China’s Ambiguity: A Way to Keep Iran as a Junior Partner?

Following the recent Israeli strike on Iranian targets that led to the death of four Iranian military personnel and the destruction of several sensitive military sites, Tehran’s rhetoric has shifted from downplaying the incident to issuing direct threats of retaliation—as the damage has become more evident. Iran’s Foreign Ministry spokesperson emphasised Iran’s right to a decisive response, while the IRGC chief warned of “bitter and unimaginable consequences” awaiting Israel. This escalation sets the stage for this analysis, anchoring it in current events as the threat of regional destabilisation looms and looking for the role played by a central actor: China.

China’s Ambiguous Stance on the Iran-Israel Conflict

China’s response to the recent escalation reveals a nuanced, middle-ground approach. In a recent press briefing, Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Lin Jian condemned infringements on sovereignty and opposed the frequent use of force, calling for de-escalation and a commitment from the international community to stabilise the Middle East. This stance closely aligns with China’s Global Security Initiative, emphasising diplomatic engagement over outright condemnation. Lin’s call reflects a well-calibrated message: while supporting Iran’s grievances, China refrains from overt criticism of Israel, thereby leaving room for its global diplomatic ambitions.

Military Dynamics: The Complicated Defense Ties Between China, Iran, and Israel

China’s purported military support for Iran adds an intricate layer to this geopolitical narrative. According to some media, China has supplied Iran with the “Silent Hunter” laser defence system, which is effective against drones and other aerial threats. This development signals Beijing’s implicit support for Iran’s defensive capabilities during heightened tensions.

It is worth noting that Israel’s Defense Ministry simultaneously announced its advancements in laser technology with the “Iron Beam” system, which is expected to become operational within a year, as TOI Mannie Fabian pointed out. It is a direct “Made in PRC” matter of confrontation. While Israel is developing this technology independently, the situation introduces a parallel between the two nations and underlines China’s selective support (against Israel). Here, we witness China’s ambiguous military positioning: advancing Iran’s defensive capacity without tipping the balance entirely, as Israel remains reliant on its indigenous technology for similar defensive needs. So, China’s lifeline is continuing to boost Iran’s strategy.

Historical Relations Between China and Israel: Economic Ties Under Strain

Historically, China and Israel share a complex relationship rooted in economic collaboration. Israel was the first Middle Eastern state to recognise the People’s Republic of China in 1950, and economic ties have blossomed since. China has invested significantly in Israel’s infrastructure, and the bilateral trade reached nearly $24.45 billion in twenty-two. China now ranks as Israel’s second-largest trading partner.

However, China’s recent approach toward the Israel-Gaza conflict has exposed fault lines within this relationship. Not only has Beijing abstained from condemning the October 7 attack on Israel, but it has also amplified pro-Hamas narratives through state-influenced media, prompting questions about the long-term viability of this economic bond. China also has an ambiguous position on UNIFIL and Hezbollah. This context lays the groundwork for China’s ambiguous stance: a balancing act where economic interests and ideological alliances coexist in tension.

China’s Subtle Shift in Tone: A Calculated Diplomatic Recalibration

A recent, discussed, well-focused Al-Monitor analysis points to a subtle shift in China’s rhetoric regarding Israel, potentially signalling a recalibration of Beijing’s stance. Before aligning more closely with Iran, in the last weeks, China has softened its stance on Israel’s actions in Gaza and Lebanon, showcasing a careful repositioning amid rising regional instability. This “shift”, however, remains conditional and calibrated, underscoring Beijing’s pragmatic approach to ensure it does not alienate Israel entirely, thereby protecting its economic and diplomatic interests in the region. 

The Strategic Calculus: Keeping Iran as a “Junior Partner”

China’s support for Iran is not without limits. More than the economic interests with Israel, and while diplomatic and military assistance to Iran is extended, China’s support seems strategically designed to prevent Tehran from emerging as an overly dominant force. China’s interest lies in maintaining Iran as a “junior partner” rather than an assertive power capable of reshaping Middle Eastern dynamics unilaterally. An unchecked Iran could disrupt regional stability, directly affecting China’s energy security and international image.

A direct military confrontation between Iran and Israel could risk oil supply routes, an unacceptable scenario for China’s energy-dependent economy. Additionally, overtly supporting Iran in an all-out war could damage China’s carefully cultivated image as a neutral arbiter and strain its relations with the Global South (with which China exploits the context to push anti-Western narratives). Hence, while sympathetic to Iran’s position, Beijing’s ambiguous rhetoric also underscores an imperative to avoid empowering Tehran to the point of uncontrollable regional escalation.

In essence, an Iran that grows too strong—even with China’s support—would strain Beijing’s relations with Gulf nations; conversely, an Iran that becomes too weak—even due to China’s actions—would be problematic, as it remains a crucial partner in the “Axis of Upheaval.”

China’s Useful Ambiguity in the Middle East

China’s diplomatic stance vis-à-vis the Iran-Israel conflict exemplifies its broader geopolitical strategy: an ambivalent approach accommodating economic pragmatism, ideological alignment, strategic narratives and geopolitical interests. By selectively supporting Iran while maintaining constructive ties with Israel, Beijing seeks to balance its role as a partner to both nations without jeopardising its interests.

The public presence of critical voices within Chinese academia, like Middle East scholar Ma Xiaolin, who criticises Iran’s confrontational stance, underscores this careful equilibrium. Party/State censorship won’t permit the publication of Ma’s position if they aren’t accepted. “As Arab countries increasingly embrace the trend of choosing peaceful coexistence with Israel, Iran clings stubbornly to outdated practices”, he said. “Amid routine vitriol against Israel, leading Middle East scholar Ma Xiaolin offers a refreshing critique of Iran’s policy toward Israel,” ACUS expert Tuvia Gering noted.

China’s ambiguous approach positions it as an egoist actor rather than an international mediator. This ambiguity is a deliberate strategy, preserving Beijing’s alignment with the Global South and allowing it to navigate an increasingly polarised international landscape without compromising its economic, diplomatic, or energy security interests. This balancing act, however, is precarious, as China’s ambitions could be challenged if the Iran-Israel conflict intensifies beyond manageable limits.