Decoding Middle East Scenario Through a Realist Perspective

Security and conflict have remained the intricate area of discussion in the realm of international relations. In the wake of threats and uncertainties on the global front countries emphasize their national interest and Middle Eastern countries are no different. The Middle East has been a centrifugal aspect in many international platforms. This region has a complex past and an enduring strategic future. For many reasons, there is no unanimity among the countries which makes it a conflict zone. The regional conflict between Israel and Iran along with its proxies creates a disruption in regional stability and terrorism has weakened the states like Lebanon, Syria and Yemen. Therefore, these could be considered the major reasons for instability among many other issues such as water sharing conflicts, refugee crisis and so on.

Apart from these tensions, the region holds strategic importance due to natural resources, oil and geographic location connecting regions which droves global attention. One of the major crises the region faces is terrorism. Terrorism is also a current concern which has doubled the existing fragility and promoted human rights crisis in the region. Nevertheless, it would not be inappropriate to imply that Iran and its proxies have conflagrated the region. The paper highlights the ongoing situations from a realist perspective in the region. The main reason for studying it from a realist angle is due to the security aspect. The article would provide insights into thinking from different dimensions that could be used for further research on the theory.

The regional conflicts are not a new trend to the countries in the Middle East. It has a long history of civil conflicts, displacements, exiles, invasions and countless numbers of wars. The recent spark in the pandora’s box sprouted on 7th October 2023 which had a devastating effect on Israel. Events which followed were nightmares not only for the country but created awe in the international community. It marked one of the worst havoc in the region as violent non-state actors took Israeli citizens as hostages. Amidst the ongoing contentions, it is challenging for countries in the region especially for Israel due to numerous rockets, missile and drone attacks, terrorist intrusions and hostage crises. One of the major conundrums which countries across the world have faced during these months is choosing which side of history to lean on. However, there are multiple arguments emphasizing the ‘right’ and ‘wrongs’ in the execution of actions.

Many countries expressed their condemnation of terrorism by Hamas while regional countries like Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Syria and Iraq blamed Israel for attacks. However, some expressed their displeasure and involved in mediation while the majority remained silent. This approach from countries could be interpreted from Hobbes’s view of calling ‘human beings as selfish’; in this case, those countries which were not affected showed minimal efforts for intervention keeping their interest pivotal. Nonetheless, something which seems to be disturbing in this situation is that countries do condemn terror acts but seldom stand together to counter it. On an interesting note, countries have started to fear that conflict in the region would have a detrimental effect not only in the Middle East but globally given the stocks of arsenals, technologies and the strategic location. In this context, it is important to reflect on one of the main aspects, ‘what drives states to be active or remain passive in a conflict environment’. This attitude by states is generally based on self-interest and security matters.

The past dynamics in the region have always been the core of international relations and security studies due to its strategic importance, infamous history, conflicts, territorial disputes, civil unrest and so on. However, these problems do not justify the sufferings of the civilian population. It has also been observed that most of the time atrocity against Israel has never been addressed and retaliation strikes are often condemned by countries and global institutions. This brings another dimension to the perspective that countries cherish their interest and agenda foremost which they want to pursue more than choosing justice. Hence, it indicates that ethics or morality is adjusted according to convenience. For instance, during the 2014 military escalations, there was unanimity among the Arab country’s responses where the Arab League condemned Israel for the conflict whereas the situation was different in 2023 as some Arab countries like UAE, and Bahrain updated their initial statements and condemned the attacks by Hamas. Moreover, it could be implied that countless acts of neglecting terror in Israel have helped terrorism to grow like creeper plants.

One of the most debated issues in the region concerning the Israel and Palestine conflict is the statehood of Palestinians. Many regional conflicts between Arab countries and Israel in the past have been credited to this cause but for some Arab countries, it has changed since the Arab Spring in 2011 due to domestic and economic unease among many other security concerns. However, the main question is, were these conflicts for the Palestinian cause or other vested interests. Into this imbalance, terrorism started to grow and has now disrupted the whole region. The realist theory emphasizes the ‘power’ as an important player in the anarchic international order. In the past, this theory has been used by researchers to study various regions and problems. In the existing geopolitical scenario, this power is attributed to advancements in technology. Therefore, it is evident from the region’s current and past scenarios that this power could not only be used by countries against each other but also by violent non-state actors when not monitored. It will not be inappropriate to say that, if the threat from these actors is not addressed unanimously by the regional countries, then the situation would deteriorate. The current situation might suggest these heinous acts to be detrimental for one country but terrorism transcends territories which would expand if not countered with measures. Moreover, these violent groups could be a threat to humanity.

In the recent yesteryears, there were peace agreements in the region which opened talks between countries to cooperate on different aspects and strengthening diplomacy. As part of this, there were other additions such as Negev Forum and I2U2. Economic partnerships have also been boosted as part of their cooperation. It would not be inaccurate to admit that economic cooperation could bring new developments towards growth in the region. Moreover, this could act as a modest step towards solving the conflicts as economic progress is a necessity for all countries. It is sometimes observed that poverty is a crucial driving aspect in conflicts, which is supposedly true in the case of Palestine given the recent reports from the UN. Therefore, one of the key solutions to this issue could be through investments towards socio-economic progress which perhaps will not be possible amidst a lack of trust between the parties. Both countries and others in the region need to adopt trust-building measures before setting up development goals.

One of the concepts which could be associated with such development cooperation is a ‘knowledge-based economy’ that primarily focuses on the intellect for economic growth. This concept is far more advanced than an economy derived from resources as it will facilitate social transformation through interactions with the global audience and cultures rather than focusing on building infrastructures. However, it seems difficult for countries to switch to a knowledge economy due to authoritarian regimes in some Middle East countries whereas some countries such as the United Arab Emirates are moving forward with the thought.

The region needs a sophisticated approach in terms of handling sensitive situations which is through investments and developments to enhance the economy and living standards of its citizens. One of the distinguished and emerging trends in the region is the exploration of energy resources in the Levant Basin and the adjacent areas in the Eastern Mediterranean region. This region is gaining relevance and the regional countries need to take this as an aspect of building collective trust for working towards progress. However, this situation is heating up due to disputes between some states.

Realism in the Middle East scenario could have various other perspectives but the state-centric viewpoint that focuses on self-interest will remain constant. Due to the ongoing conflict between the parties and mainly the involvement of terrorism in the region, it needs to be addressed through group mediation of proactive countries from various regions globally. In discussions concerning problems in international relations and security, it is vital to have a platform consisting of representation from different regions such as India (South Asia) and other countries. Such an outlook in solving problems will have a positive impact as there will be a diverse opinion for resolution and future prospects.