Israel’s most recent election polls: a hope for sanity.
As an Israeli citizen who considers myself a moderate, I follow the election polls with some interest. While I understand the limitation of polls, especially ones that are done months before the election, the most recent poll gave me a real sense of hope for sanity.
There are basically three groups of parties. The first is Likud which is headed by Benjamin Netanyahu. It is often called “the Netanyahu block.” The second is a group of Jewish parties lead by Neftali Bennet which oppose Netanyahu. They are sometimes called “the Anti-Netanyahu block”. The third group is commonly known as “the Arab parties”, of which there are four.
The Knesset is comprised of 120 members. In order to form a government a coalition must have 61 seats in the Knesset. According to the most recent poll, Neither the Netanyahu block nor the Ant-Netanyahu block .have the 61 seats in the new Knesset necessary to form a government. The Arab parties, thus, hold the balance of power.
I recognize that there are some serious limitations to this analysis. The most obvious one is that Netanyahu is justifiably called a “magician” at being able to remain as Prime Minister. Additionally, Netanyahu has a tragic flaw: he will do almost anything legal to get reelected. In this case, I have watched with dismay as Netanyahu has watched Donald Trump make mistake after mistake in dealing with Iran in the present war, but refuses to stand up to him. The only reason that I can conceive of for Netanyahu’s conduct is that Trump, to my great dismay, is still wildly popular in Israel and Netanyahu thinks that by following Trump he will get more votes in the fall election. I shudder to think that he maybe right.
Actually, both Jewish groups are very close to having 61 seats in the new Knesset. If they do reach 61 votes the Arab parties lose their leverage. If, however, the Arab group joins the Anti-Netanyahu group before the election, the anti-Netanyahu group is highly likely to win the election.
The problem is that both Jewish parties describe themselves themselves as “Zionist” parties which will not have any Arabs among their ministers. Mine is a plea for both sanity and justice. Netanyahu is dependent on the support of the right-wing, Likud and the Haredi parties, so he is unlikely to make a deal with the Arab parties. Consequently, my plea for sanity and justice is directed to the more moderate anti-Netanyahu block led by Neftali Bennet.
The sad fact is that the Israel of today is a far cry from the of Israel envisioned by the founders of this country. That vision is best expressed in Israel’s Declaration of Independence, which states in relevant part:
“The State of Israel will be open for Jewish immigration and for the Ingathering of the Exiles. It will foster the development of the country for the benefit of all its inhabitants; it will be based on freedom, justice and peace . . . it will ensure complete equality of social and political rights to all its inhabitants irrespective of religion, race or sex.”
There are two facts which should give these words some meaning in today’s world. First, the founders of this country were among the original Zionists. There is nothing inconsistent with viewing oneself a Zionist and seeking to assure political power to members of all ethnicities and religion.
Second, Israel deserves support from abroad, especially from the United States, because it is the only democratic (note the small “d) country in the Middle East. There are roughly 2 million citizens of Israel who are NOT Jews. The vast majority of them are Muslims, but there are some members of other religions, too. If Israel is to continue to claim that it is a democracy, it needs to assure that all of its citizens have equal political rights.
In this regard, I was pleased to see that in the most recent poll, neither of of the ultra-conservative, ultra-racist wing political parties, led by Itamar Ben Gvir and Bezalel Smotrich, will NOT meet the 3.25% of the total votes necessary in order to obtain a seat in the Knesset. Without that, neither Smotrich or Ben Gvir will be a cabinet ministers in a new government, as they are now.
What follows from all of this is that the more moderate Anti-Netanyahu block should welcome the support of the Arab parties, which are predicted to have 10 seats in the new Knesset in the election and that support should take place BEFORE the election. In Israel, after an election is held, the President of Israel (not to be confused with the Prime Minister) appoints a party to have the first opportunity to form a government. Normally, this is the party which won the most seats in the election. It is at his point that the hard bargaining normally begins.
Usually a party which is being asked to join a coalition can bargain for two things: 1. It can bargain for which and how many ministries it can have. Both are important. Some ministries have more power than the lesser ministries. The four most sought after (powerful) ministries after the Prime Minister are the the Defense Minister, the Justice Minister, the Finance Minister, and the Foreign Minister 2.The parties can can also bargain for certain legislation to be passed by Knesset.
In my view, any agreement between the anti-Netanyahu block and the Arab parties should include the following:
1. The Arab parties should agree that the State of Israel will be open for Jewish immigration and for the ingathering of the exiles; it will foster the development of the country for the benefit of all its inhabitants; it will ensure complete equality of social and political rights to all its inhabitants irrespective of religion, race or sex;.”
The above words are taken directly from the Israeli Declaration of Independence.
2. There shall be established a Ministry of Minority Affairs. This Ministry will be funded by the Knesset to ensure that it is able to fulfil its purpose.
3. The purpose of the Ministry of Minorities Affairs shall be to work with other ministries in order to ensure the equality of social and political rights to all of Israel’s inhabitants irrespective of religion, race, or sex.
4. The Minister of Minority Affairs shall be a member of a non Jewish party. The initial minister of Minority affairs shall be a member of the Arab list.
These terms can be agreed to before the election.
Is my plea politically feasible? Perhaps not. Nevertheless, it is a step towards protecting Israel as a democratic state and cures the the insanity which results from keeping 2 million Israel citizens from having political power.
