Why can’t the Democrats get the election right?

Democrats keep making the same mistakes. They consistently fail in political communication and messaging. Republicans consistently outmaneuver them. 

In 1988, Democrats ran Mike Dukakis, who squandered a 15-point lead because (a) he looked stupid in a tank and (b) he took the high road, focused on positive messaging, and refused not only to criticize his opponent but also to respond to any criticism lobbed at him. He refused to get into the political mud – and he later said that was the biggest mistake of his life.

The 2000 election is a bit more complicated. On some level, Gore should have won because Clinton was immensely popular and had presided over the most prosperous, peaceful decade in American history. (Trump claims he generated the greatest economy in history; that’s a lie. That accolade goes to Clinton – it’s not even close). Nevertheless, the election was essentially a tie in Florida, and arguably Bush stole the election. 537 votes whisper through the ages.

I bumped into Al Gore a few years ago in New York and had the chance to tell him we’d be better off had he won.

In 2004, John Kerry made blunders that mirrored the Dukakis campaign. He put forward a positive message instead of attacking George W. Bush. And somehow, Republicans were able to demonize Kerry as some sort of a traitor and deserter, when in fact, Kerry was the war veteran and Bush was the silver-spooned draft dodger. This was also a time of such immense stupidity and anti-intellectual fervor in America that John Kerry was criticized for his fluency in French. Some referred to French Fries as “Freedom Fries.”

Hillary Clinton, too, ran a poor campaign in 2016. It’s well documented that she never campaigned in Wisconsin. She took for granted the Midwestern states that she needed to win. And she lacked the charisma and innate communicative genius that her husband Bill was so famous for. Bill understood and appealed to the white working-class voter that would later become Trump’s base.

Hillary was indicative of another problem. She was the safe, establishment candidate. “It was her turn.” That rarely works for Democrats – or Republicans, really. Ask Bob Dole. Democrats typically do best when a young, bold, dynamic candidate takes the reins – like JFK in 1960, Clinton in 1992, Obama in 2008. 

Biden was the safe choice in 2020 and he won, but this may be an anomaly. Trump had presided over and stoked such chaos during the pandemic, and he was so divisive during the racial tensions in 2020 following the murder of George Floyd, that he made himself quite vulnerable. But for the pandemic, it’s likely Trump would have won a second term.

The most successful Democratic candidates are centrists. George McGovern won one state in 1972. My truly best guess is that Bernie Sanders would have lost in 2016 and 2020 had he won the primaries. In America, the sociopath beats the socialist every day and twice on Sunday. The left-wing flank of the Democratic Party – “the Squad” – is undoubtedly a negative for Democratic electoral prospects.

1972 Electoral Map

Indeed, Bill Clinton personifies the formula that works for Democrats: he was young, charismatic, and centrist. He defeated an incumbent World War II veteran in 1992 and wiped the floor with Bob Dole in 1996. He would do the same with Trump.

If most Americans were to read the party platforms without knowing which was which – to the extent that there is a Republican platform under Trump – the majority would agree with the policies of the Democratic Party. At least, for the most part. But that’s not what elections are about. Most voters make political decisions based on social identities, partisan loyalties, individual personalities, and emotions – and not on earnest examinations of reality.

Polling consistently shows that Republicans hold negative views of Obamacare, but much more positive opinions of the Affordable Care Act.

Biden doesn’t get credit for much of what he’s done. Trump talked about an infrastructure bill; Biden actually did it. And it’s much-needed. If you have flown into Dulles Airport outside of Washington DC, you might think you’ve landed in a third-world country.

Biden lowered the cost of prescription drugs under Medicare, but no one knows about it; he can’t sell his accomplishments and gets credit for none of them. If Trump had lowered the cost of ten prescription drugs, the entire country would have memorized them in list format. Trump would be shouting them out at every single event. 

Biden supported Ukraine and maintained American leadership on the global stage. Trump promises to betray Ukraine and align the United States with Vladimir Putin, if not subordinate the US to him.

If you’re using Trump’s favorite metric, the Dow Jones Industrial Average, Biden is the greatest president in history.

It was a mistake for the DNC to clear the field for Biden in 2024. The moment demanded someone new, exciting, young, along the lines of JFK, Clinton, or Obama – but the DNC went the route of perceived safety, the logical order of things. And that doesn’t work in federal politics.

Trump caused immense carnage – American carnage – and solved very little during his embattled four years in the White House. But he’s an entertaining SOB, a natural salesman, cunning and charismatic like Huey Long, with a larger-than-life, this-is-how-we-talk-in-New-York personality.

It’s all performance. It’s all entertainment. It’s all reality TV.

But what makes you feel good doesn’t always heal you.

He will win, and shortly thereafter, Americans will have a cold case of buyer’s remorse. But at what cost? And will it be too late?

This is hardly the end of days, but the mood is grim.