Israel’s Playbook for Dealing with Turkey

Dr. Dan Schueftan, a respected authority on Middle Eastern geopolitics, once said:

“In the Middle East, there are no solutions. Maybe, if you work very hard, over a long period of time, and if you are lucky, you can replace one problem with another.”

This quote perfectly reflects Israel’s perspective on recent developments in Syria, culminating in the overthrow of Bashar al-Assad. Initially, many Israeli analysts viewed this as a positive development, particularly as it weakened Iran’s position in the region. However, optimism quickly faded as another regional power stepped in to fill the void: Turkey.

Under President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, Turkey has grown increasingly hostile toward Israel. While debates continue over the precise origins of this hostility—whether it stems from Erdoğan’s Muslim Brotherhood ideology, his neo-Ottoman ambitions, personal rivalry with Netanyahu, or Israel’s support for Greece and its relations with the Kurds—one thing is clear: Turkey’s growing influence in Syria and the region poses a serious threat to Israel.

For years, Turkey has been hosting Hamas leaders in Ankara and funding radical Islamist elements in East Jerusalem, around the Temple Mount. The rupture in Israel-Turkey relations peaked during the Israel-Hamas war in early 2024, when Ankara severed all trade ties with Israel after Erdoğan compared Netanyahu to Hitler. Today, there is a broad consensus in Israel: Turkey’s takeover of Syria cannot be ignored. The recent massacres committed by the new Syrian regime against the Alawites in the east of the country have shattered any remaining hope that so-called “moderate jihadists” can co-exist peacefully with Israel.

Analyzing Popular Responses

A common suggestion among Israeli hawks is to retaliate against Turkey by supporting the PKK or YPG—just as Turkey supports Hamas. This tit-for-tat approach, based on the biblical principle of “an eye for an eye,” might seem emotionally satisfying but is strategically flawed for multiple reasons.

The Kurds in Syria have already suffered major defeats, and with a pro-Turkish government in Damascus, their strongholds are highly vulnerable. If, as expected, the U.S. withdraws from Syria, Turkey will easily crush any remaining Kurdish forces. Any Israeli investment in them would be wasted, leaving Israel diplomatically humiliated and strategically compromised. After all, one does not bet on a horse that has already lost the race.

Moreover, arming the PKK would escalate tensions dramatically, turning Israel from an ideological rival of Erdoğan into an existential enemy of Turkey. This would unite all factions of Turkish politics—including the traditionally pro-Western Turkish Armed Forces (TSK)—against Israel. Such a move could provoke Turkey to increase its support for Hamas beyond political backing, expanding it to direct military aid, as the Turkish security establishment would start seeing Israel as a strategic threat to its security.

Economic Risks: The Energy Factor

Beyond military consequences, Turkey holds economic leverage over Israel, particularly in energy security. About 40% of Israel’s crude oil comes from Azerbaijan via the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan (BTC) pipeline, which runs through Turkey. If Turkey blocked or restricted this supply, Israel could face an immediate energy crisis, threatening both its economy and national security.

Additionally, the PKK is designated as a terrorist organization by most Western states, including the U.S. and the EU. Actively supporting them would strain Israel’s ties with key allies like Germany and France, both of which strongly oppose the group. Furthermore, the recent call by PKK leader Abdullah Öcalan for the group to lay down its arms effectively renders this strategy irrelevant.

Russia: A Double-Edged Sword

One alternative strategy to counter Turkey’s growing influence in Syria is lobbying the U.S. to allow continued Russian military presence in Syria, an approach that Israel is already pursuing according to multiple sources. Given Turkey’s opposition to Russian influence in the region, Moscow’s presence could be a natural check on Ankara’s ambitions. However, this approach is inherently problematic because Russia has deepened its strategic ties with Iran, supplying advanced fighter jets and air defense systems to Tehran. Strengthening Russia’s hand in Syria may limit Turkish expansion but also risks empowering Israel’s most dangerous enemy, Iran. Thus, while a Russia-Turkey rivalry may work in Israel’s favor in the short term, it also risks emboldening Iran, creating a long-term security dilemma.

A Smarter Strategy: Opposing Turkey Without Strengthening Iran

Avoiding direct confrontation with Turkey does not mean appeasement. Israel must develop a calculated strategy—one that deters potential Turkish aggression while avoiding actions that indirectly strengthen Iran. Ideally, this should also reinforce a pro-Western regional ally to promote long-term stability.

Among the regional powers, Egypt presents a compelling option.

