Barry Lynn
Intersection of Science and Policy

It’s Going to Be Very Rainy, But…

Fair Weather Clouds over the Hills of Gush Etzion (Barry Lynn)

Our next storm should usher in a heavy winter rain and chill for most of Israel on Sunday, lasting into Tuesday morning.  Winds should gust as high as 75 km/h (“Storm Force” winds).

A strong Cyprus low will be arriving Sunday morning, and surface pressures will drop accordingly.  In fact, as noted by Yaakov Cantor (of our “Israel Winter Weather”) group, record low temperatures and heights (at 500 mb) are likely as the storm passes by Cyprus.  Hence, snow could also fall on the upper part of the Hermon. There will also be deep moisture with this storm, which suggests that heavy rain and thunderstorms are possible, especially Sunday evening as the 500 mb trough makes its closest approach.

The chill should lift on Wednesday, and we’ll have pleasant early winter weather until Friday.  Another storm may threaten us late Shabbat or early next week.  Temperatures will remain on the chilly side.

It’s going to be very rainy, but the rain doesn’t happen in a vacuum.  There’s plenty of moisture (and hence energy) in our earth climate system, as temperatures have warmed over the last 50 years or so, and this year was the hottest in our recorded records — 1.32 degrees Celsius above the 1850 to 1900 pre-industrial baseline.

That’s not the only but around, though.

Germany invaded Europe, touching off World War II.  They also exterminated close to six million Jewish souls. But, it didn’t happen in a vacuum: the German people had been “hurt” and “humiliated” after World War I, and, besides, Hitler hated the Jews.

Pol Pot’s Khmer Rouge  murdered 2 million Cambodians,  but it didn’t happen in a vacuum:  he was simply trying to consolidate his rule.

Almost 3.9 million Ukrainians died of starvation during Stalin’s, but it didn’t happen in a vacuum: Stalin was simply busy implementing Communist collectivisation of farms.

HAMAS attacked and massacred more than 1000 Israeli citizens, while launching over 5000 rockets in a single day, but it didn’t happen in a vacuum — so says former President Barack Obama.   In 2012, when Israel retaliated against HAMAS rocket attacks, his administration enforced a ceasefire on Israel to prevent it from further decimating and deterring HAMAS.  So, he’s is correct: only he shares the  blame.

Although I have my doubts, had Israel destroyed HAMAS years ago, perhaps this war would never have been necessary.  This gives even greater impetus for the former president to try to deflect blame by citing Israel’s (actually non-existent) occupation of Gaza (and incidentally, justifying the massacre). But, clearly it is the former president himself who empowered Iran who in turn empowered HAMAS.  Hence,  one might argue Mr. Obama simply prefers a Jew “with trembling knees,” to one (and a country itself) that fights back.

About the Author
Dr. Barry Lynn has a PhD in Environmental and Atmospheric Sciences. He has an undergraduate degree in Biology. He is a researcher/lecturer at the Hebrew University of Jerusalem, and is the CTO of Weather It Is, LTD, a weather forecasting and consulting company.
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