Iran’s nuclear program and its effects in South Asia

The US-Iran nuclear situation remains a focal point of global security concerns, with President Donald Trump having issued a warning to Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Khamenei, demanding either a return to negotiations or the risk of war. Iran has indirectly indicated openness to dialogue, yet the situation remains unpredictable. If Iran refuses negotiations and moves toward a nuclear program, the regional and global consequences will be severe, setting off a chain reaction of militarization and geopolitical realignments. If diplomacy prevails, Iran’s regional influence could shift, impacting its relationships with neighboring countries, including Pakistan, Saudi Arabia, and India.

Iran and Saudi Arabia have long been locked in an ideological struggle, competing for dominance in the Middle East. If Iran successfully develops nuclear weapons, it would disrupt the delicate balance of power in the region. Saudi Arabia, an ally of the United States, would likely accelerate its nuclear ambitions, triggering an arms race involving Turkey, the Gulf states, and potentially even Egypt. The region, already fraught with proxy conflicts, could descend into further instability, with each state seeking nuclear deterrence to secure its strategic interests.

The implications of Iran’s nuclear ambitions extend beyond the Middle East, particularly affecting South Asia. Pakistan, which shares a long border with Iran, would face significant security and diplomatic challenges. Historically, Pakistan-Iran relations have fluctuated, shaped by sectarian dynamics, regional politics, and economic ties. A nuclear-armed Iran could pose a strategic dilemma for Pakistan, be it with strategic alignment or the Sunni-Shi’a conflict. If Saudi Arabia perceives an existential threat from Iran, it could pressure Pakistan for military support, forcing Islamabad into a difficult balancing act between a neighbour and a benefactor who is holding Pakistan’s economy alfoat.

India, on the other hand, has cultivated strong economic and strategic ties with Iran as well as a strong security relationship with Israel. The development of the Chabahar Port highlights India’s investment in Iran as a gateway to Central Asia and Afghanistan, bypassing Pakistan. If Iran achieves nuclear capabilities, it may embolden its partnerships with India, shifting the balance of power in South Asia. Pakistan, in such a scenario, could face heightened tensions on multiple fronts, with Iran on one side and India on the other. If hostilities were to escalate between Iran and Pakistan due to sectarian tensions or border disputes, Pakistan would find itself in a precarious situation, sandwiched between nuclear-armed adversaries. Pakistan’s strong anti-Israel stance also creates a larger threat given Pakistan’s support to terrorist groups which have traditionally targeted Israeli’s and Jews in Europe.

An Iranian nuclear program would also have profound implications for Afghanistan, Syria, Yemen, and other regions where Iran has actively supported terrorist groups and proxy forces under the banner of the “Axis of resistance”. The threat of nuclear-backed aggression could embolden Iran’s involvement in these conflicts, further destabilizing the region. For Pakistan, this could mean increased security concerns along its western border, particularly if Iranian-backed groups become more assertive in Afghanistan or if cross-border tensions escalate. Given that Pakistan has maintained a cautious stance on Iran’s nuclear ambitions, any Iranian move toward weaponization would force Islamabad to reconsider its regional strategy.

Despite these concerns, Iran’s path to nuclear capability remains uncertain. Unlike stable nuclear states such as China, Iran faces continuous internal and external challenges. It has tense relations with nearly all of its neighbors, including Iraq, Turkey, Azerbaijan, and Afghanistan, making it vulnerable to external pressure. Moreover, the United States and its Western allies remain resolute in preventing Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons. If diplomatic efforts fail, military intervention could become a possibility, further escalating tensions in an already volatile region.

The future of Iran’s nuclear program will have far-reaching consequences, not only for the Middle East but also for South Asia and global security. Whether through diplomacy or confrontation, the situation demands careful management by regional and international stakeholders.