Israel Election: Who are the Major Players?

The lists for the upcoming Knesset elections are closed now. Thirty-eight political parties have submitted candidate lists to the Central Elections Committee. Many of those parties have little realistic chance of passing Israel’s 3.25 percent electoral threshold. The most consequential elections in Israeli history will be decided by a much smaller group of serious contenders. Most of them are familiar to the Israeli electorate. The fragmentation of the political landscape means that every vote counts: A party that barely fails to cross the threshold can deny its ideological camp a number of Knesset seats.

These are the main parties:

Yashar  – led by Gadi Eisenkot  

The political phenomenon of this election is Yashar, led by ex-IDF Chief of Staff Gadi Eisenkot. Eisenkot has become the new “hot” name in Israeli politics and, at least for the time being, seems to have much electoral momentum behind him. Recent polling gave Yashar 24-25 seats.

Eisenkot provides a combination that Netanyahu has difficulty finding: military experience, a reputation for seriousness, personal credibility and the image of someone who is not part of the traditional political establishment. His experience as a former senior military commander is especially pertinent in an election that takes place after the huge security failures of October 7 and the ensuing wars and military confrontations.

Yashar is the most interesting development of the campaign. I hope Eisenkot does well and gets more mandates than Likud. More broadly, his success would show that Israeli voters are prepared to give strong support to a political alternative based on security, competence, national responsibility and institutional repair rather than Netanyahu’s long-standing political formula.

Likud – led by Benjamin Netanyahu

Likud is still the dominant force on the right wing of the Israeli political spectrum and still has an extremely loyal electoral base. Despite all that has transpired over the past few years, Netanyahu remains a formidable political force.

His government has initiated the deep political and social rift of trying to reform the judiciary, which has sparked massive demonstrations and contributed to an unprecedented level of internal polarisation. Then came the attack by Hamas on 7 October 2023, the taking of 251 hostages, the ongoing war in Gaza, the repeated regional confrontations, the war with Hezbollah, attacks and exchanges of fire by Iran, and attacks on Israel from different directions including Syria, Yemen and Iraq. It has been a period of unusual insecurity and military mobilisation in the country.

Meanwhile Israel has been torn by internal divisions over how the war has been waged, the fate of the hostages, who is to blame for the failures before 7 October, the relationship between the government and the judiciary, the position of human rights organisations, violence by Israeli settlers in the West Bank, the cost of living, taxation, pressure on public services and Israel’s ever more difficult diplomatic environment. Netanyahu and his allies have also mounted sustained attacks on political opponents, critics and institutions they cast as obstacles to the elected government.

So there are many reasons why one might have expected Likud to have suffered a far more dramatic electoral collapse. But that didn’t happen. Likud has a remarkably durable core electorate and Netanyahu can still mobilise voters around security issues, opposition to a Palestinian state, distrust of the political left and his long standing claim to be the politician best able to protect Israel.

Recent polling forecast 20-21 seats for Likud in the next Knesset. Down from its current 32 seats, but still quite an achievement given the most troubling last four years.

This is, for me, profoundly worrying. That Likud remains one of the two leading parties after such a turbulent period says something important about both Netanyahu’s political skills and the durability of his political base.

B’Yachad – led by Naftali Bennett and Yair Lapid

The new B’Yachad (Together) list unites former prime minister Naftali Bennett and former prime minister Yair Lapid, after Bennett’s political movement and Lapid’s Yesh Atid decided to run together in the election.

Personally, I think they made a mistake by uniting. My feeling is that Bennett and Lapid would have attracted more votes had they run separately, with one able to appeal to somewhat different constituencies than the other. A joint list may also seem a political convenience rather than a compelling new political project.

That said, B’Yachad is a serious contender. Recent polling has put it in the mid-teens, and so third behind Yashar and Likud.

The Democrats Yair Golan

My party is the Democrats, led by former IDF Deputy Chief of Staff Yair Golan.

The Democrats represents the political values I stand for: democracy, the rule of law, human rights, equality, civil liberties and peace. I do not view these principles as an abstract ideal, but as the foundation for Israel’s long-term security and political stability.

The Democrats are currently polling at something like 9-12 seats. I hope the party does very well. I will vote The Democrats.

Israel needs a large political force ready to defend democratic institutions, equality before the law, minority rights, and a political horizon of reconciliation, not permanent conflict.

The Unified List

The Joint List is an Arab political alliance, a coalition of a few Arab parties that have wisely elected to work together rather than to split the Arab vote.

That’s strategically important. Arab citizens constitute a significant portion of the population of Israel, 21 percent, but the fragmentation of Arab political parties has repeatedly reduced their parliamentary influence. The only way for the Arab minority to have a fair share of representation in proportion to its electoral strength and to wield real power in the Knesset is to unite.

The latest polls put the Joint List at around seven to eight seats.

Ra’am – led by Mansur Abbas

Ra’am has decided to sit outside the Joint List. This is a crucial strategic choice, as Abbas has pursued a somewhat different political model than the traditional Arab parties: instead of defining his party purely through opposition, he has stressed practical cooperation with Israeli governments in exchange for tangible gains for Arab citizens.

In this election, Abbas has taken another important step, by placing a Jewish candidate second on the list.

It is unclear whether this strategy will pay off. Recent polling has Ra’am hovering around the threshold-to-mid-single-digit range, making its performance especially crucial for the arithmetic of the next Knesset.

Yisrael Beiteinu – led by Avigdor Lieberman

Yisrael Beiteinu (Israel Our Home) has a fairly stable constituency. The latest polls give the party about 8-10 seats, making it one of the more significant possible coalition partners.

