Impact of US Strikes on Iranian Nuclear Sites

What comes after Saturday’s master strikes on Iranian nuclear sites by American forces? Who knows, it’s all up in the air (literally). President Trump is pressing Iran to enter negotiations and accept peace, or at least ceasefire, presumably with US and Israel, and thus usher new era to the Middle East. So far, Iran has been defiant verbally and by sending more ballistic missiles to Israel, but its options are limited unless it has hidden nuclear material and plans to use to load it into one of its long-range missiles. It does not have any plane capacity for distant attacks, even its ballistic missiles have limited capacity, mostly confined to American sites in the Middle East (that may not be much of a consolation), and its allies in the region are losing appetite for joining Iran. One thing Iran has done for many years in the past – not just inciting, but actively participating in terrorist attacks around the world. Iran is also considering closing shipping passage through Hormuz strait which would severely impact shipping of oil and natural gas throughout the world, and would have similar impact on Iran as well as shipping of these commodities brings large revenue to Iran itself.

On the other hand, there might be several positive outcomes though not coming in the immediate future. I hope that even those members of Congress who condemned Trump and called for his impeachment realize that the strikes may deter China from an attack on Taiwan and may even moderate Putin’s actions in Ukraine. Perhaps Arab states, such as Egypt and Saudi Arabia, currently condemning US for these strikes will be less afraid to join US and Israel in preparing their compatriots for changes in the region. Removing Iranian (Shiite) influence from Iraq should have a positive impact on governing Iraq by Iraqis. Though Israel will continue to receive its burden of bombing eventually the bombing will decrease, hopefully sooner rather than later. We can expect more “surprises” prepared by Israeli and US forces that may convince Iran to negotiate ceasefire and abolishment of nuclear material and bomb production. Ceasefire might be seen as an acceptable option as Iran will run of launchers if not of missiles, other military equipment and commanders.

And how about our West European allies? Their approach has been befuddled to say the least. I would say that they never miss an opportunity to miss an opportunity to closely paraphrase Abba Eban, the legendary Israeli statesman. Even Keir Starmer, the British prime minister, came out in support of President Trump’s strikes on Iran, but this only after calling for de-escalation of situation together with Emmanuel Macron and Friedrich Merz a couple of days ago. Their invitation to meet with Iranian foreign minister Abbas Araghchi led to a worthless meeting because of Araghchi’s insistence to engage in dialog, not negotiations, but even this only after Israel stops the war. German Friedrich Merz is the only one of the three acknowledging that Israel is doing the dirty work for Europe (and perhaps for many other countries) and he is sending real, material help to Israel.

In the middle of Iran showering missiles on Israeli civilians, Ursula van Leyden, the EU leader, insisted that Israel needs to send more humanitarian aid to Gaza in a phone call with Netanyahu. Did she offer any help to Israel? I doubt it. Many EU countries are expected to meet on Monday to discuss a newly circulated report by the EU External Action Service that implicitly recommends considering sanctions against Israel for its conduct in the war in Gaza and its ongoing policies in the West Bank. Why not offer substantial material contribution to humanitarian aid in Gaza and discuss their peeves on West Bank after the war with Iran is over? It sounds like some EU members wish the worst for Israel.

While the report raises the possibility of sanctions, it is not going to happen due to strong opposition from Israel’s allies, such as Germany and the Czech Republic. Their intervention is expected to keep the issue at bay rather than advancing to any concrete policy proposals.

What is the point of these out of place proclamations and actions? Further humiliation of Europe? Europe has been already humiliated by its paralysis and inability to act.

The fate of Iran Islamic republic is uncertain. Is it going to survive, and in what form? Iran is very different than Libya and other Arab countries. The population, including women is highly educated and disciplined. Their protests are peaceful, unlike in Libya. So potential for ISIS like state is much lower. But somebody worse can succeed Khamenei, and as WSJ suggested Saturday right before US intervention IRCG has enough people and resources to govern Iran. But that will be decided best by Iranian people themselves. In the meantime we need to thank President Trump for forceful action!