Robert S. Miller, at The Blogs

Robert S. Miller

Jul 19, 2026, 2:16 AM

Prediction Markets Called the Iran MOU’s Collapse Before Tehran Did

Five days before Iran suspended the agreement, the Israel Security Index showed that nearly its entire peace dividend had disappeared. Iran formally suspended the Islamabad Memorandum of Understanding Saturday morning. Five days earlier, prediction markets were already showing the agreement...

About Me

Robert S. Miller, PhD, is a former political pollster and policy analyst who now analyzes prediction markets and geopolitical risk. He has written on US–Israel relations for Tablet and publishes an Israel Security Index on Substack.