Otzma Yehudit – led by Itamar Ben-Gvir

Otzma Yehudit (Jewish Power), led by the Kahanist Itamar Ben-Gvir, is a radical, anti-liberal, anti-democratic, religious and deeply exclusionary version of Jewish nationalism that is inconsistent with the democratic values I want Israel to reflect. Its ongoing electoral success is a sign of how far ideas once politically marginal can become normalised and exercise a powerful influence within government. The polls predict about six to eight seats for this extreme party.

Ben-Gvir’s rise in Israeli politics is especially telling: a politician associated with the Kahanist tradition has gone from the margins of Israeli politics to the center of government power.

Shas – led by Aryeh Deri

Shas has a very reliable ultra-Orthodox electorate and will probably continue to be a significant part of the next Knesset. Recent polling puts it at somewhere between 7-8 seats.

Deri has a lengthy political history and has been convicted of criminal offences, including tax offences. Shas is a sectoral and very transactional party whose political priorities are geared toward the interests of the ultra-Orthodox population it represents.

Its ideological position is less relevant in practical coalition terms than its capacity to extract resources, institutional concessions and policy commitments from whichever government needs its support.

UTJ – United Torah Judaism

Another ultra-orthodox party is United Torah Judaism (UTJ). It sees its main political responsibility as being to its own constituency and its religious institutions.

It seems slightly less powerful than at its peak but it is still a major force in parliament and polling around seven or eight seats.

Like Shas, UTJ is less about electing a prime minister on ideological terms than about getting budgets and preserving religious arrangements and safeguarding the interests of the Haredi community. So its support is potentially available to whichever bloc can meet its demands.

Religious Zionism-Zehut — led by Bezalel Smotrich

Religious Zionism–Zehut is a hardline religious-nationalist position. The list was the product of a merger between Smotrich’s Religious Zionism and Moshe Feiglin’s Zehut.

I am totally against this political project. This party represents a mixture of religious messianism, territorial maximalism, hostility toward large sections of the Arab population, and a willingness to subordinate liberal-democratic norms to an ethnonationalist conception of the state.

It is, electorally, in an insecure position. Recent polling has put it around five seats, but the party has also been close enough to the electoral threshold for its survival to matter greatly to the right-wing bloc. I hope it does very poorly.

Your People Israel – led by Ofer Winter

Your People Israel, led by former military officer Ofer Winter, is a new political force to the right of Likud. Winter has spurned Netanyahu’s calls for smaller right-wing parties to unite, helping to splinter the right-wing vote.

The party is currently at about the electoral threshold. One recent poll gave it four seats, while other polling has shown it below the threshold.

I hope that this party does not enter the Knesset. But its fate could be pivotal, as far as coalition math goes: Every right-wing party that fails to reach 3.25 percent potentially deprives Netanyahu’s bloc of votes.

The Reservists

Another new political venture is The Reservists, linked to former politician and military figure Yoaz Hendel. Whether it can establish itself as a serious national force is still unclear.

Polling in recent times has been inconsistent with one poll saying it was on the cusp and others saying it had no representation.

At this point I just don’t know how well it will do. But it is potentially of great significance if it attracts those voters who are disillusioned with the established parties but are looking for an alternative with a security orientation.

Blue and White – led by Benny Gantz

Former defence minister and former IDF Chief of Staff Benny Gantz’s Blue and White demonstrates how quickly a political promise can evaporate.

Gantz held a job almost identical to that of Eisenkot today several years ago. To many Israelis, he was the most credible of potential successors to Netanyahu: a former chief of staff, moderate, respectable, security-minded and apparently capable of replacing Netanyahu without causing more political turmoil.

Gantz burnt a lot of that political capital. A series of decisions, reversals and political compromises gave an impression of uncertainty and a lack of political leadership. Gantz failed to convert his great public credibility into a coherent political strategy.

The stakes are dramatic. Recent polls have placed Blue and White below the electoral threshold, and at times with no projected seats at all.

That is very unfortunate. Many Israelis who would otherwise have voted for Gantz risk wasting their vote or moving to another opposition party. More importantly, votes meant for the opposition could end up helping Netanyahu’s bloc if Blue and White fails to make it into the Knesset.

The big question: can opposition get to 61?

Ultimately the election is not simply a contest of which party comes out on top. The issue is who can cobble together 61 members of the 120-seat Knesset and form a government.

The main forces against Netanyahu are Yashar, B’Yachad, The Democrats, Yisrael Beiteinu and the Arab parties. Their willingness and ability to work together after the election will be key. If they enter the Knesset, the Reservists may also join the anti-Netanyahu camp, though this cannot be assumed in advance.

The religious parties are more complex. They generally prefer a Likud-led government and their political and ideological affinities are far stronger with the right than with The Democrats or other secular-liberal parties. But they are very practical too. Their support is often conditional on budgets, religious legislation, control of institutions and other tangible concessions. In the past, they have shown that political power can trump ideological consistency.

Hence the importance of the electoral threshold. Thirty-eight lists are competing and it is the fragmentation of the vote that could decide the entire makeup of the next Knesset. Recent polling shows a very tight race between Yashar and Likud, with B’Yachad and The Democrats next in line, but the coalition maths is still very much up in the air.

I hope Yashar becomes the largest party, the Democrats do well, the democratic opposition wins at least 61 seats and Israel has a chance to begin fixing its democratic institutions, rebuilding public trust and embark on a more responsible course on security, human rights and peace.