Eyes on Gaza City. At What Cost?

I have been bracing myself for the inevitable barrage of “it has been approved to make public” in anticipation of the decision to go forward with the total conquest of Gaza, but Saturday night’s announcement of the death of Ariel Lubliner, z”l took me by surprise. Perhaps because it was a result of “friendly fire,” I don’t know. What I do know, is that urban warfare is a death trap for soldiers, whether it is from friendly fire, or not.

According to the recorded Complier Average Causal Effect, the civilian casualty ratio in urban warfare is 49.5%. In other words, one in every two people killed is a civilian. Forget about the excuse of Hamas using human shields which we always trot out in an attempt to salve our consciences; even if they didn’t use civilians as human shields, the ratio of civilian deaths is one in two. There are about 500,000 people living in Gaza City. Consider the anticipated death toll, and then ask yourselves if the government’s decision to conquer Gaza City is worth the cost? Is the operation absolutely necessary for the success of the war? Not only in terms of the casualties we will inevitably incur, but in terms of the deaths of civilians which will be on our conscience as a consequence.

But this coven of cabinet ministers has demonstrated that it cares nothing about human life – ours, or theirs. If they did, they would take into account the almost certainty that such an operation will sign the death warrant for the twenty hostages clinging to life in the desperate hope that we will bring them back. For two weeks since Hamas agreed to the terms of the hostage deal – which Israel pushed for and endorsed almost one month ago – the cabinet has not even been convened to discuss it. They are hell-bent on taking Gaza City – as if doing so, it will deliver them their political salvation on “total victory”, and they can say “look, we made it right”. But at what cost?

Two days ago, on the approval of the imposter, who thinks that talking tough is the only qualification needed to be Defense Minister, the IDF assassinated Abu Ubeida, Hamas’s chief spokesman. Not a regional commander; not section leader; not even a Hamas fighter. A spokesman. Now, I have no sympathy for him or his death. But, 11 civilians were killed along with him, among them children. To take out a spokesman. And, in callous disregard for Palestinian civilians’ lives, in last night’s cabinet meeting, Netanyahu quipped that we don’t yet have confirmation that the assassination was a success, because there is no spokesman left standing to confirm it. (If anything proves that what Yair Golan said was right, about killing children for fun, this quip, and joking about it, does). I will leave it to you to decide if it is justified to kill 11 innocent people to kill a spokesman.

So, why should we even think that they considered the expected civilian casualty count, when they became fixated with taking Gaza City? As if, by taking Gaza City, Hamas would collapse? They said the same thing about the Philadelphi Corridor, and Rafah.

Remember when Netanyahu announced that we were just one step away from victory? That was 16 months ago. And one year ago, we saw the result of that one step away from victory. Hersh Goldberg-Polin, Carmel Gat, Eden Yerushalmi, Ori Danino, Almog Sarusi and Alexander Lubanov didn’t get to see it. Is this the fate we can expect for the twenty surviving hostages?

In a functioning democracy, the military is subordinate to the Executive Branch. The government determines policy and the military is duty bound to carry it out. In almost all the cases on record – not only in Israel – traditionally, the military takes a hawkish stance, and the government restrains it. For the first time in Israel’s history, in an unprecedented exercise of his authority, Netanyahu browbeat the Chief of Staff army to put together a battle plan against his better judgment – an opinion held by almost all the highest ranking generals and security personal, past and present. It is indicative of the arrogant irreverence and disrespect this government displays towards all experts and all professional opinions – on all subjects – which do not dovetail with their own, or their agenda. So, now we have a motley bunch of draft evaders, jobniks and those who never even served in the army (and none of whose sons have fought in Gaza), led by one retired officer from 50 years ago, who held the rank of captain, dictating – not policy, but military strategy – to generals with the combined military experience of over 600 years (25 members of the General Staff, each with a minimum of 20 years’ experience) – and accusing them of being weak-hearted and cowards!

To cloak the real reasons for their obstinate obsession with continuing the war, none swerving from the dictated mantra verbatim, this coven of self-interested hacks, who ignore the will of 70% of the people they claim to represent, presumes to lecture us that they know better; that their motivation is out of concern for Israel’s future – as if they are acting responsibly “for our own good” and we, who call to save the hostages even if it means ending the war, are the irresponsible ones. This is the same government which is responsible for 7/10 happening in the first place, which failed to protect us, and which ignored all the warnings – making it the humiliating disaster that it was! But now we are supposed to trust them to make the correct decisions that will lead to us having better security? Even while they continue to place their ideological and political agenda above the need for national unity and solidarity, and cynically use the war as a foil to advance the judicial coup and to push for the resettlement of Gaza? They present a false axiom, that if we choose to end the war now without forcing Hamas to disarm, October 7 will be repeated. So, they have faith in the ability of the IDF to force Hamas to surrender and to conquer all of Gaza, but the same IDF is not able to defend us and our borders from Hamas attacks? That if we don’t destroy Hamas, we will be sitting ducks and future 7/10’s will be inevitable? I must admit that I struggle to understand this tortuous logic.

The war must end. Every day this war continues, we play Russian roulette with the lives of the hostages. In the current situation, although not desirable, a partial hostage deal is better than none. Netanyahu’s policy regarding hostage release flips according to his political expediency more often than a steak on a grill. When Hamas offered an all-inclusive deal for the release of all the hostages in exchange for an end to the war, Netanyahu adamantly agreed only to a partial deal – which he broke. When Hamas offered and agreed to a partial deal – the same deal Netanyahu endorsed only one month ago – now Netanyahu demands a deal for the release of all the hostages. Nothing less. What explanation will Netanyahu give, if any of the hostages who we saw clinging to life just last month, dies in captivity, while he sticks to his newly adopted iron principle that he will only accept a deal for all the hostages?

Every day this war drags on, with no momentum and no strategic end-goal besides avenging our lost dignity; every additional screw-up when we strike a hospital or refugee shelter by mistake; and every targeted assassination of yet another conjured up high value target which also kills ten or more innocent civilians, our international vilification deepens, and the self-righteous knee-jerk dismissal of such criticism as “antisemitism” and “rewarding Hamas and terrorism”, sounds more and more tedious and monotonous. The question is no longer what our lives will be like if Hamas is left standing, but what our lives will be like, isolated and rejected by almost every country, lepers of the world, reviled and repudiated everywhere we go, if we eventually do manage to destroy Hamas. Because, despite Bibi’s defiant bravado, in reality, we cannot survive alone.