Hezbollah will not strike: It has already achieved all its goals

Northern Israel has been abandoned by its residents for months: Practically, Israel has lost its sovereignty over that stripe of Israel’s land. Hezbollah achieved this by lobbing a few hundred missiles here and there, now and then, into the northern Israeli towns, and by hanging the threat of a sudden terrestrial invasion of northern Israel, that in a few hours could repeat the massacre of Jews of last October 7^th in the southern Israeli communities bordering the Gaza Strip.

In the same way that the world community has accepted Hamas’ argument that the Octobre 7^th massacre should be seen under the “proper context”, that is, as part of the struggle of an “oppressed people” against the “oppressor” and, therefore, all the means are justified – the world community has shown either complete ignorance or indifference towards the tens of thousands of displaced  citizens from northern Israel – or looks at the situation in northern Israel again “in context”, that is, as part of the justified reaction of the oppressed against the oppressor. That this logic and its premises are completely false, and that the Lebanon-Israel border is considered as a recognized international border, does not move anyone from its predetermined positions regarding the Arab-Israeli conflict [1]: therefore, Israel is guilty or, at the least, equally guilty in the – so defined by the international media – “tit-for-tat” at this border.

The question is then not “if Hezbollah will strike”: Hezbollah has already done its part and is happy with the present situation. The question is whether Israel will continue to accept this de-facto loss of sovereignty over a significant part of its territory and the forced displacement of tens of thousands of its people from northern Israel.

It is time to deal with Hezbollah, so that the tens of thousands of displaced Israelis can return to their homes in northern Israel.

What about Iran?  Iran may be a real existential threat and the one moving the strings in Lebanon, Gaza and Yemen, but Iran should be dealt regionally, and accepting the defensive umbrella provided by the United States, on top of Israel’s air defenses, should be sufficient. Not ideal – but sufficient. A regional war is not of Israel’s interest nor of the United States’ interest either.

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[1] For the root cause of the Arab-Israeli conflict, see my book “The root of the Arab-Israeli conflict and the path to peace”. It may be downloaded for free at:

https://www.researchgate.net/publication/364057784_The_root_of_the_Arab-Israeli_conflict_and_the_path_to_peace

It is also available at Amazon, in paperback and eBook formats.