Israeli–Emirati Military Alliance: Strategic Imperative for the Middle East
It is becoming increasingly clear that 2026 is taking shape as the year of new alliances in the Middle East, built upon the fragmentation/and in some cases the collapse/of alliances that had stood for decades.
Few could have anticipated that relations between Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates would deteriorate to such a level after years of close partnership and near-total coordination on sensitive regional files. Yet divergent interests and fundamentally different strategic approaches, particularly regarding Yemen, Sudan, and Somalia, have driven the two states onto increasingly conflicting paths.
This divergence first emerged quietly in late 2025, following the signing of two parallel strategic agreements: one between Saudi Arabia and Pakistan, and another between the UAE and India. Over time, what began as muted tension escalated into public diplomatic sparring through official statements issued by both foreign ministries, before spilling into the media arena, most notably on the X platform (formerly Twitter), through prominent figures close to decision-making circles.
Such is the nature of politics: interests are fluid, and alliances are no longer measured by the depth of historical ties, but by their capacity to serve national security amid a volatile moment in which traditional guarantees are eroding and established deterrence equations are weakening.
Today’s discussion is not about a single alliance, but rather about several alliances in the process of formation or strategic repositioning. Meanwhile, the most consequential and arguably inevitable alliance remains absent from the public sphere: the Israeli/Emirati alliance, which must be launched without delay if the region is to avoid sliding into a broader and uncontrolled confrontation.
The Saudi/Pakistani Strategic Defense Agreement
Within Saudi strategic thinking, Pakistan is regarded as the Kingdom’s closest non-Arab ally/and indeed one of its most trusted partners in the Islamic world. According to the Pew Research Center, approximately 95 percent of Pakistanis hold a strongly favorable view of Saudi Arabia, reflecting a deep popular bond alongside the official relationship.
Pakistan possesses one of the world’s largest armed forces and remains the only Muslim-majority state with nuclear weapons, a factor that grants it exceptional strategic weight in Saudi calculations, particularly amid rising regional threats. This convergence culminated in the signing of a joint strategic defense agreement stipulating that any aggression against one party would be treated as aggression against both.
The agreement was signed on September 17, 2025, at Al-Yamamah Palace in Riyadh by Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman and Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif during an official visit. While defensive in nature, the agreement sends a clear deterrent message without constituting a declaration of war or an explicitly offensive alliance.
The Emirati Response: The UAE/India Partnership
The Emirati response to the Saudi/Pakistani alliance was swift and calculated, building on discussions that had begun in December 2025. The United Arab Emirates and India signed a letter of intent aimed at establishing a strategic defense partnership, reinforcing already rapidly expanding bilateral relations.
The agreement was concluded during a brief visit by UAE President Sheikh Mohammed bin Zayed to New Delhi, where he held talks with Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi covering cooperation in energy, trade, technology, and maritime security, according to the UAE’s official news agency (WAM).
While not presented as a traditional military alliance, this partnership reflects a clear Emirati strategy of diversifying strategic partners beyond the Gulf framework and constructing new balances in response to emerging regional alignments.
The Saudi/Egyptian/Somali Alignment: Between Analytical Discourse and Field Realities
This alignment remains one of the most contentious topics in Egyptian strategic discourse. A considerable number of Egyptian analysts and media figures portray Israeli activity in the Red Sea and the Horn of Africa as a direct threat to Egypt’s national security. Yet a closer examination of facts on the ground reveals a significant gap between the intensity of these claims and the absence of tangible evidence demonstrating direct Israeli threats, military operations, or concrete security arrangements targeting Egypt in this geographical theater.
Much of the prevailing narrative relies on political estimations and preemptive assumptions rather than verifiable data. Even the most frequently cited point/the recognition of Somaliland by Israel/cannot, in itself, be considered a threat to Egyptian security or proof of hostile intent.
On the contrary, recognition of Somaliland deserves ethical and legal acknowledgment as an affirmation of a people’s right to self-determination. Somaliland gained independence from Britain on June 26, 1960, before voluntarily uniting with Italian Somaliland to form the Somali Republic, an experiment that ultimately failed, culminating in state collapse and prolonged instability.
