How Messianic Governments Will Fumble ‘A New Middle East’ and Make Things Worse

The Middle East is undergoing a historic upheaval. The fall of Assad’s regime in Syria and the collapse of Hezbollah in Lebanon mark the end of an era of Iranian hegemony in the region.

Benjamin Netanyahu will most likely take the credit, but everything started with a stroke of luck, with a brilliant and successful exploding pagers operation. Why was it luck? As the pagers were purchased during the war around April-May of 2024 and the operation was only activated because there was concern that it had been discovered. The Pager Operation toppled Hezbollah like a house of cards, effectively severing one of Iran’s central arms, which effectively pushed opened the door to Syria’s fall, and the Iranian grip on the region is gone. Hezbollah and Syria were a buffer for Iran, who is now on her own.

Iran, once a menacing force, now finds itself in an unprecedented position of weakness. Under the new Trump administration, backed by pro-Israel Evangelicals and the American Jewish right, the Iranian regime will most probably mean the end to the Ayatollah’s regime.   It will not survive Trump’s term.

On the surface, these developments seem positive for Israel. The immediate security threats have been removed, and its sworn enemy – Iran – is on the ropes. However, as often happens in the Middle East, reality is more complex.

The next nation that might suffer from the latest developments is Jordan. The neighboring country, ruled by now a minority under Western patronage, could be next in line for an uprising. Instability in Jordan would pose new challenges to Israel’s security.

Amidst all the regional chaos, a rare window of opportunity has opened for a historic peace agreement with Lebanon. However, Israel’s extreme right-wing government is likely to pass on this opportunity. Instead of seizing this historic chance, the right-wing messianic government will continue to promote policies that deepen the polarization in Israeli society.

The tragic irony is that while Israel succeeds in removing external threats (almost completely by chance), it will deepen its internal problems. The current government, and the one that will follow, are expected to continue promoting reforms that undermine democracy, strengthen settlements, and advance principles of Jewish supremacy. Chaos in the streets of Israel is increasing, and these right-wing governments will enjoy a free hand under the supportive Trump administration.

It is all due to demographics. The rapid growth in the ultra-Orthodox and settler communities, ensure that future governments will also need to rely on the support of the ultra-Orthodox and the religious right. This will continue its downward spiral.

Thus, while Israel celebrates the removal of external security threats, it faces the destruction of Israeli democracy and the complete takeover by the zealous right. Moreover, the cost of the war and the growing security needs and the growing boycott initiatives against the ongoing occupation and war, will probably bring an economic crisis along with the democratic crisis.

The paradox is disturbing: Instead of capitalizing on the success in removing its external threats, thanks to a stroke of luck with “a modern Trojan Horse,” in the process, it will lose democracy and the ability of productive populations to continue living in Israel. 

The pagers “lucky break,” no thanks to government policies, like a house of cards has reshaped the regional landscape. Will Israel’s leadership be able to capitalize on the opportunities for the benefit of its people and the future of Israel? Probably not.