Israel Can Prevail Over Iran

Certainly, Iran is a large country and a formidable enemy, and together with its terrorist proxies (Hamas, Hezbollah, Islamic Jihad, and the Houthis), have done some significant damage to Israeli society. Therefore, we are all poised on the precipice of escalating confrontation between the two parties.

Since the October 7 terrorist attack by Hamas on Israel, there have been nonstop attacks on Israel by Iran and its proxies. The result has been thousands of murdered and wounded Israelis, tens of thousands displaced in the north and south of the country, and damage to homes, malls, hospitals, and even kindergartens. This is part of a long history of aggression and threats to annihilate Israel “from the river to the sea.”

Despite all this, Israel has shown incredible resilience and success in warding off the attacks (particularly through their multilayered missile defense) and defeating their enemies. For example, in Gaza, Israel invaded and has been attacking the terrorists, destroying their weapons and tunnels, and working to rescue the hostage taken on October 7. Additionally, in response to Hezbollah missile and rocket barrages, Israel has been targeting their leadership and degrading their military infrastructure, and most recently, with the Houthis on July 20, Israel successfully destroyed their strategic oil storage and port harbor in Hodeida.

Yet, the most important adversary here is not the terrorist proxies, but rather “the head of the snake,” Iran, masterminding and orchestrating all the attacks against Israel. And here, Israel has proven exceptionally adept at outmaneuvering and undermining its prime adversary.

Israel’s Intelligence and Military Has Been Incredible

While Iran has long threatened and attempted to destroy Israel in a grinding war of attrition, repeatedly we have seen Iran’s vaunted military humiliated by Israel.

Just this past week, Israel brilliantly executed the elimination of former Hamas terrorist leader, Ismail Haniyeh, right in the middle of the “elite” Iran Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) compound, where Haniyeh was a guest at the inauguration of Iran’s new president.
Similarly, Israel has shown a complete mastery capable of operating almost without limit in Iran and setting back their nuclear development program: from the Stuxnet cyberweapon used in 2010 that disabled Iran’s nuclear centrifuges to Israel’s stealing Iran’s top secret nuclear archive right from the heart of Tehran in 2018 to Israel’s elimination of five Iranian nuclear scientists between 2010 and 2020, including their top nuclear scientist, Mohsen Fakhrizadeh, who was killed with a remote-controlled machine gun.
Further, in April of this year, after Israel was able to eliminate Iranian top general Mohammad Reza Zahedi in Syria, and Iran proceeded to shoot over 300 ballistic and cruise missiles and drones at Israel, the IDF, in a calibrated response and warning, was able to completely take out Iran’s air defense system in Isfahan, where they have secret nuclear weapons R&D facilities.

Five Reasons Iran Has More to Lose Than to Gain

Given Israel’s incredible finesse at undermining and outmaneuvering its Iranian enemies, what is Iran going to do?

Some say that Iran is a crazy “irrational actor” and is bent on destroying Israel no matter what.

But thinking about this strategically, Iran is more vulnerable than it appears and there are at least five reasons that it should restrain itself from any further escalation with Israel.

The Mossad Can Topple the Entire Iranian Regime

Based on Israel’s past freedom of action in Iran, the Mossad has clearly penetrated every major facet of Iran. Israeli intelligence is so deeply embedded across Iran’s police, military, Revolutionary Guard, and even within their Supreme Council that Iran’s most senior leadership could be targeted and removed at literally any moment. Similarly, I imagine that Iran’s computer systems have been infiltrated with countless “Trojans” that, once activated, will take down the gamut of Iran’s computers and grid. Together, this would be the most significant event since the 1979 revolution in Iran that overthrew the Shah and would, in effect, topple the hated Iranian regime and free the good people of Iran from their grips of oppression.

2. Israel’s Option to Conduct a 1967-Style Preemptive Attack

If Israel is under severe threat, it could choose, like in 1967, to conduct a debilitating preemptive attack against Iran and its terrorist proxies. Israel is not a “sitting duck” forced to wait for Iran’s evil schemes to play out. At Israel’s choosing, they can select the time, place, and manner to inflict a preemptive knockout blow on Iran (including on its oil fields that make up 40% of Iran’s export economy) that would take years, if not decades, for them to recover from. Remember, the Menachem Begin Doctrine is to preempt a dangerous adversary and not let them get weapons of mass destruction or otherwise create an existential threat to the State of Israel.

3. Israel Can Let Iran “Take the Bait” and Then Destroy Their Nukes

Israel could let Iran take the provocation of the Haniyeh elimination to conduct their “severe” retaliatory attack on Israel (which, with G-d’s help, Israel and its allies will be able to thwart, similar to when Iran attacked on April 20). Then Israel and the U.S. (which is already streaming military assets into the region) can use this opportunity to destroy Iran’s menacing nuclear weapons program. Israel could use 30,000-pound “Bunker-Buster” bombs (or Massive Ordnance Penetrators) to devastate even Iran’s most deeply buried nuclear facilities. Remember, Israel has been warning the world for years now that they will not permit Iran to get nuclear weapons which would create an existential threat to Israel from the radical Islamic terrorist regime.

4. Iran Needs to Contemplate Not Just Today, But Tomorrow

Iran has invested heavily in missiles and drone technology to attack its adversaries, threaten the Middle East, and attempt to create an arc of terror and a radical regional caliphate to destroy Western ideology and civilization. However, Iran’s window of opportunity is quickly closing. Israel’s new Iron Beam laser defense system is due to become operational next year, in 2025. This will make Iran’s means of attack virtually obsolete. Of course, Israel’s broad array of investments and innovations in advanced technologies, artificial intelligence, quantum computing, robotics, and more will create a deep power divide between the two adversaries. Whatever Iran does today, it will be sure to come back again tomorrow, when Israel is even more powerful than ever.

5. Israel’s “Secret” Doomsday Weapons

As one of the most powerful militaries in the world, Israel (like its peers) has not only a large number of superior, modern weapon platforms and delivery mechanisms but also a variety of doomsday weapons that it can employ should it be existentially imperiled. These weapons presumably span the gamut of chemical, biological, radiological, and nuclear (CBRN). Of course, these are weapons of “last resort” (and which are generally not acknowledged or talked about), but if Israel’s back is up against the wall, then make no mistake that any adversary dumb enough to provoke such a response would be taking their continued existence in this world for granted.

Of course, nobody knows the future, and Iran may choose to attack Israel anyway, but if they do, then both will likely suffer damage and deaths. However, let’s be crystal clear: Iran has far more to lose than to gain if it acts rashly in the face of Israel’s (and America’s) far superior military and intelligence. Finally, let’s not forget that while for Israel, this is the last stand (“the Jewish people have nowhere else to go”), at the end of the day, what we want most in the world is for peace and coexistence to prevail, rather than for the ultimate fears to be realized.