Egyptian military escalation: A wake-up call

I have had trouble sleeping following the surprise announcement by President Donald Trump, which has kept me from joining in the celebrations among the lovers of the Land of Israel. The proposal to facilitate large-scale emigration from Gaza (voluntary? incentivized?) and to place Gaza under international administration with American backing appears to me less like a concrete plan and more like a behind-the-scenes power struggle with Egypt.

I suspect that intense exchanges have taken place between President Trump and Egyptian President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi, whether directly or through intermediaries:

Trump to Sisi: If you refuse to absorb evacuees from Gaza or at least allow them safe passage through Egypt, we will facilitate their emigration directly from Gaza. Saudi Arabia will take the lead in Gaza’s reconstruction under our supervision.

Sisi to Trump: Egypt will not cooperate with any Israeli-American effort to undermine the “just demand” of the “Palestinian people” for a fully sovereign state in Gaza and the “West Bank,” along the 1967 borders, in accordance with international resolutions.

Trump to Sisi: You are risking American aid to Egypt — aid that has significantly increased due to the Houthi threat to the Suez Canal.

Sisi to Trump: If you cut off aid to Egypt, we may reconsider (or even cancel) our peace treaty with Israel. The same could happen if you dare to recognize Israeli sovereignty over the “West Bank.”

Trump to Sisi: If you agree to take in Gazans who wish to emigrate, you will receive increased aid. But if you jeopardize the peace treaty with Israel, you will find yourself in direct confrontation with the United States.

Rather than responding with words, Egypt has already taken action — deploying large military forces into Sinai in blatant violation of the peace agreement with Israel, which was predicated on Sinai’s demilitarization.

This is my educated guess.

What do we know for certain?

• Egypt has officially and categorically refused to accept evacuees from Gaza throughout the war (though some Gazans may have managed to infiltrate Egypt, particularly in the early stages of the conflict).
• Anti-Israel sentiment in Egypt is at a boiling point. Several attacks on the Israeli embassy have already led to a hasty and traumatic evacuation of diplomatic staff and their families.
• Egypt, along with Qatar, is engaged in negotiations over Israeli hostages — but while it applies pressure on Israel, it exerts none on Hamas.
• Egypt is adamantly opposed to any measure that would diminish the chances of establishing a “Palestinian state” along the 1967 borders.
• Egypt has already deployed substantial military forces into Sinai in violation of the peace treaty with Israel.

We must wake up before we are caught off guard once again — just as we were before the Six Day War and the Yom Kippur War. Before we face another surprise attack from Hamas, we are staring down the even graver threat of an Egyptian military escalation.

We cannot afford to “tolerate” Egypt’s dangerous violations of the peace treaty. Instead of mass emigration from Gaza, we may soon find ourselves confronting an existential threat — another war with Egypt, compounding the threats from Iran and its proxies.

This is a wake-up call!