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Saudi Arabia’s Strategic Tightrope: BRICS for Oil?
Saudi Arabia’s position in the Middle East (and on the global stage as well) is evolving rapidly, particularly as the Kingdom navigates the complex dynamics between the United States, China, and the BRICS bloc, amidst the ongoing crisis. With tensions rising in the region, Riyadh faces difficult decisions that could reshape its economic, political, and security landscape. These decisions are also influenced by the approaching USA 2024 presidential election, where Saudi Arabia’s choices now could yield significant long-term consequences.
Saudi Concerns Over Oil and Regional Stability
Saudi Arabia, alongside other Gulf states, is deeply concerned about the potential fallout of an Israeli strike on Iran’s oil infrastructure. According to multiple Gulf sources, these countries have been lobbying Washington to prevent such an escalation, fearing that their own oil facilities could become targets of retaliatory strikes from Iranian proxies. With Iran warning Riyadh that it could not guarantee the safety of Saudi oil infrastructure if Israel were to attack, the stakes are incredibly high.
The Gulf states have made it clear that their airspace will not be used for any Israeli strikes, but this has not lessened their anxiety. As one Gulf source highlighted to Reuters, “We will be in the middle of a missile war. There is serious concern, especially if the Israeli strike targets Iran’s oil installations.” For Saudi Arabia, an attack on its oil facilities, similar to the devastating 2019 strike on Aramco, could trigger a global energy crisis, a scenario the Biden administration is keen to avoid as it approaches the November elections.
This anxiety is also rooted in Saudi Arabia’s historical experience. Since the 1945 agreement between King Abdulaziz and U.S. President Franklin D. Roosevelt, the Kingdom has relied on U.S. security guarantees in exchange for ensuring a stable flow of oil. The idea that its critical oil infrastructure could once again be under threat underscores the fragility of the security architecture that has defined Saudi-U.S. relations for decades.
U.S. Engagement: Managing Risks Amid Saudi Fears
The Biden administration is working closely with Saudi Arabia and other Gulf states to manage the crisis. The U.S. shares Riyadh’s concerns about the potential for an Israeli-Iranian conflict to spiral out of control, which could not only disrupt global energy markets but also complicate the political landscape in the U.S. ahead of the 2024 election. “If oil prices surge to $120 per barrel, it would harm both the U.S. economy and Harris’ chances in the election,” noted a Gulf source.
While the U.S. is keen to avoid an escalation, it is also aware of Saudi Arabia’s critical role in the global energy supply. As a leading exporter and OPEC heavyweight, Saudi Arabia has significant influence over global oil prices. Washington’s engagement, therefore, is not just about preventing conflict but also about maintaining economic stability in a volatile geopolitical environment. The broader question for the U.S. is how to balance its traditional alliance with Saudi Arabia while addressing Riyadh’s growing engagement with China and Russia.
Saudi Arabia’s Position on BRICS: A Strategic Bargain?
While Saudi Arabia has expressed interest in joining the BRICS bloc, its commitment remains tentative. The announcement that Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman would not attend the BRICS summit in Russia raised questions about Riyadh’s current strategic calculations. As a Carnegie analysis noted, “The inconsistent U.S. position towards ongoing regional and international crises… may pave the way for BRICS to achieve its objectives,” but internal conflicts and logistical challenges within BRICS make its cohesion uncertain.
Saudi Arabia’s reluctance to fully commit to BRICS reflects its strategy of using potential membership as leverage in its broader geopolitical game–even with U.S. While the BRICS bloc offers an opportunity to diversify away from the U.S.-led global financial system and reduce dependency on the dollar, Riyadh is carefully weighing the benefits. The possibility of using BRICS as a bargaining chip with the U.S. to secure stronger security guarantees is a key element of its current diplomatic calculus. Riyadh might consider delaying its full engagement with BRICS if it can extract more significant concessions from Washington, particularly in the form of a bilateral defense agreement or enhanced military cooperation.
However, what remains to be seen is whether Saudi Arabia’s hesitation is purely tactical or indicative of a deeper alignment with the West. While BRICS represents a potential shift in global power dynamics, Riyadh must balance its short-term economic interests with China against its long-standing security reliance on the U.S.
China’s Growing Influence and Saudi Arabia’s Multipolar Strategy
Saudi Arabia has in fact deepened its economic ties with China, notably through initiatives like the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), which align with Riyadh’s Vision 2030. The partnership between Saudi Arabia and China has led to significant investments in fields such as artificial intelligence, renewable energy, and smart cities. While these ventures offer Saudi Arabia opportunities for modernization, they do not come without challenges. China’s growing influence in the Gulf is undeniable, but it lacks the military infrastructure and security guarantees that the U.S. provides.
China’s non-interference policy and its relative distance from the region’s internal conflicts, especially compared to the U.S., make it an attractive economic partner. However, Beijing’s relationship with Iran complicates its role as a strategic ally for Saudi Arabia. While Saudi Arabia appreciates China’s investments and technological cooperation, these do not address the Kingdom’s core security concerns—namely, countering Iranian influence in the region. For now, Saudi Arabia’s multipolar strategy allows it to benefit from both economic collaboration with China and long-standing security ties with the United States.
The U.S. continues to play a critical role in ensuring the Kingdom’s security, particularly in countering regional threats like Iran. As U.S. Ambassador Michael Ratney noted last month, Riyadh is working towards a “history-making” defense agreement with the United States, which could further deepen Saudi-U.S. ties while limiting China’s military influence in the Kingdom. This balancing act highlights Saudi Arabia’s pragmatism as it seeks to navigate an increasingly multipolar world.
U.S. Elections and Saudi Arabia’s Strategic Calculations
The 2024 U.S. presidential election adds another layer of complexity to Saudi Arabia’s strategic calculus. The Biden administration’s decision to lift the ban on offensive arms sales to Saudi Arabia underscores the importance of maintaining strong ties with Riyadh. As U.S. officials stated, “The Saudis have met their end of the deal, and we are prepared to meet ours,” marking a shift in U.S. policy towards the Kingdom.
If Kamala Harris wins the election, Saudi Arabia’s decision to delay its full engagement with BRICS could pay off, ensuring greater U.S. support. Conversely, if Donald Trump returns to office, Saudi leaders might expect to secure even more favorable terms, given Trump’s historically close relationship with Riyadh. The potential for a U.S.-Saudi normalization agreement with Israel, which has been in the works for months, is another key factor. However, as one commentator noted, “The most crucial of those concerns Israel’s unwillingness to seriously consider a two-state solution in Palestine, which Saudi leaders say is a precondition for any agreement.” The political dynamics surrounding this issue could influence Saudi Arabia’s future relationship with both the U.S. and Israel.
Ultimately, Saudi Arabia’s strategy of maintaining flexibility while deepening economic ties with China and securing its strategic alliance with the U.S. will likely continue to define its geopolitical approach in the coming years. The Kingdom’s ability to navigate this delicate balance will determine its future role as a key player in both the Middle East and the broader global order.
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