Are Jewish Voters on the Move? What the Latest Polls Are Telling Us

The Harris-Trump election is proving to be a particularly fascinating election in connection with new data involving some shifting Jewish voter trends. Are more Jews moving into the Republican column?

The Jewish Voter Shift? We are seeing a shift in some voting patterns among a portion of Jewish Democrats. Working with a number of recent polls, we can now project that there appears to be some movement among current and former Jewish Democrats to embrace the Republican ticket. A Pew study offers a somewhat smaller Harris lead, where the Jewish vote is seen to be 65% (Harris) to 35% (Trump).  Another poll, taken of a far smaller sample in New York, gives Kamala Harris a 56% to 37% lead over Donald Trump.

A smaller poll conducted by Honan Strategy Group found Harris with only an 11-point margin over Trump among 400 Jewish voters surveyed from July 26-Aug. 1^st.  This study focused on “swing states” Jewish voters. Along with other polls, we will be examining whether such data will serve as predictors that Democrats may no longer be able to rely on Jewish voters, especially these “purple state” contests.

These new findings, while still premature, do raise an interesting question, are we seeing a different set of political behaviors emerging among swing state Jewish voters than the traditional “blue state” Jewish voting group?

What are the driving factors contributing to this change? We have identified a number of elements, among them the declining support among Democrats for the case for Israel and a particular uncertainty over the future role and influence of “the Squad” in connection with US-Israel relations. Correspondingly, the Vice President is seen as a relatively unknown political figure, raising questions over her commitment and connection with the case for Israel. A fourth factor points to the efforts by Republicans to highlight and celebrate the former President’s active engagement and support for Israel during Donald Trump’s presidency.

It is essential to reiterate that with limited data at hand, it is not possible to predict any significant or long-term implications from these initial polls.

The Anxiety:  There is also significant evidence of a profound level of concern among Jewish voters, be they Trump or Harris, concerning this campaign as each side appears heavily invested in ensuring their candidate as a winner. The degree of unsettledness in connection with this election has accelerated the level of tension.

The Pressure:  Some key Democrats are placing some pressure on the Harris-Walz Campaign to schedule a Jewish event for key stakeholders in order to have an opportunity to clarify the Vice President’s position on a number of critical concerns, including US Middle East policy under a Harris-Walz administration.

Former President Trump is having such a meeting this week with Jewish leaders in DC, prior to his address this weekend to the AIC (American Israel Council) at its Washington Conference.

The Return:  Since October 7^th, the Jewish community has seen the “return” of some Jews, who are reconnecting with synagogues, schools, and various communal organizations in response to the Hamas attack on Israelis and the corresponding rise in antisemitism impacting Jews and Jewish institutions. These voters, who previously had not particularly identified as Jews, are demonstrating a heightened interest in and attention to Jewish political causes and concerns. As a subset of the Jewish vote, what patterns are we likely see within this cohort?

 Targeted Political Ads: Campaigns are increasingly able to target their campaign ads to specific audiences and particular, personalized issues. In the 2024 campaign we are able to identify ads directed to platforms that attract “affinity audiences” who share political priorities. Both campaigns are directing a portion of their advertising budgets to these selected constituencies.

Who is Sitting This One Out? While there remains a concern nationally that some voters will elect to pass up this election, as they are simply burnt out on politics or have given up on American democracy, are these same views present among America’s Jewish voters? There is evidence that up to 10% of previous voters maybe “sitting this one out.” We have little data to confirm that such an election outlook is evident among 2024 Jewish voters.

Where Will They Go? One group of voters that is of particular interest to political scientists involves Gen Z’ers. As a particularly large and newer class of voters, who have strikingly different behaviors and views on many aspects of society and culture, will they show up on November 5 and if so, how might they influence the outcome of this contest? With 8 million first time voters as part of this generational cohort, can they make a difference? A subset of this voting group involve several hundred thousand young Jewish newbie voters, and we will be paying specific attention to this class of first timers!

The Day After: We are finding more commentary within Jewish circles and elsewhere in connection with what might happen in this nation the day after this nation votes, with particular concerns surrounding election conspiracies, charges of voter fraud and even the possibility of civic violence.