India’s balancing act between Iran and Israel

Tensions between India’s two key allies, Israel and Iran, have placed New Delhi in a challenging position. While India maintains strong economic and strategic ties with both nations, it also advocates for a peaceful resolution to their conflict. Navigating this complex geopolitical landscape requires India to exercise careful diplomacy and nuanced decision-making. Above all, despite appearances,  New Delhi is aware of the hostility it faces as Islamic Iran supports Pakistan’s claims on Kashmir, sponsors attacks on its territory and India’s large Shia population is also slowly getting radicalised.

One of India’s ranking ministers, Nitin Gadkari attended the inauguration of Iran’s  President Masoud Pezeshkian and was photographed in the family photo with Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh.  This was picked up by several observers especially when Hamas and other Islamic brotherhood organisations which form a part of Iran led “Axis of Resistance” also are uncomfortably close to Pakistan sponsored separatist terrorist organisations which target India.

In the aftermath of the 7th October Hamas terrorist attacks on Israel Senior Hamas leaders Ismail Haniyeh and Khaled Meshaal have equated the Palestinian issue with Kashmir during a meeting  in Qatar with a Pakistani delegation led by Maulana Fazl-ur-Rehman of Jamiat-e-Ulema-e-Pakistan.

The relationship between Israel and Iran has long been fraught with deep mistrust and hostility, with each nation viewing the other as a fundamental threat to its existence.A major point of contention is Iran’s support for groups like Hezbollah and Hamas, which have carried out violent actions against Israel and continue to call for Israel’s destruction. The brutal violence against Israeli civilians on 7/10, hostages who continue to remain in Hamas custody and Iran’s continued support to Hamas and makes Iran complicit in this violence.  This dynamic is further complicated by Iran’s nuclear ambitions, which Israel views with significant concern and as an existentialist threat.

The US withdrawal from the Iran nuclear deal in 2018 and the subsequent reimposition of sanctions have exacerbated tensions, further isolating Iran and creating a more volatile regional environment. India, with strong economic and strategic interests in West Asia, is a key stakeholder in the Israel-Iran conflict. The region is crucial for India’s energy security, as a significant portion of its oil imports come from there. Any disruption in the flow of oil from this region could have serious consequences for the Indian economy.

Beyond energy, the region is a significant market for Indian exports and a source of remittances from the large Indian diaspora working in Gulf countries, contributing significantly to India’s economic growth and development. The Persian Gulf wars have had India mobilise one of the largest repatriation efforts in modern human history and have  cost the Indian economy dearly.

India has also invested heavily in infrastructure projects in the region, such as the strategically important Chabahar Port in Iran. This port provides India with access to landlocked Central Asia and Afghanistan, bypassing Pakistan, and is a key element in India’s regional connectivity strategy providing India with the strategic depth it craves in central Asia. After its partition, India lost land access to Afghanistan and Central Asia which Chabahar provides it with. The port is also important to keep growing Chinese influence in the “stans” for India as well as China’s development of the Gwader port in Pakistan.

India’s push for the India-Middle-East-Europe Economic Corridor (IMEC), which aims to connect India with West Asia and Europe, hinges on a peaceful and stable regional environment which has been stalled by the Hamas attack on Israel. While Hamas primary objective was to create terror, it was also to provoke an Israeli reaction which would scuttle the imminent Israel-Saudi Arabia peace deal which was key to IMEC’s success.

This ambitious project, involving the development of infrastructure and trade routes across land and sea, would give India access to new markets and enhance its regional influence. It is also seen as a counter to China’s Belt and Road Initiative. For Iran, a successful IMEC would have meant a dampener to the International North South trade corridor (INTSC) which brought trade from Russia to India through Iran.

India also strong ties with Israel, a major supplier of defence equipment and a strong intelligence partner. The two countries share close military and intelligence cooperation, with Israel’s advanced technology and military capabilities seen as vital to India’s modernisation efforts.

This relationship provides India with access to cutting-edge military technology, intelligence sharing, and joint development of defence systems. Both countries also share concerns about terrorism and extremism, cooperating on counterterrorism initiatives, including intelligence sharing, joint training exercises, and the development of counterterrorism strategies.

India has kept ignoring its concerns on Iran’s support to terrorist activities in India. Its sizable Shia population (estimated to be around 30% of its 200 million Muslim population), has been peaceful and strongly supportive of India’s government and its growth. However recent violence against ships bound for India and Indian origin crew on cargo ships by Yemen’s Iran controlled Houthi’s, have started affecting India’s strategic security.

India can play peacemaker between Israel and Iran and continue walking the tightrope between two allies. However sooner or later it has to accept publicly which it has privately suspected for years. Despite India’s support to Iran for joining the BRICS, its investment in Chabahar port fighting against US threats for sanctions and several goodwill gestures, Iran directly supports actors who are not only hell bent on destroying Israel, but also support organizations responsible for terrorist attacks in India. Sooner or later India will be forced to take a side and Iran will lose a strategic partner and friend. Iran’s loss will be Israels gain.