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Jannus TH Siahaan

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Jun 15, 2026, 7:47 PM

Why the Iran-US Ceasefire May Be Destined to Fail

The surprise announcement on June 14, 2026, that the United States and the Islamic Republic of Iran had reached a temporary peace agreement marks the emergence of a dramatic new geopolitical moment in the Middle East. The armed conflict...

Jun 7, 2026, 5:41 PM

How Lebanon Became the Ultimate Plaything in the US-Iran Endgame

The geopolitical landscape of the Middle East was fundamentally altered on February 28, 2026, when the United States and Israel launched Operation Epic Fury. This high-intensity campaign of targeted airstrikes dismantled roughly 90 percent of Iran’s conventional defense industrial...

May 22, 2026, 7:49 PM

A Fragile Detente or a Diplomatic Mirage? Dissecting the Leaked US-Iran ‘Final Draft’

The regional chessboard of the Middle East has just been upended by a stunning journalistic disclosure. As detailed in recent Times of Israel reports, the Saudi-backed network al-Arabiya has published what it claims to be the "final draft" of...

Apr 28, 2026, 7:00 PM

Iran Diplomacy in St. Petersburg

In the shifting geometry of global power, wars are no longer merely fought on battlefields, they are negotiated in silence, traded across continents, and priced in barrels of oil and bytes of intelligence. The Iran crisis of 2026 has...

Apr 24, 2026, 7:37 PM

The Elusive Second Round of the Islamabad Talks

The second round of the Islamabad Talks, intended as a form of life support for a two-week ceasefire that expired on the evening of April 22, 2026, remains shrouded in uncertainty. The question is no longer whether the talks...

Apr 14, 2026, 12:27 PM

Gofman at the Helm: Loyalism and the Future of Israeli Intel

The appointment of Major General Roman Gofman as the next Director of the Mossad is not merely a change in personnel, it is a profound rupture in the historical fabric of the world’s most mythologized intelligence agency. For decades,...

Apr 12, 2026, 9:19 PM

The Failure of Islamabad Talks and the High-Stakes Wait for the Backchannel

The geopolitics of the Middle East shifted on its axis on February 28, 2026, when Operation Epic Fury effectively dismantled Iran’s energy grid and air defenses. What followed was a 39-day war that strangled the Strait of Hormuz, sent...

Mar 26, 2026, 1:27 PM

The Political Economy of War: Who Profits from the Ruins of Tehran?

The eruption of Operation Epic Fury on February 28, 2026, marked a tectonic shock that shattered a half-century-old global security architecture. With the killing of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei in the opening hours, the US–Israel war against Iran rapidly...

Mar 11, 2026, 9:51 AM

Iran’s Total Collapse is Imminent, but the Greatest Dangers Still Lie Ahead

The myth of the "Impregnable Fortress" has been shattered into a thousand jagged pieces. As of March 2026, the Islamic Republic of Iran is no longer a regional hegemon capable of dictating the terms of Middle Eastern stability; it...

Mar 3, 2026, 7:02 PM

Operation Roaring Lion: Israel’s Decisive Blow to Iran’s Military Machine

The unravelling of Iran’s military infrastructure did not begin with the first explosions over Tehran. The groundwork, by most intelligence assessments, had been laid days earlier, reportedly during a pivotal closed-door meeting in Washington on July 24, 2026, when...

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About Me

Doctor of Sociology from Padjadjaran University, Indonesia. Defense and Environment Observer.