IBN: A Strategy to Resolve the Iran Conflict Through Regime Transition

The “Iran: Back to the Norm” (IBN) strategy can let the US and Israel (the Coalition) snatch victories from the jaws of mission unaccomplished in the 2026 Iran War. Their kinetic air campaigns, Operation Roaring Lion for the Israelis and Operation Epic Fury for the Americans, have achieved every tactical objective, with all designated targets struck. Yet, the strategic goals — regime change, nuclear weapons program termination, the end of proxy support — still escape them. Then Iran throws down two additional gauntlets: the closure of the Strait of Hormuz and the drone and missile attacks on its US-allied neighbors, against which the Coalition only has partial credible answers (blockades of Iranian ports and threats of bombing Iran back to the Stone Age). The war is now at a stalemate.

The IBN strategy aims to break the stalemate by exploiting the unconventional structure of the Iranian regime itself ― a unique hybrid system with an unelected theocratic pillar overlording over an elected republican pillar. The IBN is the ultimate divide-and-conquer strategy; instead of hitting both pillars simultaneously as in a regime change, it advocates a regime transition that dismantles the theocratic pillar while elevating the republican pillar. The IBN envisions the latter as the sole recognized representative of the state of Iran, but only on an interim basis. Its mandate is to rally the public around a republican ideal, serve as a pragmatic interlocutor in a ceasefire negotiation to reopen the Strait and halt attacks on neighboring states, convene a ‘Big Tent‘ process for drafting a new constitution, and oversee the first election of the resulting Republic of Iran. Answerable to the electorate and grounded more in nationalism than in religious ideology, the new administration will be more rational in discussing the nuclear weapons and proxy military support within the framework of a comprehensive peace agreement, since for most Iranians, these white-elephant projects rank low in priority and have done more to undermine than to advance the country’s sovereignty and prosperity.

Targeted for dismantlement, the theocratic pillar will not go down without a fight. Air campaigns alone have proven incapable of dislodging a regime, and sending ground troops is a political anathema in both Washington and Jerusalem. Now comes the IBN’s “Battlefield: Cities“: It enables Iranians to dismantle the dreaded pillar themselves through coordinated, protected, massive marches. The Coalition shifts the air wars from decapitalization to targeting all positions of the theocratic institution, using lethal means but also psychological tactics and cyberattacks, to soften the capability of the clerics’ security forces to counter the protests. With its extensive humint network inside Iran, Israel will assume the main responsibility for “Battlefield: Cities”: It will identify the major cities for the demonstrations, devise the courses of the marches, send drones through them for practice and demonstration, drop leaflets throughout the country to announce the dates and locations of the marches. On the days of the marches, Israel will conduct a high-low air tactic: high-altitude aircraft will target security forces massing and enforce a no-fly zone over the marches, while autonomous and first-person-view drones (operated by infiltrated agents) will provide street-level air cover for the protesters against rooftop snipers, riot-control apparatus, and security cordons. Joining the marches will be armed members of the urban opposition and even tanks from the republican pillar’s national army, all answering to the “rally ’round the Republic” call. On the side of the theocratic pillar, many of its praetorian units and paramilitary security members may not show up, after being contacted by the Israeli intelligence service and warned by the leaflets. In January 2026, they were already having trouble containing the “Bazaar Uprising” without the help of foreign mercenaries who had fewer qualms about shooting directly at the demonstrators.

The uprising was spontaneous, improvised, and largely uncoordinated, which limited both participation and its overall impact. Its greatest vulnerability, however, was that unarmed protesters stood no chance against armed repression. The IBN-elicited demonstrations will be different: simultaneous in many cities, with set schedules and defined routes, and protected in the air by Israeli jets and drones and on the ground by coordinated armed opposition, and most importantly, by many national police and army units that decide to support the republic. With much of its elite units pinned down at the Strait of Hormuz by the US naval armada and beset by low morale, the tens of thousands of praetorian and security forces the theocratic regime can muster in each city will be no match for the millions of fed-up Iranians who, assured of the provided protection and of safety in numbers, will mobilize at the same time and at the right place. The theocratic pillar will fall.

