France’s Latest Geopolitical Blunder

It is too early to claim victory for Israel over the Mullahs of Iran, but the first week of the war has gone better than most observers believed it could. Israeli weapons proved remarkably effective while Tehran’s weapons and military infrastructure crumbled.

Leave it to the French, however, to ensure that their nation is a geopolitical loser.  France’s latest “own goal” came during the Paris Air Show, when the French organizers hid the exhibit from Israeli companies behind a black barricade. The Israelis responded by stating that they had moved their exhibit to Tehran. Air Show participants can view their effectiveness there.

At some point – hopefully in the very near future, the guns will fall silent in the Middle East. As a byproduct of the last two years, Israel has the best, most experienced and most sophisticated military in the region, and one of the best in the world. Israel now has experience in all kinds of fighting, from psyops to close quarter urban fighting to fighting in the hills of Lebanon. Even now, before the Iran and Hamas wars end, Morocco is partnering with the Israeli military on “African Lion” war games. The world does not need a Paris Air Show exhibit to see clearly how effective Israeli military technology is. Expect the world then, to make a beehive to Jerusalem to ask for Israeli military training and assistance and to seek Israeli military technology to purchase.

This is bad news for France. French actions at the Paris Air Show will not hurt the Israeli companies one bit. Quite the opposite. France’s sophomoric stunt only brought more publicity and credibility to Israeli weaponry (not that it needed it) and to the Israelis startling achievements in Lebanon and Iran. All the Air Show action did was give Israel another reason to be suspicious of France. In that regard France now joins its European neighbor Great Britain, which announced that it would not defend Israel against Iran and has stated that it would arrest Prime Minister Netanyahu should be enter the country. Israel responded by freezing Great Britain out of operational intelligence, leaving the British flatfooted and embarrassed when Israel attacked Iran yet London knew nothing of it.

To make matters worse for Prime Minister Keir Starmer, internally he was forced to demand a national inquiry into the “Grooming Gang” scandal after denying for months that such a national inquiry was needed. This issue involved gangs of mostly Pakistani Muslims who “groomed” and raped young white girls. Now, isolated and humiliated internally and frozen out internationally, Starmer needs to find his way back.

Another country that looks to be in a hole is China. For years China has stayed above the fray, letting other countries get involved in foreign wars and making sure it stayed on the winning side. Now things look different. China’s economy is slowing, its demographic time bomb is ticking and a military operation to conquer Taiwan is imposing. For years China has relied on Iran for low cost fuel. Last week there were unconfirmed reports that Chinese planes attempted to resupply the Iranians. In the United Nations China has expressed complete support for Iran, making clear where they stand.

Should Iran fall, China not only will lose its key energy supply but likely will end up with a true enemy not far from its western border. In addition, China will have earned the enmity of Israel, which looks ascendant in the region. As China tries to exert hegemony to its east in the South China Sea and regarding Taiwan, its west is now more hostile than before, and intensely so.

The Paris Air Show stunt, and much of international relations since October 7 regarding Israel seem to have been driven more by emotion than reason. After over 18 months of trauma, Israel now can see the possibility of exiting this stronger than ever. As with France, other countries which have taken actions against Israel wholly out of proportion with those involving other countries, will exit this period far weaker than before. Piecing international relations back together will be a job for diplomats and statements that will be remembered long after its individual actors leave the scene.