Israel’s War and Western’s Geopolitical Liability

The ongoing war in Gaza and the new war with Hezbollah do provide an opportunity for Israel to eliminate the real threats that exist around Israel. The destruction of Gaza down to the underground rat routes that are often used by Hamas forces at least provides an opportunity for Israel to live more peacefully for at least the next 30-40 years, because of the almost total paralysis experienced by Hamas. Perhaps this might be Netanyahu’s legacy for Israel in the future

Likewise, Israel’s involvement in killing Hamas leaders in Iran, including after the killing of the Iranian president some time ago, gives a clear message that both Hamas and Iran are increasingly vulnerable to Israeli attacks on the one hand and the sign of weakening Hamas and Iran on the other.

Also, Israel’s recent attack on Hezbollah’s headquarters in Lebanon, which killed the organization’s old and new leaders, further emphasizes Israel’s superiority over Israel’s closest and most dangerous opponents, such as Hamas, Iran and Hezbollah.

But all this is not without costs and risks. Israel’s indiscriminate counterattacks since last year on the one hand and continuing to this day on the other hand, have damaged not only Israel’s reputation at the international stage, but also United States and Europe, which have long been Israel’s strategic allies.

The problem is, if the global situation today was the same as 20 years ago, then the global position of United States and several countries supporting Israel in Europe would not be too much of a concern for these superpower countries. But the situation today is no longer the same.

Economically, for instance, since the 2008 financial crisis, the world’s confidence and trust in western countries has slowly begun to fade. The dominance of the G7 has been steadily eroded by the BRICS member countries, in particular China.

In fact, not only economically, geopolitically and defensively, China is now seriously threatening United States. The togetherness of China and Russia in BRICS is now really causing the reputation of United States and Europe to slowly erode on the global stage.

As a result, the ability of US and Europe today to maintain global dominance is no longer as strong as before, so that slowly one by one UN members are starting to openly express their dislike for US and the West on the one hand and openly express their support for Palestine on the other hand, as influence of US or other G7 member countries slowly weaken on them.

Moreover, recently, Saudi Arabia, which has always tended to take a neutral stance on the Palestinian issue, has begun to open its support for the establishment of a Palestinian state, since the ongoing war in Gaza which has been considered by the world as a form of humanitarian disaster.

Saudi Arabia certainly wants to maintain its reputation in the eyes of world countries, so it has to choose a firm stance on the Palestinian issue, as it does not want to be dragged too far into the process of “worsening geopolitical reputation” experienced by US and western countries due to defending Israel too excessively.

It is possible that United States will maintain its geopolitical stance towards Israel, namely an ambiguous stance that expresses sympathy for Palestine on the one hand, but also provides real support to Israel on the other hand, in the form of funds and weapons. However, this geopolitical choices will further erode US’s global reputation, further worsen Uncle Sam’s economic performance, and then disrupt US’s fiscal performance.

Meanwhile, Pro-Palestinian countries in the UN will increasingly look for openings to get closer to BRICS, then start to speak out loud in the G20, which will further worsen US’s bargaining position at the global level. Finally, Israel will become a “liability” for US and the G7 countries that have supported Israel so far

In other words, Israel’s decision to continue waging war in Gaza has caused strong reactions from Iran and Hezbollah, which means that Israel also has to face these two enemies, without stopping its attacks on Gaza. This means, first, the ongoing war (protracted war) in Gaza is the main cause of the widening of Israel’s conflict with other parties. Second, it then makes Israel’s international position worse on the one hand, then drags US and western civilization on the other hand.

Then, geopolitically, this process will accelerate the fading of the dominance of “the big countries” supporting Israel on the global stage, which has the potential to make it increasingly difficult for US and western countries to impose support for Israel at the UN and in the global public arena.

So looking back, the main problem is in Gaza. If Israel is willing to stop the massive and brutal attacks on Gaza, then it will be possible to stop the next series of tensions with Iran and Hezbollah as soon as possible. However, as is known, after the Iranian president was killed, and even after the big explosion in Lebanon several years ago, the potential for both parties to threaten Israel actually weakened.

So if Israel stops carrying out a massive war in Gaza, the turmoil of rejection of Israel at the global stage can slowly stop, then US and western countries could immediately renegotiate regarding the Iranian issue on the one hand and neutralize the Palestinian issue on the other hand. Both of which will cause other countries in the Middle East to begin to reduce their hostility towards Israel and their tendency to shift their geopolitical preferences to China and Russia to weaken further.

Because if Israel fails to look at the potential for this geopolitical disaster for US and western countries, then over time Israel will become a “liability” which will be very burdensome for western civilization on the one hand and will increasingly have the potential to strengthen Israel and the Jewish people throughout the world as a public enemy.