Is Israel’s policy on stopping the development of nuclear weapons rational?.
Time and Time again, we have heard that “Iran will never have a nuclear weapon.” Barack Obama said it. Israel has long said and gone to war over it. Indeed, over 35 countries and the United Nations have said it in one form or another. Donald Trump has said loudly, recently, (and inaccurately) that the United States has stopped Iran from developing nuclear weapons.
Worse, the number of countries which have nuclear weapons has increased dramatically since 1945. At first there were 5 countries which admitted to having them: The United States, The Soviet Union, The United Kingdom, France, and China. It was then, and still is, widely believed that Israel had them, too, though it will neither admit nor deny that it has/had them. Today, at least three more countries, Pakistan, India, and North Korea can be added to the list of nuclear powers.
The question remains: is the present policy of saying that Iran will never have a nuclear weapon rational? In my opinion it is not. A quick look at history explains this. For centuries there have always been countries which were the most powerful in Europe because they had the most modern weapons. The 14th century provides an excellent example. At the beginning of the 100 years war (1337) France with its cross bows and its knights in armor riding horses had the most powerful army in Europe. Only 9 years later, England and France fought the battle of Crecy. The English were armed with a new weapons: the long bow of Robinhood fame. With their new weapon, the English defeated the French.
Fast forward to the 20th century, In World War II, The United States and its allies defeated Germany and Japan using M-1 rifles, propeller airplanes, and old-fashioned aircraft carriers. The United States ended the war with Japan by using primitive nuclear weapons. By the time the United States fought the war in Viet Nam, American soldiers had M-16 rifles, napalm, 2 nuclear aircraft carriers, and jet bombers, but still managed to lose the war with the the North Vietnamese. Though the United States had far more sophisticated nuclear weapons than it had in 1945, it did not use them in the war in Viet Nam.
Today, all halfway-respectable terrorists have assault weapons like the AK-47, the American M-16, and Israel’s Tavor. Some, including the Houthis, an Iran proxy in Yemen, have missiles which can reach (and in most cases be intercepted in) outer space. Hezbollah has received missiles and drones from and Iran which which it has been firing into Israel as far south as Tel Aviv, where I live. I know. I have spent hours in my safe room listening to the sound of Iron Dome intercepting missiles which were being fired at me both by Hamas in Gaza and Hezbollah in in Lebanon. Worse, I have heard one missile fired by the Houthis that managed to get through all of Israel’s defense systems, including the Red Alert system which is supposed to warn us of incoming missiles. The first I learned of this missile was when I heard the huge explosion the missile made when the it landed near my home in southern Tel Aviv.
I shudder when I think that if the Houthis had nuclear weapons, I would be dead.
Viewed differently, Israel is still at war with Iran, a very expensive war in which Israel has accomplished almost nothing, but has killed thousands of people and sent many of us to our safe rooms.
The sad reality is that if the historical trend continues, soon almost every country will have nuclear weapons. Instead of trying to keep Iran from getting nuclear weapons, Israel had better learn to live in the nuclear age, if that is possible. If not, all of Tel, Aviv will be wiped off the face of the earth.
