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Just as cassettes toppled the Shah, humiliation may topple the mullahs.

Iran today is in survival mode. The protests keep coming, and the regime is shaking more than at any point in its history. The 12-day war with Israel was not just another military confrontation—it was a humiliation that stripped away the myth of Tehran’s invincibility. By striking nuclear facilities, decapitating top generals, hitting IRGC headquarters, and even targeting the notorious Evin prison, Israel sent a clear message to the Iranian people: the Islamic Republic is nothing but a paper tiger.

The fallout has been devastating for Tehran. Its missile stockpile has been significantly downgraded, its nuclear program left in tatters after U.S. strikes, and its regional axis of resistance shattered. The fall of Assad in Syria, the assassination of Hezbollah’s Hassan Nasrallah, and the near-total obliteration of Hamas have robbed the regime of the very “wild cards” it once flaunted as proof of its strength. These achievements, once used to silence dissent, now lie in ruins.

What emboldens the free Iranian people even more is the collapse of a longtime ally: Nicolás Maduro of Venezuela. His swift downfall carries symbolic weight. It suggests that even entrenched dictators can be toppled—and raises the specter of a similar operation inside Tehran itself. The fear gripping the regime is not merely of U.S. intervention, despite President Trump’s warnings, but of Israel’s proven daring. The IDF and Mossad have shown they are capable of crossing red lines once thought untouchable. A Caracas-style operation targeting Ali Khamenei himself no longer seems unthinkable.

Israel came close to eliminating the supreme leader in the last war, only to be restrained by Washington. But with the successful mission in Venezuela, the rising influence of Secretary of State Marco Rubio—a staunch supporter of Israel—and the IDF’s new doctrine of “no more containment,” the probability of such an operation has grown. Since October 7, Israel has demonstrated a willingness to conduct astonishing, audacious missions that redefine the boundaries of modern warfare.

Trump has proven he is no isolationist. In fact, he is more interventionist than his predecessors—only on his own terms. Instead of prolonged wars, he prefers fleeting actions: precise airstrikes that accomplish the objective without entangling America in endless quagmires. Rather than twenty years of blood and treasure wasted in Iraq and Afghanistan, he charted a new episode in Venezuela—regime change achieved through a two-hour raid. It was the kind of shortcut George W. Bush could have taken with Saddam Hussein, sparing America sectarian wars and countless deaths.

Trump’s model of intervention is proving efficient. And for Israel, it may be even more convincing. Instead of facing an endless confrontation with Iran, a single operation—capturing Khamenei—could end the conflict and trigger radical change in Tehran’s behavior. The supreme leader, once the embodiment of fear, could be reduced to a symbol of collapse, stripped of his aura, wearing Nike sweatpants aboard an Israeli plane.

Echoes of Revolution

History reminds us that Iran is no stranger to revolution. In the past, the feared apparatus of the Shah—the SAVAK—terrorized the people with torture and surveillance. Yet it was not tanks or armies that brought it down, but tiny cassette tapes carrying the voices of dissent. Within months, the seemingly invincible machinery of repression collapsed under the weight of popular defiance.

The Iranian people have proven steadfast in the face of killing machines before, and they are proving it again today. If Israel pushes further, the regime’s brittle foundations could very well shatter. The clerical state, once cloaked in the illusion of strength, now stands exposed as fragile and vulnerable.

The lesson is clear: dictatorships fall not only when their armies are defeated, but when their myths are broken. For Iran, that moment may be closer than ever—and Israel could trigger the deluge.