Israel needs to draw new cards

For many Israelis, the return of Donald Trump to the White House seemed like (pardon the pun) a trump card in their hand, a leader favorable to Israel and willing to take historic steps in support of the Jewish state.

However, in the days leading up to the 2024 election, I wrote a blog reflecting on the danger that Trump could pose. His ego and unpredictability combined with a deeply isolationist vice president who has a voting record against Israel and statements about US and Israeli interests not aligning, carried significant risks.

I wanted to be wrong, and for a little while it seemed that maybe I was, as Trump seemed to embrace Israel closer than ever.

However, soon the warning signs began to flash.

First, we saw Vance’s ability to manipulate Trump’s ego to his own isolationist ends on full display during the infamous Oval Office meeting between Trump and Ukrainian President Zelensky in early 2025. When Zelensky tried to explain the existential security concerns his people faced and that the terms the Trump administration was proposing were not realistic, Vance jumped in.

“Do you think it is respectful to come to the Oval Office of the United States of America and attack the administration that is trying to prevent the destruction of your country? … Have you said thank you, even once?“

Vance’s prodding triggered Trump, who soon began berating Zelenskyy for “gambling with World War 3” while “not having the cards.”

Vance went on to state how cutting support for Ukraine was one of his “proudest moments.”

After this meeting, Zelensky realized that Trump was not a reliable ally, and rather than trying to beg him for support, he began carefully cultivating a network of other allies while investing heavily in Ukrainian domestic weapons production.

Ukraine has faced difficult days, but the strategy seems to have paid off. With the smoke of burning refineries hanging over Moscow’s skyline and Arab states lining up to ink deals with Ukraine to access its cutting-edge drone tech, it appears that Zelensky figured out how to turn a losing hand around.

Now Israel is facing the same wrath of Trump and Vance as they advocate for their horrible Iran deal.

Warning signs of Trump’s fickle nature affecting Israel were previously on full display during the June War with Iran. Israel had obtained air superiority and was inflicting significant damage to the Iranian regime. The only thing beyond Israel’s reach was the hardened nuclear sights.

Trump agreed to authorize the US B2 mission to hit those sights. A significant and impactful move in the region.

However, rather than declaring mission accomplished and withdrawing the US from the conflict, leaving Israel to continue their efforts at degrading the regime, Trump, deep in his pursuit of a Nobel Peace Prize, ordered the Israeli planes to turn around and unilaterally declared a ceasefire.

As I watched the American Armed Forces and IDF go into battle against Iran together this year, I asked myself what would have happened if Israel had been allowed to continue the June War instead.

Without continued US involvement in that war, it’s unlikely Iran would have escalated to striking the Arab Gulf States or seizing the Straits of Hormuz in retaliation. The Battle for Hormuz is clearly where this war was lost, as the lack of resolve to endure the economic fallout caused Trump to fold his hand.

Tens of thousands of brave, freedom-minded Iranians would still be alive and waiting for their opportunity rather than having been mowed down by the revolutionary guard last winter.

Giving in to Trump’s June ceasefire demand and instead tying the IDF’s operations so closely with the Americans was a grave miscalculation. It turns out the hand Israel was dealt contained not a trump card but a joker.

Now, we are witnessing Trump and Vance make statement after statement that echos their treatment of Zelenskyy. Vance is now accusing Israel of disrespecting Trump, reining righteous indignation and defending his boss’s honor. It’s the exact same tactic he used to great effect before in swaying the administration to align with his personal beliefs. 

“You’ve seen people in Bibi’s cabinet have attacked the deal and personally attacked the president of the United States… If I was in the Israeli cabinet, I wouldn’t be attacking the only ally I have left in the entire world. Over the last three months, two-thirds of the weapons that have defended your homeland have been built by American hands and paid for by American tax dollars. You need to wake up to the situation that the country is in.”

Criticism of the deal is hurting Trump’s ego and leading to statements like “Israel would not exist if it was not for me.”

For Israelis who have fought and bled in every generation to protect our homeland, these words are cruel and condescending. For those who see a divine hand at work in protecting Israel, they are blasphemous.

The administration’s message is clear: Israel, you don’t have the cards. Don’t you dare question us, as we try to surrender your future to your enemies. Instead, maybe you should just say thank you.

Equally clear is the only feasible response. Israel needs to follow the Ukrainian example, do not give in to American demands, focus on developing genuine and reliable allies, and make domestic production and self-sufficiency a top national security priority.

It’s time for Israel to draw new cards. And maybe, time to give Zelensky a call.