Accordingly, reducing the Saudi/Egyptian/Somali alignment to a reaction against an “Israeli threat” that lacks substantiated evidence represents an oversimplification of a far more complex reality. The true drivers of this alignment lie in the reconfiguration of influence in the Red Sea, the securing of maritime corridors, and the recalibration of power balances in the Horn of Africa, far removed from alarmist narratives unsupported by facts.
The Saudi/Turkish/Pakistani Alliance and the Potential Inclusion of Egypt
Behind the regional scenes, advanced negotiations are underway to expand the Saudi/Pakistani partnership to include Turkey, with discussions focusing on broader military and security cooperation. Although this alliance has not yet materialized into a formal treaty, its mere consideration reflects the significant transformations occurring within the regional order.
Most noteworthy are reports circulating in research and media circles about the potential inclusion of Egypt in this axis. Cairo has neither confirmed nor denied such participation but continues to maintain a policy of cautious engagement without full integration, allowing it to benefit from multiple balances without committing to rigid blocs that could constrain its strategic maneuverability.
Examining all the alliances mentioned, the common factor uniting these countries under various banners is their animosity toward Israel, which remains the primary driving force. Secondary, yet significant, is the escalating tension between Saudi Arabia and the UAE. A close analysis of the official or semi-official rhetoric from Pakistan, Turkey, Egypt, and Saudi Arabia toward Israel reveals much about this transformation. While the hostile statements directed at Israel by the trio of Pakistan, Turkey, and Egypt do not require extensive elaboration, the pivotal element is the shift in Saudi Arabia’s stance itself, especially when viewed in the immediate historical context.
Until recently, Saudi Arabia stood just a step away from joining the Abraham Accords trajectory, a move that would have marked a historic shift in the regional architecture. However, the terrorist events of October 7, 2023, reshuffled priorities and triggered a sharp reversal in Saudi political and media discourse.
This shift can be illustrated by three key examples:
Saudi state-owned Al Ekhbariya described an Israeli project “donning Abu Dhabi’s mantle” aimed at destabilizing two key regional powers Saudi Arabia and Egypt a direct accusation suggesting Israel’s use of regional intermediaries to achieve its objectives.
The same channel conveyed an official statement asserting that “despite prior warnings, Saudi Arabia will not hesitate to take necessary measures against anyone threatening its national security,” clearly linking Israel and the UAE in a single perceived threat.
Saudi journalist Abdullah bin Bukheit published a highly significant article in Okaz newspaper titled “What is the Abrahamic Peace?” In it, he launched a sharp attack on Israel, directly questioning the ideological and political foundations of the Abraham Accords, targeting their core rather than marginal elements.
It is widely recognized in the Saudi context that major newspapers, including opinion pieces, cannot be separated from the general political climate and often reflect, to varying degrees, the positions of the center of power or at least what is permitted within the acceptable discourse. This gives Bin Bukheit’s article a political weight beyond that of an isolated individual opinion.
Why the Israeli/Emirati Alliance Is an Imperative
In a regional moment marked by the rapid reshaping of alliances based on hostility toward Israel and the absence of traditional international guarantees, the lack of a visible and organized Israeli/Emirati alliance constitutes an unjustifiable strategic oversight.
This alliance is not ideological, nor is it a project aimed at confrontation; rather, it is a deterrent necessity intended to prevent escalation, not ignite it. A joint military defense agreement between Israel and the UAE would send a clear message that there is a red line against any regional adventurism and affirm that state logic and stability remain capable of imposing balance in the face of alliances built on hatred and incitement.
The greater danger today is not announcing this alliance but maintaining ambiguity. Hesitation opens the door to miscalculations and tempts more reckless actors to test the limits of power. In contrast, a clear, declared, and regulated alliance closes the door to uncontrolled escalation.
The Middle East does not need new alliances that accumulate crises; it needs one rational alliance to prevent an explosion. If the Israeli/Emirati alliance is established now, it may represent the last realistic opportunity to keep the region from sliding into hell.
