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Emanuele Rossi

How China’s Lifeline Is Boosting Iran’s Strategy

In response to Iran’s direct missile attack against Israel on October 1st, the United States imposed a fresh wave of sanctions, intensifying the pressure on Tehran. On Monday, October 14, European Union foreign ministers met in Luxembourg, adopting similar measures. These decisions are a direct consequence of Iran’s military support to Russia during the ongoing invasion of Ukraine and its broader destabilising influence across the Middle East.

As EU special envoy for the Gulf, Luigi Di Maio, highlighted in a recent interview at Italian news site Formiche.net, the European position is shaped by Iran’s unacceptable actions—both its military supply to Moscow and its ties to regional destabilisers like the Houthis, Hezbollah, Hamas, and Shia militias in Syria and Iraq. Such connections are intolerable for the EU, further motivating sanctions and diplomatic measures.

Yet despite the growing isolation from the West, Iran continues to find an essential economic lifeline in its relationship with China. While Beijing promotes itself as a stabilising power and a mediator, actively engaging with Iran’s regional rivals and advocating for peace plans like the one for Ukraine, its deepening economic ties with Tehran tell a different story. China’s strategic partnership with Iran enables Tehran to circumvent sanctions and continue its destabilising activities.

Economic cooperation between the two countries touched a new level. Non-oil trade between China and Iran reached $15.7 billion in the first half of 2024, with Iran exporting $7.2 billion worth of goods to China while importing $8.5 billion in return. High-level meetings between Iranian and Chinese officials have reaffirmed the long-term strategic partnership, which allows Iran to weather sanctions and maintain its regional ambitions.

The strategic partnership between China and Iran is set to deepen through long-term cooperation in key sectors such as transportation, infrastructure, and energy. One of the flagship projects under this partnership includes investment in the Imam Khomeini Airport City, aimed at boosting Iran’s transportation and logistics capabilities. Additionally, the two countries have collaborated in the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB), where their shared interests were discussed during recent meetings in Samarkand. Iran’s presence at the China Import Exhibition, set for November, will further enhance these ties by facilitating trade and investment opportunities between Chinese and Iranian businesses. The head of the Iran Chamber of Commerce, Industries, Mines, and Agriculture (ICCIMA) has emphasised the importance of implementing the doubter 25-year strategic agreement to fully realise the potential of economic cooperation, especially in maritime transport and commercial infrastructure. Recent agreements also highlight significant investments in sectors like petrochemicals, agriculture, and the development of the southeastern Mokran Coast, reinforcing the growing interdependence between the two countries.

This relationship gives Iran the economic stability it needs to strengthen its nuclear program and assert itself diplomatically. China’s support makes Iran a more formidable player, but Beijing’s proper leverage lies in its ability to use Iran as a tool in its broader geopolitical strategy. By maintaining ties with Tehran, China can wield its influence over Iran’s regional rivals, particularly the Gulf States. For example, China can offer Saudi Arabia deals, implying that Beijing can manage Tehran and prevent it from threatening Riyadh’s interests. This creates a subtle form of leverage, ensuring Gulf States could favour Chinese influence over U.S. alliances.

At the same time, the United States counters this dynamic by offering Gulf nations security guarantees, promising protection from Iran’s influence and ensuring regional stability—as long as these countries resist tilting too far toward China. The U.S. remains the security anchor in the region, deploying missile defence systems and maintaining its military presence as a bulwark against Iranian aggression (see the Saudi BRICS’ tightrope).

In conclusion, much like its support for Russia, China’s relationship with Iran is part of a broader strategy to erode Western influence rather than replace it. By sustaining Iran economically, China not only undirectly undermines the JCPOA’s viability, shifting the blame for what is happening onto the West, but also strengthens Tehran’s hand in regional diplomacy. This allows Beijing to present itself as a critical player in the Middle East, particularly in the balance between Gulf nations and Iran, without committing to direct military or strategic intervention. China’s influence remains opportunistic, unlikely to match the U.S.’s full-throated defence of its allies, such as the recent deployment of the THAAD system to Israel, a clear signal of American commitment to regional security. To make it clear, Beijing will not help Tehran when it suffers retaliation from Israel. Beijing is exploiting Tehran’s role as a junior partner.

About the Author
Emanuele Rossi is an international affairs analyst, specializing in the Indo-Mediterranean region. His work focuses on the global interconnections of the Enlarged Mediterranean, with a keen eye on the Indo-Pacific.
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