There is an alternative scenario. The theocratic pillar may meet its downfall without falling down: it would simply withdraw gracefully. The IBN’s “Battlefield: Cities” is no secret: the dropped leaflets expose the plan to both the alienated citizens and their clerical rulers. The latter may come to the conclusion that resistance would be futile, and it would be best for the country and for their own sake to take themselves out of governing with dignity. It has been a long journey. The 1979 Islamic Revolution deposed the last monarchy of Iran and brought home from exile Ayatollah Khomeini, who created the theocratic pillar based on his radical interpretation of a revered Shia doctrine, Velayat-E Faqih (” Guardianship of the Islamic Jurist”), which grants a qualified Islamic jurist the governance of the Muslim community in the absence of the Twelfth Imam. Like communism, Khomeinism is a creative thought exercise from the fertile mind of one learned individual. When implemented, both doctrines initially arouse revolutionary zeal. There is just one problem: when applied year after year to millions of people, they do not work. After 74 years, communism was retired from Russia, its birthplace. In January 2026, a leaked internal survey commissioned by Iran’s presidency found that 92% of Iranians “hate the regime”. After 47 years, the Khomeinist religio-political experiment has empirically failed ― it is time to retire it into the history book of human hubris.

In Iran, activist clerics follow Khomeini into government to rule Iran: they are the “Government Clerics“. On the other hand, the Quietist clerics believe political involvement corrupts the sanctity of the clergy and stay in their traditional seminaries. Returning to Shia Quietism would provide regime clerics the cover to withdraw from their posts, thus undermining the clerical side of the theocratic pillar. The decapitation air campaigns, which can resume at any time and target them again, plus the manifest outcome of “Battlefield: Cities”, could convince many to take the honorable exit.

Rounding the pillar is the security side, composed of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and Basij militia. The IBN addresses this side by leveraging the very own nature of the theocratic pillar: the clerics need protection and enforcement, so they create their own praetorian forces, but they don’t have the wherewithal to pay and maintain; their solution is to have the IRGC control major sectors of the national economy, from oil and gas, telecommunication, construction, to agriculture. The revenues from this vast enterprise parallel to the national economy pay for both the clerical and security sides of the theocratic pillar. After being recognized as the sole representative of Iran, the republican pillar will continue this patronage system throughout the transition period for the sake of stability: the IRGC troops remain in their barracks and get paid, the IRGC managers keep running the businesses and get paid, the Basij militia resume their normal life and get paid, the clerics also get paid, and their religious institutions funded.

The IBN’s classic stick-and-carrot approach may have the theocratic pillar step aside with dignity for a new Republic to guide Iran forward.

After a constitutional referendum and first election, it will be the responsibility of the new Republic of Iran to integrate the IRGC’s military branch into the national army. By this stage, Iran will be well on its way toward securing peace with its neighbors, Israel, and the US, eliminating the need for a large conscript army. Trade agreements will quickly follow the peace agreements, lifting all sanctions and reintegrating Iran’s economy into regional and global markets. The IRGC’s vast business empire will be absorbed into either the public or private sectors. Nation-building, the pursuit of prosperity, and traditional piety will engage generations of Iranians and mark the beginning of a Persian Renaissance.

Strategy Paper

The full-length paper, “Iran: Back to the Norm for War and Peace“, provides a comprehensive explanation of the strategy. You can read it on Doc Ngu’s Substack.

Author’s Note

I developed the IBN strategy last year after Israel’s 2025 Operation Rising Lion achieved its decisive tactical objectives against Iranian nuclear and military targets but failed to topple the regime. Strategically, a surviving regime will reconstitute its nuclear and military capabilities. I had planned to publish a two‑part series on the IBN strategy on my Times of Israel (ToI) blog. The first article, “Objective: An Iran Back to the Norm“, appeared on June 20, 2025. I completed the second article, “Mission: Drones Over Tehran“, in July and submitted it twice, but ToI editors rejected it both times without explanation. While preparing the second edition of my book, “A Frog-In-The‑Well Solution — The Israeli-Palestinian Conflict: How the PEIS Plan Will Resolve This Conflict Once and for All“, I decided to abandon the ToI submission process and instead combined both articles into “Appendix E: No Beef with Iran” of the PEIS Book. Given the unresolved conflicts in Gaza, the West Bank, and Lebanon, the PEIS Plan should be of considerable interest to ToI readers.

After Israel launched the 2026 Operation Roaring Lion, I updated the 2025 IBN strategy to reflect the new circumstances. The article you are reading is a brief of the full-length paper, “Iran: Back to the Norm for War and Peace“, which presents the complete framework of the updated 2026 IBN strategy.