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Giovanni Giacalone
Eyes everywhere

Either Turkey gets rid of Erdogan, or NATO of Turkey. No other options

Erdogan with Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh. Photo of public domain. Used in accordance with Clause 27a of the Copyright Law.

On Saturday evening, July 27th, the Iranian terrorist proxy Hezbollah slaughtered 12 kids from the Druze community who were playing soccer and injured dozens more.

Earlier on Saturday, rockets were indiscriminately fired toward various parts of northern Israel; the IDF Aerial Defense Array intercepted numerous projectiles, and the rest fell in open areas, but it was predictable that at some point, one of these rockets would land in a built-up area and kill.

As reported by the IDF, the attack was directed by Ali Muhammad Yahya, who is the Hezbollah commander of a rocket launching site in the Chebaa area in southern Lebanon. The rocket used for the massacre is an Iranian-made Falaq 1, with a warhead of 53 kg, a diameter of 240 mm, and a range of 10 km.  As reported by the “Longwar Journal” last February, Hezbollah used them for the first time in strikes against Israel beginning on January 26, 2024.

Not only did Hezbollah commit the massacre, but it even tried to deny responsibility. However, the evidence presented by the IDF is unequivocal.

Predictable as always, what did Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan do? Did he condemn the death of Druze civilians? No. He warned that Turkey would invade Israel, just as it did in Armenia and Libya. These are the words that Erdogan told at a meeting of his ruling AK Party in his hometown of Rize, in a probable attempt to impress the audience:

We must be very strong so that Israel can’t do these ridiculous things to Palestine. Just like we entered Karabakh, just like we entered Libya, we might do similar to them”.

Palestine? Didn’t he realize that the case involved Shia terrorists from Lebanon bombarding Arab Druze on Israeli soil?

As always, Erdogan’s words cause more damage than positive outcomes to himself, Turkey, and his own political party, already in trouble after a major defeat in the 2024 local elections and after losing its absolute majority in the Grand National Assembly of Turkey in 2023, forcing the AKP to rely on its coalition partner, the Nationalist Movement Party (MHP) of Devlet Bahceli.

When did Turkey invade Libya and Nogorno-Karabakh? Ankara has always denied any active role in Azerbaijan’s military operations in Nagorno-Karabakh, even though in 2023 Turkey did state that it was providing military training to their Azeri allies. Is there something we should know?

As to Libya, in 2020 Turkey sent military personnel in support of the Islamist Government of National Accord in Tripoli, led at the time by al-Serraj. Erdogan must have referred to the thousands of Jihadists transferred from Syria to Libya back in 2020, therefore confirming a report published by the Pentagon in July of that year exposed that Turkey sent between 3,500 and 3,800 Syrian mercenaries to back the Libyan Government of National Accord (GNA) over the first three months of the year.

The report explained that Ankara paid and offered citizenship to thousands of jihadists fighting alongside militias aligned with the GNA, against troops of the Libyan National Army (LNA) led by Field Marshal Khalifa Haftar.

In May of 2020, the Director of the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights (SOHR), Rami Abdel-Rahman, confirmed that Turkey has been transferring thousands of IS, and Al-Qaeda militants to Libya, to fight alongside the Government of National Accord (GNA).

Erdogan’s latest statement is interesting, considering that Turkey has always denied this. He must have finally decided to admit that Turkey “invaded” Libya using jihadists from various factions, including ISIS and al-Qaeda.

Indeed, this is no surprise and in March of 2024 we already exposed on this blog how Erdogan turned Turkey into a terror-supporting State. It is also important to mention that in 2015, Cumhuriyet Editor-in-Chief Dundar and Ankara Bureau chief Gül were arrested on “terrorism charges”, over a story on trucks owned by the National Intelligence Agency (MIT), Turkey’s state intelligence agency, which were stopped and searched in southern Turkey in early 2014 while allegedly carrying weapons to jihadists in Syria.

After all, Erdogan and his Islamist creek share the same ideology as Hamas, and they are both Muslim Brotherhood offshoots, going side to side with their Khomeinist partners in Iran.

As already stated back in March, Erdogan’s Turkey is quite similar to the Iranian regime, with one difference, being that Turkey is also a NATO member and this is becoming a very consistent problem. Therefore, the options are two, either Turkey gets rid of Erdogan and the Islamists, or NATO gets rid of Turkey. Plain and simple.

About the Author
Giovanni Giacalone is a senior analyst in Islamist extremism and terrorism at the Italian Team for Security, Terroristic Issues and Managing Emergencies-Catholic University of Milan, at the Europe desk for the UK-based think tank Islamic Theology of Counter-Terrorism, and a researcher for Centro Studi Machiavelli. Since 2021 he is the coordinator for the "Latin America group" at the International Institute for the Study of Security-ITSS. In 2023 Giacalone published the book “The Tablighi Jamaat in Europe”.
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