Is this the end of Iran’s Nuclear Weapons Program?
To What Extent Did the US / Israeli Attacks on Iran’s Nuclear Facilities Destroy that Country’s Nuclear Weapons Program?
Time will tell. But for now, we have only the ability to speculate about the extent of damages inflicted on the Fordow nuclear facility by the US Massive Ordnance Penetrator (MOP) bombs which were specifically designed for this mission. Without the benefit of ground truth data from visual inspections by military or intelligence professionals, many “ television experts” have been pontificating, most claiming that the bombs did little damage. While listening to some of the experts air their opinion, we are reminded of what former FBI Director James Comey said so well that “those who talk don’t know, and those who know don’t talk”.
So, how do we do how much damage was done, if those who know don’t talk? Several clues can provide some indications of the damage. But first, answers to two main questions can be inferred from the satellite images. Have the bombs penetrated deep into the mountain, and did they explode? The probability that none of the MOP ordnance exploded is very slim, so we can safely assume that at least one must have exploded. And if any of the exploded ordnance did not penetrate deep enough, then we would likely see an abundance of ejecta material on the surface. Satellite images do not show large amounts of debris on the surface at or within proximity of Fordow. That is a strong indication that none of the bombs exploded above the underground bunker, and by extension, that all of the bombs penetrated into the bunker as they were designed to do. From that we can conclude that the bombs met their the primary design function; to penetrate reinforced underground bunkers.
The next question is whether any of the bombs exploded. The success rate of those bombs is classified, however, we can assume that the US military would not have deployed them if testing showed a high failure rate. Assuming a 50% success rate, then we can agree that at least seven of the fourteen bombs exploded, and that all of those exploded inside of the bunker. And since these are massive ordnances, then if it highly unlikely that the damage to the Fordow nuclear facility was anything but absolute destruction.
Another point being speculated on mainstream media is that Iran likely moved their stockpile of enriched uranium before the US strike. Satellite images show several trucks lined up at the facility just days before the bombs were dropped, and almost all of the pontificating experts assumed that those trucks were there to remove the enriched uranium. That assumption may be the result of cognitive biases. The more likely scenario is that the Iranians moved their stockpile of enriched uranium to the Fordow bunker based on a critical miscalculation; that the US will not enter the conflict, and that the Israeli jets would continue to pound the Natanz and Isfahan facilities. In that case, we can assess that the Iranian Nuclear weapons program has been severely damaged, or even completely obliterated.
Beyond the destruction of those nuclear facilities, the combined Israeli and US attacks likely served a greater objective; reduced conflicts in the region. The strikes effectively destroyed any false sense of security that Iran’s leadership may have held in believing that their military strength and proxy terrorist activities would deter direct attacks by Israeli or US forces. The strikes demonstrated that their air defenses, and thousands of missiles will not protect them from future direct attacks. That awakening, hopefully, will result in their re-examination of the strategy of using proxies to attack Israel other countries in the region. Time will tell.
