Nothing misleads better than faulty statistics reported by number dyslexics
Most medical-statistical nonsense is made public by physicians who don’t understand statistics and reported by journalists who’re blind to numbers.
But some medical misinformation is deliberate. This is when numbers are abused to ‘prove’ drama: victimhood and disaster.
Besides, doctors have reasons to hide the population is coping very well as that is detrimental to their income. Reporters too have a vested interest in reporting misfortune since, when all is well, there’s no news or readership.
New statistics want us to believe that Israelis suffer negative health effects from the war. We might be, but that’s not born out by these numbers.
The researchers discuss ‘the likelihood’ of taking medication, showing they don’t know Statistics 101. Maybe you can say you expect a change in certain behavior, but wars don’t make it ‘more likely’ we do something.
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The first report would show a ‘rise in obesity, smoking, and excessive drug consumption for sleep and anti-anxiety, and a decline in cancer screening.’
Let’s review these points one by one for outsiders.
Obesity. Rates among young people aged 14-15 rose from 12.8% (2022) to 13.2% (2023). No number of subjects, margin of error, or earlier rise or fall of obesity were presented, so this just looks insignificant.
The diabetes rate in adults rose from 10.3% (2022) to 10.5% (2023), especially in the North and the South. That’s where most Muslims live. Diabetes doesn’t jump up after a sudden change of eating habits. How is this related to the war? How is a ‘jump’ from 1 in 10 to 1 in 10 significant?
This is all self-evident if readers would look at the numbers. But many of us probably look mostly at the dramatic ‘conclusions’ and headlines.
In two years, smoking went slightly ‘up’ from 20.9% (2021) to 21% (2023).
Next, we read about ‘a sharp increase’ in the use of sleep, anti-anxiety, and antidepressant medications, from 3.5% (2022) to 6% (2023), especially in the regions with Chezbollah rocket fire. This is too ridiculous for words.
Can you relax enough to go to sleep when so many nights, rockets fly, and, at a moment’s notice, you and kids need to dive toward your safe space?
These medications are not because people are stressed but because they live under stress. “An abnormal reaction to an abnormal situation is normal behavior,” explained Viktor Frankl in 1946 on how people went about surviving the concentration camps. Stop pathologizing the population!
Early cancer detection. A ‘concerning decrease’ of mammography tests for ages 50-74 from 71.8% (2022) to 70.5% (2023). In lay terms, it went from 7 in 10 to 7 in 10. Yet, an ‘encouraging increase’ for cervical cancer tests for ages 24-52 from 67.2% (2022) to 68.7% (2023). In lay terms, it went from 7 in 10 to 7 in 10. Is this really concerning and encouraging?
Antibiotic. A ‘concerning increase’ in use in Israel, from 674 prescriptions (2021) to 754 prescriptions per 1,000 people (2023). This two-year trend certainly doesn’t show a war effect, though it is recorded during war, and surely lacks a plausible causal relationship. It might be related to Corona.
Flu vaccination. A ‘dramatic decrease’ among the elderly is reported. from 70% (2020) to 60.6% (2022) to 54.1% (2023). Totally forgotten (or hidden) is that at the height of the coronavirus isolation, there was no flu in Israel and the health funds could throw away their fresh vaccines. Maybe that set off this multi-year trend, but it surely has nothing to do with the war.
Prof. Nachman Ash, chairman of the National Institute for Health Policy, says the report reveals ‘concerning trends regarding citizens’ health.’ He and the medical reporter sound the alarm about absolutely nothing at all!
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‘Toll of war: People 317% more likely to use anti-anxiety medication after October 7’ reads the alarming headline. The nonsense is also published by another news outlet. The new Maccabi Health Services ‘study’ is based on 19 years of medical data. Surprisingly, the first paper admits it is awaiting both peer review and print, and even an Internet link is provided.
Maccabi’s Research and Innovation Center Director and Lecturer Dr. Tal Patalon (medical specialty not included) said the war ‘drastically changed reality for everyone–patients and healthcare providers alike. The sharp increase in anxiety medication use highlights the urgent need for tailored mental health interventions in acute settings during times of conflict.’
The journalist explains that during our war ‘people were 317% more likely to seek out anxiety-related [sic] prescriptions.’ Let’s look at the report quoted. Only a summary is online. The report’s headline is, ‘Coping with Conflict: Short-Term Anxiolytic Medication Use Amidst National Stress in Israel.’ The first and basic flaw is the baseless assumption that pills that make you calm are taken because people have anxiety. As mentioned above, people who live under stress are not necessarily stressed!
It spoke of a ‘317% increased risk for treatment initiation,’ which means that during this war 3.17 times as many people began taking tranquilizers than during peacetime. That is not ‘317% more anti-anxiety medication.’
Maybe 10% of the population uses psychopharmaceuticals. Every year, maybe 2% begins such. But during war that is thrice, so 6%. That raises the use during war, temporarily, from 10% to 14% (10+6-2), not to 30%.
Urgent intervention needs to prevent these tranquilizers from becoming addictive? But peak use only during war shows, people don’t get addicted.
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Never trust statistics from those who may increase their fame and income or journalists or AI cluelessly copying statistics. Nobody should be made fun of for not being a ‘math person’ as long as they don’t pretend they are.
