Can Netanyahu Rely on Trump?

With Donald Trump’s imminent return to the White House, his cabinet appointments are poised to be a defining feature of his second term. So far, the names of some of the individuals he already earmarked to assume key positions in his administration have caused many politicians, pundits, and current officials to express a variety of emotions including surprise, bewilderment, anxiety, and even amusement. The president-elect’s famous or infamous capriciousness is illustrated by his wish to appoint several controversial figures including Tulsi Gabbard as Director of National Intelligence (DNI), Kash Patel as Director of the Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI), Linda McMahon as Secretary of Education, and Lee Zeldin to lead the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA).

When it comes to the trajectory of American foreign and security policy, Trump’s declared picks clearly reflect a hard turn to the right and away from the Biden administration’s approach. So far, he named Marco Rubio to be his Secretary of State, Pete Hegseth as Secretary of Defense, and Michael Waltz as his national security advisor. He intends to appoint Elise Stefanik as US ambassador to the United Nations. As for Middle East foreign policy, it was reported that his son-in-law, Jared Kushner, who played a significant role in the signing of the Abraham Accords, will hold an informal yet influential role. More recently, Trump announced he would appoint Massad Boulos to be his senior adviser on Arab and Middle Eastern affairs. Taken together, these announcements suggests that, contrary to prior expectations or concerns by many observers, Trump is not planning to pursue an isolationist foreign policy in the Middle East during his second term.

Irrespective of the ultimate composition of the president-elect’s team, three major factors may have an overwhelming effect on his strategy for the Middle East, especially in the context of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, that may deeply disappoint Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu who has been visibly counting on Trump’s re-election. First, Trump’s indisputable dominance of the Republican Party, alongside control of both the Senate and House, means that he will have a much clearer path to advancing his agenda without the gridlock that marked his first term. He is likely to easily shape and execute foreign policy with fewer obstacles from within as well as outside his own party. Trump’s intention to eviscerate the bureaucracy, or what he calls the “Deep State”, as well as the backing he enjoys in the Supreme Court, will further endow him with unprecedented power and control. Indeed, one Republican lawmaker recently jested that “If Donald Trump says, ‘jump three feet high and scratch your head,’ we all jump three feet high and scratch our head.”

Reigning supreme, Trump will be able not only to mold his Middle East policies as he sees fit but also have his loyal appointees implement them without question. Toward that objective, his team is being carefully chosen for their unwavering loyalty and willingness to align with whatever vision he will articulate. In this tightly controlled environment, dissent will be virtually impossible, as his cabinet, key advisers, and diplomats are unlikely to challenge his directives, knowing that loyalty to the president is paramount and that disobedience could mean a swift exit from the administration. This ensures that Trump’s Middle East strategy, however controversial, will be executed with little political or bureaucratic resistance. Unsurprisingly, despite his well-documented pro-Israel and exceedingly hawkish views about US foreign policy in the Middle East, Trump’s designated ambassador to Israel, former Republican governor of Arkansas Mike Huckabee, was quoted saying “I won’t make the policy. I will carry out the policy of the president.”

Second, Trump’s widely known personality traits, particularly his impulsive decision-making, penchant for flair and spectacle, and susceptibility to flattery, will likely shape how Middle Eastern leaders interact with him. His tendency to favor bold, headline-grabbing gestures could leave him vulnerable to manipulation by regional actors who understand how to appeal to his ego and need for validation. For example, Middle Eastern leaders who are adept at adulation or crafting high-profile photo-ops may find success in securing his favor, knowing that Trump is often swayed by dramatic displays of respect or admiration rather than by argumentation. His preference for simplicity and directness could also play into the hands of those who present solutions in stark, easy-to-understand terms, avoiding the complexities that might overwhelm him or provoke disengagement.

Trump’s transactional approach to foreign policy means that, under the right circumstances, he could prioritize Arab and even Palestinian initiatives over support of Israel and just as easily throw Israel under the bus if it serves his immediate interests. While he has been a staunch ally of Israel in the past, his decisions are often driven by what he perceives as a personal or political gain, rather than ideological consistency or long-term strategic goals. If aligning with Arab nations or securing lucrative deals with oil-rich states or key players in the Gulf could provide a more tangible benefit—such as securing economic advantages, enhancing his political standing, or gaining leverage in other negotiations—Trump may not hesitate to shift his position on the future of the Palestinian Authority or the two-state solution. His history of making bold, unpredictable moves to achieve his objectives, regardless of established alliances, suggests that if Israel no longer fits into his vision of maximizing short-term gain, he could easily recalibrate U.S. policy to serve his own needs, regardless of the long-term implications for the region or the traditional U.S.-Israel relationship.

Third, Netanyahu’s sway over major parts of the U.S. Congress, including the Republican Party, might dramatically diminish under a second Trump presidency. The president-elect’s strong personality and direct engagement with his party’s lawmakers could overshadow their preexisting pro-Israel positions as well as Netanyahu’s traditional avenues of influence on Capitol Hill. Trump’s ability to galvanize his base and bend Republican lawmakers’ will coupled with his predisposition to act unilaterally when desired, might restrict Netanyahu’s capacity to meddle in American domestic politics and pit Congress against the White House as he has done multiple times in the past when facing uncooperative presidents.

Furthermore, Netanyahu cannot count on the Democratic Party where both pro-Israel moderates and progressives have been consistently critical of him. Democrats in Congress increasingly view Netanyahu with animosity, a sentiment heightened by his handling of the recent Gaza war and its devastating humanitarian consequences. Many Democrats have expressed frustration over Netanyahu’s perceived politicization of military escalation over efforts to protect civilian lives and bring the conflict to an end. His government’s aggressive rhetoric and actions in Gaza, coupled with the far-right elements in his coalition, have deepened concerns about Israel’s commitment to democratic values and international law. This overt hostility reflects a broader shift within the Democratic Party, where voices critical of Israeli policies—particularly those affecting Palestinian civilians—are growing louder, intensifying calls for a reevaluation of U.S. support unless significant policy changes are made.

In the end, Trump’s second-term Middle East policy may be shaped less by enduring principles and more by the shifting whims of a leader whose decisions are often driven by personal incentives, short-term political calculations, and a desire for dramatic outcomes. With unprecedented control over the Republican Party, the Senate, the House, the bureaucracy, and even the Supreme Court, Trump will have the institutional resources needed to push through his policies without the constraints he faced during his first term in office. While the Israeli leadership may initially feel reassured by Trump’s return, they should be prepared for a presidency that could be as unpredictable as it is transactional. Whether he continues his strong support for Israel or chooses to align with Arab leaders, Trump’s foreign policy in the Middle East will likely be marked by opportunism, shifting alliances, and an unyielding focus on his personal and political objectives. In this sense, Trump’s Middle East strategy could very well be “new wine in an old bottle”—familiar in its emphasis on deal-making, spectacle, and loyalty, but with novel, unpredictable twists that could disrupt long-standing alliances and reshape the region’s geopolitics in unforeseen ways.