Is Italy negotiating an Abedini/Sala deal with the Iranian regime?

On January 15th, 2025, Milan’s Appeal court will decide whether to apply house arrest for Mohammad Abedini Najafabadi or keep him in prison until the Italian judiciary and the Ministry of Justice consider his extradition to the United States.

As explained by Adkronos News Agency, Milan’s Prosecutor’s Office already expressed a negative opinion regarding house arrest for several reasons. Firstly, the apartment where Abedini would be placed under arrest is located just three kilometers from Milan’s Iranian Consulate and the individual would have to be allowed to exit the flat for basic necessities. In addition, up until today, the application of the electronic bracelet hasn’t even been requested (specific consent from the detainee is required). After several cases of escape and, in particular, the one involving Russian businessman Artem Uss, who fled from house arrest in Milan in 2023, it will be very difficult for the judges to decide. A second escape would in fact seriously compromise Italy’s international credibility.

The Appeal Court of Milan will also have to evaluate whether to accept Washington’s arrest and extradition request. If the green light is given, the final decision will still be up to the Minister of Justice, Carlo Nordio, who will have 10 days to make the extradition effective. If extradited and convicted, both Abedini and Sadeghi could face sentences of up to 20 years in a US prison.

Mohammad Abedini was arrested on Monday, December 16th, on US request, by the Italian police in Milan’s Malpensa airport after landing on a flight coming from Turkey. Another Iranian with US citizenship and connected to Abedini, Mahdi Mohammad Sadeghi, was almost simultaneously arrested in Massachusetts. (Read ToI’s article on the arrests here).

As indicated in the December 16th press release of the US DOJ, Sadeghi and Abedini have been charged with conspiring to export sophisticated electronic components from the United States to Iran in violation of US export control and sanctions laws. Abedini is also charged with providing material support to a foreign terrorist organization (FTO), that resulted in the deaths of US military personnel; specifically, the January 28th, 2024, drone strike on the Tower 22 outpost in Jordan, that killed three US soldiers and injured more than 40.

On December 19th, 2024, the 29-year-old Italian journalist Cecilia Sala was apprehended from her hotel in Teheran by Iranian agents and placed under arrest at Evin prison. Her abduction was carried out by the regime in retaliation and to pressure the Italian government to release Abedini. Since then, there have been constant talks between Italian and Iranian authorities in order to find a solution.

On December 28th, the United States forwarded the extradition request to the Italian authorities. However, the possibility that Italy will grant extradition is far from granted. In fact, there are a series of facts that are worth mentioning.

Firstly, after Sala’s detention on December 19^th, Milan’s Public Prosecutor’s Office opened a model 45 file, that is, without suspects and without a criminal title, on the manner in which Abedini was arrested. The investigation concerns the short time between the issuance of the arrest warrant for extradition purposes, dated December 13^th, and Abedini’s arrest occurred in less than three days. Could this be an issue?

Secondly, on January 3^rd, 2025, Republica journalist Giuliano Fochini explained that an article of the Code of Criminal Procedure, 718, paragraph 2 indicates that, in the event of arrest with an extradition request, the revocation is always possible if the Minister of Justice requests it. The Italian Justice Minister, Carlo Nordio, could therefore revoke it, therefore giving a green light to Abedini’s release.

Meanwhile, some Italian media began to write about Abedini’s great will to learn the Italian language while in custody, and to pray for Cecilia Sala. Aren’t we all impressed?

Thirdly, it also emerged that the Italian government requested the public not to demonstrate against the Iranian regime, as illustrated by members of the Radical Party: “For ten days an Italian journalist has been in the hands of the bloodthirsty and liberticidal theocratic Iranian regime. The Italian government has asked not to demonstrate, but we disobey because when a journalist from a democratic country who only provides information is arrested without charge in a dictatorial country like Iran, the last thing to do is remain silent“.

Is Italy evaluating and possibly negotiating an exchange of prisoners with the Iranian regime? That is surely possible. However, it could be a very unwise option, and for several reasons. First and among all, because the new Trump-led administration about to take office would not digest the decision of allowing Abedini to leave. This could seriously compromise relations between Italy and the United States.

Secondly, considering the Iranian regime’s current status, it cannot be ruled out that Khamenei and friends will soon follow Assad’s path.  Hence, Meloni’s government could find itself with a very unhappy administration in Washington and a declining regime in Teheran.

Thirdly, potentially giving in to the Iranian regime’s pressure would encourage further kidnappings of foreign citizens by Iranian-sponsored terrorism.

As explained by Prof. Adrian Calamel, an Iran expert and a Terrorism Fellow at the Arabian Peninsula Institute:”Tehran’s tactics have been categorized or defined as hostage diplomacy when in fact it is pure terrorism. The strategy has been quite simple, while the world plays inside the diplomatic sandbox the regime is playing outside, nabbing innocent people to be used as bargaining chips for billions of dollars or to spring a regime operative from arrest, extradition and imprisonment, the case with Cecilia Sala is no different”.

The last thing we need is to encourage the Iranian regime’s “Hostage diplomacy”, and a negotiation with Teheran will unavoidably do that.