MM is a prolific and creative writer and thinker, previously a daily blog contributor to the TOI. He often makes his readers laugh, mad, or assume he's nuts—close to perfect blogging. He's proud that his analytical short comments are removed both from left-wing and right-wing news sites. None of his content is generated by the new bore on the block, AI. *
As a frontier thinker, he sees things many don't yet. He's half a prophet. Half. Let's not exaggerate. Or not at all because he doesn't claim G^d talks to him. He gives him good ideas—that's all. MM doesn't believe that people observe and think in a vacuum. He, therefore, wanted a broad bio that readers interested can track a bit what (lack of) backgrounds, experiences, and educations contribute to his visions. *
This year, he will prioritize getting his unpublished books published rather than just blog posts. Next year, he hopes to focus on activism against human extinction. To find less-recent posts on a subject XXX among his over 2000 archived ones, go to the right-top corner of a Times of Israel page, click on the search icon and search "zuiden, XXX". One can find a second, wilder blog, to which one may subscribe too, here: https://mmvanzuiden.wordpress.com/ or by clicking on the globe icon next to his picture on top. *
Like most of his readers, he believes in being friendly, respectful, and loyal. However, if you think those are his absolute top priorities, you might end up disappointed. His first loyalty is to the truth. He will try to stay within the limits of democratic and Jewish law, but he won't lie to support opinions or people when don't deserve that. (Yet, we all make honest mistakes, which is just fine and does not justify losing support.) He admits that he sometimes exaggerates to make a point, which could have him come across as nasty, while in actuality, he's quite a lovely person to interact with. He holds - how Dutch - that a strong opinion doesn't imply intolerance of other views. *
Sometimes he's misunderstood because his wide and diverse field of vision seldomly fits any specialist's box. But that's exactly what some love about him. He has written a lot about Psychology (including Sexuality and Abuse), Medicine (including physical immortality), Science (including basic statistics), Politics (Israel, the US, and the Netherlands, Activism - more than leftwing or rightwing, he hopes to highlight reality), Oppression and Liberation (intersectionally, for young people, the elderly, non-Whites, women, workers, Jews, LGBTQIA+, foreigners and anyone else who's dehumanized or exploited), Integrity, Philosophy, Jews (Judaism, Zionism, Holocaust and Jewish Liberation), the Climate Crisis, Ecology and Veganism, Affairs from the news, or the Torah Portion of the Week, or new insights that suddenly befell him. *
Chronologically, his most influential teachers are his parents, Nico (natan) van Zuiden and Betty (beisye) Nieweg, Wim Kan, Mozart, Harvey Jackins, Marshal Rosenberg, Reb Shlomo Carlebach, and, lehavdil bein chayim lechayim, Rabbi Dr. Natan Lopes Cardozo, Rav Zev Leff, and Rav Meir Lubin. This short list doesn't mean to disrespect others who taught him a lot or a little. One of his rabbis calls him Mr. Innovation [Ish haChidushim]. Yet, his originalities seem to root deeply in traditional Judaism, though they may grow in unexpected directions. In fact, he claims he's modernizing nothing. Rather, mainly basing himself on the basic Hebrew Torah text, he tries to rediscover classical Jewish thought almost lost in thousands of years of stifling Gentile domination and Jewish assimilation. (He pleads for a close reading of the Torah instead of going by rough assumptions of what it would probably mean and before fleeing to Commentaries.) This, in all aspects of life, but prominently in the areas of Free Will, Activism, Homosexuality for men, and Redemption. *
He hopes that his words will inspire and inform, and disturb the comfortable and comfort the disturbed. He aims to bring a fresh perspective rather than harp on the obvious and familiar. When he can, he loves to write encyclopedic overviews. He doesn't expect his readers to agree. Rather, original minds should be disputed. In short, his main political positions are among others: anti-Trumpism, for Zionism, Intersectionality, non-violence, anti those who abuse democratic liberties, anti the fake ME peace process, for original-Orthodoxy, pro-Science, pro-Free Will, anti-blaming-the-victim, and for down-to-earth, classical optimism, and happiness. Read his blog on how he attempts to bridge any tensions between those ideas or fields. *
He is a fetal survivor of the pharmaceutical industry (https://diethylstilbestrol.co.uk/studies/des-and-psychological-health/), born in 1953 to his parents who were Dutch-Jewish Holocaust survivors who met in the largest concentration camp in the Netherlands, Westerbork. He grew up a humble listener. It took him decades to become a speaker too, and decades more to admit to being a genius. But his humility was his to keep. And so was his honesty. Bullies and con artists almost instantaneously envy and hate him. He hopes to bring new things and not just preach to the choir. *
He holds a BA in medicine (University of Amsterdam) – is half a doctor. He practices Re-evaluation Co-counseling since 1977, is not an official teacher anymore, and became a friendly, powerful therapist. He became a social activist, became religious, made Aliyah, and raised three wonderful kids. Previously, for decades, he was known to the Jerusalem Post readers as a frequent letter writer. For a couple of years, he was active in hasbara to the Dutch-speaking public. He wrote an unpublished tome about Jewish Free Will. He's a strict vegan since 2008. He's an Orthodox Jew but not a rabbi. *
His writing has been made possible by an allowance for second-generation Holocaust survivors from the Netherlands. It has been his dream since he was 38 to try to make a difference by teaching through writing. He had three times 9-out-of-10 for Dutch at his high school finals but is spending his days communicating in English and Hebrew - how ironic. G-d must have a fine sense of humor. In case you wonder - yes, he is a bit dyslectic. If you're a native English speaker and wonder why you should read from people whose English is only their second language, consider the advantage of having an original peek outside of your cultural bubble. *
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His newest books you may find here: https://www.amazon.com/s?i=stripbooks&rh=p_27%3AMoshe-Mordechai%2FMaurits+van+Zuiden&s=relevancerank&text=Moshe-Mordechai%2FMaurits+van+Zuiden&ref=dp_byline_sr_book_1