For decades, Egypt and Turkey have been regional rivals, competing for influence across the Middle East. However, relations collapsed in 2013, when Egyptian military leader Abdel Fattah el-Sisi overthrew President Mohamed Morsi, a Muslim Brotherhood leader heavily supported by Erdoğan. Since then, Turkey and Egypt have clashed on multiple fronts—conflicts In which Israel can play a strategic role.

1. Maritime Disputes in the Mediterranean

A major battleground between Turkey and Egypt is the Eastern Mediterranean, where both countries compete for control over gas-rich waters. In 2020, Egypt, Greece, and Cyprus signed a maritime agreement, defining an Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ). This followed Turkey’s signing of its own maritime deal with Libya, ignoring Greek and Egyptian sovereignty. Israel, which has strong energy ties with both Egypt and Greece, should leverage its influence in Washington to push the U.S. to formally back the Egypt-Greece-Cyprus maritime claims. This would:

• Economically weaken Turkey by restricting its access to Mediterranean gas reserves.
• Strengthen Israel’s regional allies and reinforce economic stability.
• Help Egypt’s fragile economy, already under strain from the Houthi blockade of the Red Sea.

If Egypt boosts its gas production, it can reduce European dependency on Turkish-controlled energy routes, giving Israel and its allies more leverage over Ankara.

2. Libya: The Unfinished Proxy War

While Libya’s civil war has cooled, it remains a key battleground for Egyptian and Turkish influence. Between 2014 and 2020, Turkey and Egypt backed opposing factions: Turkey supported Libya’s Islamist government in Tripoli. Meanwhile, Egypt backed General Khalifa Haftar’s Libyan National Army (LNA), a secular faction aligned with Egypt’s anti-Brotherhood stance, which controls about 60% of the area today as the conflict is frozen.

Now, with Islamists in power in Syria, Sisi may see Turkey’s influence as an even greater threat. He may even consider supporting a secular regime change in Libya to counter Ankara. While Israel should not intervene militarily, it can provide diplomatic support for Egyptian-backed factions, helping to curb Turkey’s expanding role in North Africa. Given Libya’s support for the Polisario Front, its recognition of the Sahrawi Arab Democratic Republic, and its close relationship with Algeria, Morocco may even be inclined to join these efforts.

3. The Abraham Accords & Regional Cooperation

Turkey has been a vocal critic of Israel’s normalization agreements with the UAE, Morocco, and potentially Saudi Arabia, citing concerns about Palestinian statehood and the regional balance of power. Egypt, on the other hand, has supported these agreements, even joining the Negev Summit in 2022 to discuss deepening security ties relating to Iran’s ambitions in the region.

As Turkey’s influence grows while Iran’s weakens, Egypt and the Gulf states may find common ground in countering Ankara. This could include:

• Pushing for a tougher stance on Qatar, Turkey’s close ally.
• Expanding the Israel-Egypt-UAE alliance, potentially bringing Saudi Arabia into the fold.
• Coordinating energy policies to limit Turkish leverage over European gas markets, including the possibility of creating a pipeline that goes through Saudi Arabia, Israel, and the Mediterranean.

A united Israel-Egypt-Gulf front would serve as a powerful counterweight to Turkey’s ambitions, ensuring that Ankara remains contained without triggering unnecessary escalation. In 2020, the UAE and Greece signed a defense cooperation agreement, which included provisions for military exercises, intelligence sharing, and mutual defense coordination, strengthening their strategic partnership amid rising tensions with Turkey in the Eastern Mediterranean, showing that the UAE is also concerned about Turkey.

Conclusion: How Israel Must Act

Turkey’s growing presence in Syria presents a serious strategic challenge for Israel. However, recklessly confronting Turkey—such as by arming the PKK—could backfire, pushing Turkey further into militarizing Hamas and disrupting Israel’s energy supply.

The smarter strategy is to reinforce Egypt, a pro-Western ally with overlapping economic and security interests. By helping Cairo assert its influence in the Mediterranean, Libya, and regional diplomacy, Israel can effectively weaken Turkey without strengthening Iran. This is not about choosing sides in every conflict but rather about strengthening alliances where Israel has clear interests. A stronger Egypt means a more stable Middle East—and a weaker Turkey without the risk of empowering Iran.

On a final note, while Turkey’s current trajectory under Erdoğan is hostile to Israel, this could change once he loses power. Opposition parties, particularly the secular CHP, have at times criticized his aggressive foreign policy. A post-Erdoğan government may seek to reset relations, and Israel should ensure its containment strategy doesn’t permanently alienate future Turkish leadership.