslim street”. Such a move would not bring peace and stability and, on the contrary, it would lead to more serious security issues, and more turmoil. The Islamists would think that terrorism works and they would raise the stakes inside Europe. It is therefore important to reconsider the situation and support the fight against Hamas, just like it has been done with ISIS, without any type of double standard.