Hamas’s Own Estimate Shifts Casualty Narrative

Yesterday, while watching Channel 12 Israel News – the country’s largest news network – during a special program marking one year since the October 7 massacre and the start of the war, something stood out.

In what almost felt like a passing remark, Ohad Hemo, a leading expert on Palestinian and Arab affairs, mentioned an estimate from Hamas: around 80% of those killed in Gaza are members of the organization and their families.”

“Curious about this, I reached out to Ohad, and he confirmed that his sources inside Hamas’s political bureau in Qatar and Turkey had provided this figure. According to him, these numbers came directly from Hamas’s own internal estimates.”

“In an N12 article that came out this morning, Hemo also pointed out that since the elimination of key leader Ismail Haniyeh, Hamas’s top echelon has gone underground and fled Iran and Lebanon, with some relocating to  Turkey and Qatar – with the hope that Israel will not strike them there

While the seniors survived: a vacuum was created in the Gaza Strip – and anarchy in the streets.”

This revelation comes exactly one year after the war began, with casualty figures playing a central role in the debates around Israel’s military strategy and the morality of its actions. If this estimate holds true, it could shift the narrative, suggesting that a larger portion of the casualties are connected to Hamas rather than the previously estimated number of civilians.

Having followed Ohad Hemo’s work for years, I have no reason to question his professionalism or journalistic integrity. He’s known for being thorough, so when he reports something of this significance, it’s worth taking seriously. This pattern aligns with previous conflicts, where both Hezbollah and Hamas have been known to underreport their own losses while inflating civilian casualty numbers.