Houses of Cards in the Middle East; Now Iran? What next?

In recent times, two regimes in the Middle East, Syria and Hezbollah, abruptly collapsed unexpectedly. Is that what will happen to Iran? If so, will the result lead to a stable alternative, or a Hamas Gaza like imbroglio despite Israel’s military success?

After a rapid offensive by rebel forces beginning on Nov 27, 2024, the Assad father and son regime, which ran Syria ruthlessly since 1971, fell abruptly on December 8, 2024, Bashar Assad and his family fled to Moscow, seeking asylum. His powerful and longstanding regime collapsed in less than two weeks, an outcome no one predicted in advance.

Hezbollah was founded in Lebanon in 1982 as a Shia Islamist political and militant group with the goal of resisting Israeli occupation and establishing an Islamic state. Over time, it evolved into a dominant force both politically and militarily—effectively functioning as a regime within Lebanon. Its influence was substantial, supported by an estimated 25,000-member armed force and an extensive social and political infrastructure that reinforced its control over the country.

However, a series of dramatic Israeli interventions significantly challenged Hezbollah’s dominance. Most notably, the “Beeper Attack” injured thousands of Hezbollah members, and the targeted elimination of Hassan Nasrallah, the leader of Hezbollah, undermined the organization’s power. By November 27, a ceasefire was reached—an unexpected capitulation by Hezbollah; they withdrew from southern Lebanon, effectively ending their period of ruthless military and political dominance in Lebanon—at least for the time being.

These are two examples of regimes that, despite being well-entrenched and highly militarized, were abruptly overthrown. They were in retrospect house of cards regimes, that is regimes, that although on the outside they appeared durable, even to the pundits, were actually fragile. In hindsight today, it is difficult to fully appreciate how unexpected those developments truly were.

On the other hand, Hamas, a similarly Islamic fundamentalist extremist group to Hezbollah, continues to survive and uphold its inflexible stance toward Israel—calling for its destruction and supporting the killing of Jews—despite being relentlessly pummeled by the IDF.

Israel’s phenomenal present military success in Iran may well lead to collapse of the present Iranian government, or at least a dramatic weakening of it. In analyzing the situation, can an understanding from what happened in the other regimes be gleaned and applied so that the eventual results in Iran will lead to a more peaceful and collaborative situation in the Middle East such as in Lebanon or Syria, rather than a Hamas Gaza type of enduring conflict?

What accounts for the durability of Hamas compared to the collapse of Hezbollah and the Assad regime? One argument put forward regarding Hamas is that despite Israel’s military superiority, the brutal actions of Hamas with regards to the holding of Israeli hostages confers them an advantage; that concern for the welfare of the hostages leaves Israel’s hands somewhat tied. However, I am not convinced that the hostages are the main reason for the Hamas standoff.

I propose that another, perhaps the cardinal reason for Hamas’s endurance is the absence of a viable political alternative. Neither pro-Palestinian groups nor Israel have proposed a credible “day after” solution—what to do if Hamas is defeated. No one has presented a practical governing alternative to Hamas. This lack of options makes it more difficult to remove Hamas from power.

In contrast, the present leader in Syria, Abu Mohammad al-Julani, has at least declared and is trying to set up an alternative regime which, unlike Hamas, Hezbollah and Iran will not be a priori anti Israel.

In Lebanon, both the government and the armed forces, now relieved of Hezbollah dominance, are filling in the vacuum much to the benefit of the Lebanese people (and Israel).

Iran, to date, remains inflexible like Hamas. It has not budged on its policies of insisting on uranium enrichment, developing its ballistic missile program, supporting their proxies with money and arms and calling for Israel’s destruction. As it appears now, since they refuse to modify their policies, if the IDF continues its attacks, like what happened with Hezbollah in Lebanon, the Iranian government may well fall soon.

Regrettably, because of their ongoing ruthless regime, there is no opposition, no free press, no independent judiciary, and effectively no organized framework or person who can take over the helm in Iran. There may consequently be a “day after” problem like the situation in Gaza. That would be unfortunate.

A lack of an alternative solution may leave Iranians with no choice but to continue supporting their government, even though the consensus is that most Iranians do not back them. This ongoing support could result in a prolonged war of attrition, similar to what Gaza is experiencing.

Concerned countries in the Middle East, along with Western countries including the US should be already be considering how to help handle Iran’s day after situation, should the Islamic Republic of Iran fall.