For Israeli liberals, Trump’s a double-edged sword
The tweet by Vice President J. D. Vance was startling.
Vance is a lawyer. He must know that this is not a serious argument. The judiciary is a co-equal branch of government and is literally mandated to act as a check on the power of the executive in the American system. But Vance also knows that Trump did not win the 2020 election; that his efforts to “prove” otherwise were spurious; and his attempts to overturn the result – culminating in the horror of January 6 – were outrageous. He will not publicly say any of these things, any more than he’ll speak out against his boss’s extraordinary disdain for the United States Constitution.
There’s a broader issue here for Israelis – certainly for those (the majority according to every poll) who oppose our government’s plans for judicial “reform”. Let’s make no bones about it: Trump made this hostage deal happen. Without his election win in November it’s highly likely we would still be stuck in the same impasse in Gaza. Both Hamas and Netanyahu were motivated to go for a deal by Trump’s victory. Biden (and then Harris) would be pushing Bibi, and he would be pushing back. Bibi will not push back against Trump. We saw that in Trump’s first term, when the prime minister was forced to renege on the promise he made to the settler leadership about annexation after Trump said no; and we’ve seen it again here.
About Trump’s Gaza plan plenty has been written. Suffice to say one doesn’t have to sign up to the abhorrent idea of forcibly expelling 2 million people to see value in highlighting the hypocrisy of world leaders. Those who will slam Israel for causing suffering to the Palestinians, but who have no intention of offering them any way out of Gaza. Likewise Trump’s willingness to throw the old models in the trash and push for something different has been welcomed by most Israelis, jaded by the “peace processing” of too many politicians and diplomats who have only incentivized Palestinian obduracy by insisting that each Palestinian rejection of peace be met with greater Israeli concessions. As Yardena Schwartz wrote in a great piece for The Forward:
Trump’s idea, described by Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu as ‘outside the box,’ is so far outside the box that it does not seem designed to be implemented, but rather to illuminate how broken the box is.
And yet, for all Trump’s demonstrable value as an ally, as a model of governance he would be a disaster for an Israel that already has a right-wing government captured by its most authoritarian-minded faction.
Trump has unleashed a blizzard of executive orders – many (most?) unconstitutional – designed to weaken the institutions and individuals that limit his power. In so many respects, especially his decimation of the FBI, with agents being fired for investigating the January 6 rioters, Trump is providing an example for Netanyahu’s own designs on Israel’s state institutions. Like Trump, Netanyahu values personal loyalty – and a willingness to excuse or explain any action made by the Great Leader – above all. As we know from the likes of Viktor Orban, illiberal leaders seeking to clamp down on checks and balances to their power take great encouragement and inspiration from the ostensible ‘Leader of the Free World’ showing such disregard for liberal democracy and the rule of law.
President Biden’s very public criticism of the assault on Israeli democracy by this government – to the point where he refused to meet with Netanyahu – was a powerful message, and gave legitimacy to the patriotic protest movement which did such a magnificent job at stalling the “reforms”. Israel’s democracy activists should expect no such support from President Trump.
The harm that Trump can do to American democracy will be mitigated by the system created by America’s founders specifically to block a President who saw himself as a King with absolute power. Israel lacks this kind of robust constitutional framework. By acting as an inspiration and enabler for Netanyahu and Yariv Levin, Trump could end up being as harmful to Israeli democracy, as he has been helpful to Israel’s hostages.
