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Ira Straus

Bring Down the Islamic Republic Next

Nasrallah. Sinwar. Next stop: Khamenei.

Israel has its chance in the coming days and weeks, when it finally strikes back in Iran. As American analysts have noted, even if it wants only to restore deterrence it will need to finally break some bones, not just bloody Iran’s nose again. But really it must aim at a legitimate strategic objective, as in Gaza and Lebanon, not just at retribution or deterrence.

It is up to the more serious Israeli analysts to determine whether regime change is more likely to be achieved by going after Iran’s nuclear program, or by going after the regime – Khamenei and his court, IRGC Quds forces – directly.

If Israel brings down the Islamic Republic in the coming period, the entire Axis of Resistance will quickly collapse.

There will be a new Iran. The Iranian people are ready for it by supermajority margins, as shown by careful surveys made inside Iran by exiles. And they are ready not just for a minor alteration, but for a full shift to a liberal regime and to the side of the West.

This will have two bonuses for the wider world: it will finally be possible to fully and safely dismantle Iran’s nuclear weapons program, and Iranian drones will stop going to the Russian war machine. The larger global Axis of Evil, Putin-Xi-Kim, will not disappear but will be significantly shaken.

Hamas and Hezbollah will either collapse or throw in the towel. There will be new regimes in Gaza and Lebanon.

The Syrian regime will pragmatically shift to a pro-Western line. The PA will shift to a more consistently moderate line. A two-state solution will finally become a viable possibility.

Inter-Arab conflicts will not end, but state after state will line up to sign Abraham accords. A spirit of peace will break out across the Middle East.

And Netanyahu will go down in history as a statesman of global proportions. One of the rare number in history who have made the world a better place.

Netanyahu should seize his opportunity.

About the Author
Chair, Center for War/Peace Studies; Senior Adviser, Atlantic Council of the U.S.; formerly a Fulbright professor of international relations; studied at Princeton, UVA, Oxford. Institutions named above for identification purposes only; views expressed herein are solely the responsibility of the author.
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