Israel Needs a Turnaround Election

New elections in Israel must see a decisive defeat of the ruling Likud party. Why?

The Israeli government that was formed in December 2022, led again by Benjamin Netanyahu as prime minister, is responsible for a wide range of severe problems that have created unprecedented anxiety about the country’s future. These include:

• Fanatical ministers (Levin, Smotrich, Ben-Gvir,) who’ve damaged Israel at home and abroad

• The continued efforts to weaken the rule of law in Israel, by coalition politicians and others

• Widening divisions in Israeli society

• The heightened need to change the role and responsibilities of the Ultra-Orthodox in society

• Coarsened rhetoric, so much of which has issued from coalition Members of Knesset

• Brazen budget allocations to narrow interests rather than national interests

• The tens of thousands of Israelis unable to live at home in broad swaths of sovereign Israel

• The travails and needs of thousands of heart-broken Israeli families since October 7^th, 2023

• The sense that our leadership’s misplaced priorities and mistaken conceptions produced the vulnerabilities that our enemies so painfully exploited on and after October 7^th

Although the responsibility for some of the above is shared by the top security brass, the civilian government is ultimately responsible for the policies and actions of the security establishment. With Netanyahu and the Likud in power for 14 of the last 15 and a half years, their blame shifting and avoidance of responsibility is totally lame.

A huge disappointment has been the enduring failure by a group of five or more Likud MKs to muster the political courage to announce that they would support a constructive vote of no-confidence that would replace the current coalition of the Likud, the far Right, and the Ultra-Orthodox parties in favor of a more balanced coalition, without the need for new elections. Given that it hasn’t happened so far, it’s hard to believe that such a path towards forming a new coalition will be taken.

In light of the Israel’s dire situation, it would be therapeutic and a form of political “just desserts” were the next election to produce a dramatic weakening of the Likud party, which built and has maintained the current coalition. While elections often yield only small changes in the strength of major parties, some elections do produce major turnarounds, as has occurred in other parliamentary democracies as well as in Israel. This often occurs after a party has been entrenched in power for an extended time period.

For example, the most recent election in the United Kingdom saw the Conservatives, in power since 2010, decline from a ruling majority of 365 seats to a much weakened 121 seats in Parliament, a 67% decline. In Canada, the Conservatives under Stephen Harper, first elected in 2006, were reduced from 166 seats in 2011 to 99 seats in 2015, a decline of 40%. According to recent polls, a similar or larger decline might befall Justin Trudeau’s Liberals, in power since 2015, in the next Canadian federal election.

What about Israel’s elections? Two instances of turnaround elections that significantly weakened the previous ruling party stand out: the elections of 1977 and 2006. In 1977, when Menachem Begin’s Likud party was propelled to power, the previous ruling Labor party fell from 51 seats to 32 seats, a decline of 37%. In the 2006 elections, after Ariel Sharon left the Likud to form Kadima, the Likud fell from 38 in 2003 to 12 in 2006, a decline of 68%.

For such a turnaround to occur in Israel’s next election, many Likud voters who have serious regrets about the current government would likely want an alternative leader whose political positions reflect some of their core political views. A party led by Naftali Bennett, for example, might well suit many Likud voters, enabling them to switch parties. As a former prime minister, Bennett has had prior experience dealing with foreign leaders and is intimately familiar with the most pressing security and social problems facing Israel’s leadership at the highest level. In addition, Bennett has always identified as someone on the right politically. It helps that Bennett has not been active politically since before the last election in November 2022. Although opinion polls are often transient and unreliable, it is encouraging that some recent polls have found that a Bennett-led party could become the largest party in Israel.

Of course, between now and a future election in Israel, other new political parties might be formed or some existing parties might merge, further complicating the possible outcomes. However, if such parties identify as left or centrist, they are less likely to appeal to Likud voters than a Bennett-led party; such parties are more likely to redistribute votes on the center and left, rather than attract Likud voters, possibly leaving the Likud with only modest losses.

Given the great difficulties Israel faces, so much the responsibility of the current Likud-led coalition, a thorough repudiation of the Likud would be the best result of such an election. The combination of a new prime minister, a different leading party, and a balanced coalition is vital for dealing constructively with the multiple security, diplomatic, social, and economic problems facing the State of Israel.