March 3rd, I wrote: The best, fastest way to rid the Ukrainian and Russian People of Putin is quickly to impoverish Russia. The sanctions really do that. In no time, the richest Russians and the army will replace Putin. I hope they don’t kill him because he needs to be tried for his war crimes.
Putin’s blunder should cost him his reign. On March 17th, I predicted:
1. The Russian economy is in freefall. The oligarchs that upheld Putin will need to remove him to save them from bankruptcy. They have no loyalty.
3. Thousands upon thousands of dead soldiers (what a heartbreak!) and upcoming mutiny by Russian soldiers will tell the population that they have been lied to. They will demand that Putin will be removed and tried.
4. A foreign assassination of the tyrant is impossible but also unnecessary.
And now, I will give some timely advice. I would like the democratic allies of Ukraine to prepare for the world after Putin.
Please connect with Putin’s successor, whoever it may be. The democratic world must reach out in friendship to Russia. It should look like this:
1. Make sure Putin is tried for his crimes against humanity. No one needs to demand a regime change. Only to lock him up.
2. We expect Russia to pay Ukraine for damages (until now, 60 billion for infrastructure) and murders. And then, sanctions can be lifted.
3. However, the international community should strengthen Russia to flourish and go democratic, not weaken it.
4. The West should help establish human rights, freedom of the press, parliamentarian democracy with support for the opposition, etc.
5. The Allies should negotiate with all of Russia’s political parties, army, and oligarchs to reestablish democracy like in Germany after WW II.
6. Part of the agreement should be to hold talks to further mutual nuclear disarmament, the prevention of nuclear Iran, and the spread of full democracy worldwide, including in China and Iran.
If we don’t aim for Paradise on earth, how else would we get there?
I’m still in the woods about the following. In the beginning, many analysts were claiming that Putin ‘needed an honorable way out’ of the conflict. I never believed that. After a few days, this prediction stopped. One expert added: He doesn’t need even a victory. With his hold on the media, he can simply claim to have been victorious. And that’s what we see now. Withdrawing while declaring: “We accomplished phase 1 successfully.”
So far, so good for him. But, while he could sell whatever lie he wants to the public and the world, how is he going to face the truth himself?
1. His advisors lied to him, no doubt reassuring him about his success and power, afraid to tell him about setbacks. So, who should he trust now?
BTW: US and UK intelligence sources now publicly happily throw oil on the fire of the rumors that his advisors are misleading him, as if taunting him thus: In case you missed it, you’re in the dark, and you don’t even know it. The dictators’ scare tactics to underlings have backfired again.
But, Putin mostly has himself to blame for not learning from past failure.
2. What to do now it turns out that ‘his’ army is in such poor shape and largely unwilling to fight an unjust war, which for him means inapt?
Lastly, a message for people in the West criticizing the Russian People for believing and supporting a monster like Putin, who wedges war against innocent countries and sections of the population (LGBTQ) and lies at every turn. Well, look at Trump’s success. If elections were held now, he would get reelected, in a democracy, with freedom of the press, while he is banned from social media, de-trashes fascist organizations and tyrants, trashes Blacks, openly calls a war criminal (his pal Putin) good and smart.