Gaza: The End Game – 2025
Right now the government of Israel faces a serious choice: either to seek an end to the ongoing war in Gaza at this time or to continue as before. The latter means drawn out hostage negotiations whereby both sides are currently locked in a position which in fact does not allow for an end to the conflict – thus more war, more destruction, more losses and no vision of resolution. The implications of the latter are not rocket science. Our modern history here in Israel provides a clear insight to the calculus as to where this leads – a drawn out conflict, accumulating losses and lack of both short and long term vision. Likewise, Hamas faces similar dilemmas: either to continue the conflict by means of urban guerrilla warfare, with a starving public, zero quality of life and daily death.
As the most powerful player both in this conflict and indeed in the Middle East, it is upon Israel and its government to seek wise options and alternatives to the current reality while taking into account that time is not to the benefit of the people of Israel.
Sadly, it is to the benefit of the coalition government of Israel that wishes to stay in power interminably. It is quite clear now that a complete and definite win, WW2 style, is simply not realistic. However, it is my belief that this is precisely what Netanyahu and his government had in mind when conducting a full scale invasion of Gaza following the horrors of the 7th of October. So great was this onslaught of evil, destruction, abuse and terror by Hamas, that clearly a reaction of proportions way beyond a regular series of strikes and troop invasions, was needed both by the government and by the shocked and traumatized people of Israel. The wise way out of this may have been simply to acknowledge that leadership and the military failed dismally, engage in a full prisoner versus hostages swap, seek a ceasefire and a ten year end to all hostilities and search for some kind of diplomatic political resolution towards an end to the conflict. Sadly such is not the way of the world. I doubt any country could or would have taken that route.
However the route that was taken, is by no means much better. We now have scores of injuries and deaths of Israelis who served in Gaza, hostages who are held there in shocking conditions, no path to full victory and an urban conflict that bangs into the hearts and homes of Israelis daily. We witness a wave of anti-Israel outrage worldwide and blatant antisemitism around the globe including the enlightened countries such as Australia, the UK and beyond. The failure of defense by the Israeli army together with the failure of diplomatic vision by Netanyahu and his government are all part of the problem – definitely not part of the solution.
As a South African who is and has been an Israeli citizen for decades, I can draw on some of the wisdom that brought about peace in South Africa. Former Director General of the Foreign Affairs office in Israel, Dr. Alon Liel served as an Israeli ambassador to South Africa during the time that South Africa transformed from apartheid to full democracy. And while there is really no comparison to Israel – as there has never been institutional discrimination here, there are some lessons we can learn from his time there, and later from his studies of conflicts in Ireland and Cyprus where sworn enemies found a way to live and work together.
The first thing that is needed is dialogue. And by that I don’t mean brief texts. It means going further out of the comfort zone. In the case of South Africa, the all-powerful National Party headed by de Klerk reached out to Nelson Mandela who was the recognized head of the black struggle for equal rights, then incarcerated for life on a prison-island. That dialogue set in motion a process – a long drawn out process, but one that led to peace and justice. South Africa is a troubled country, but the discrimination and conflict is over. Likewise has been recorded in Britain and Ireland, and between Greek Christian and Turkish Muslim Cypriots. Ah, but here it is different you may say. No – the geography is different, the religions are different but the conflict is not different. The only difference is that the willingness of leadership and the conflicts within leadership here between Israel and its sworn enemies, are in fact different.
The solution of course is staring us in the face: we need a two state solution (or variants thereof such as confederation, federation, or similar alternatives) whereby each entity governs itself within a broader framework, that clearly will be secured by an agreed military cooperation mechanism. The moment that is agreed, maintained and secured, the payoffs are huge: firstly the Palestinian people finally have some – not complete, but some closure. Labor issues which are critical for both entities become seamless. And I personally believe that the powerful high tech economy in Israel will blossom and grow, this time including Palestinians, thus making this small dot on the world map and even greater platform of high tech and ingenuity.
To get back to our very sombre reality – the war has to end. A total win WW2 style is clearly not on the table. It was believed to be such…but we know now, the urban warfare toll in Gaza is not sustainable. This means that now we need some real hardcore diplomacy and political acrobatics. Netanyahu and his government, his generals and his advisors need to depart the stage. They got us into this mess. They need to be voted out. A full judicial commission of enquiry needs to begin: the shamed and the guilty may have their time in court but they need to accept responsibility. The wounded, abused and abandoned in tunnels need relief and compensation. The enemy – Hamas, must be subdued by the Palestinian people at large. We can defeat them in battle. We cannot defeat them ideologically. This is a Palestinian struggle. Can the Palestinian “Mandela” a.k.a Bhargouti bring leadership to Palestinians? At least it needs to be looked at in the same way that de Klerk, in small baby steps, began a dialogue with Mandela.
