King Ahab of Israel, prudence with words, and Iran

“Let not the one who girds on his armor boast like the one who takes it off” (1 Kings 20:11)

According to the account in 1 Kings, chapter 20, Ben-Hadad, King of Aram Damascus, fought against the Kingdom of Israel and besieged Samaria. During the siege, he sent messengers to Ahab, king of Israel, and threatened Ahab that if he did not pay him a ransom, he, Ben-Hadad, would conquer and destroy Samaria. At first, Ahab considers complying with Ben-Hadad’s demand, but eventually, when Ben-Hadad continues to threaten the destruction of Samaria, Ahab responds with the immortal saying – “Let not the one who puts on his armor boast like the one who takes it off” (1 Kings 20:11). In other words, it is not wise to boast about the outcome of a battle before it is over.

Although Ahab did not receive a favorable historical reception, particularly in the biblical text, his words resonate from generation to generation, to this day.

The State of Israel is in the midst of a complex military campaign for almost two years. Starting from the embarrassing surprise of October 7, 2023, through the ongoing war in the Gaza Strip, and culminating with the aerial and missile war between Israel and Iran in the last week.

Rivers of ink and hours upon hours of commentators’ words have already analyzed just about every possible angle of the military and political maneuvers related to these events. Some see doom and predict disasters, while others are in a victorious euphoria, supposedly which is just around the corner. On every news channel we listen to, and in every newspaper and website we read, the well-known commentators, who have been around for days, weeks, months, and years, analyze for us the significance of what has happened and is happening, and accurately predict what the near and distant future holds. And these commentators are the same one who in the past shared their opinions with us, and not infrequently, their predictions turned out to be wrong.

Therefore, in my opinion, it would be better for both the pessimists and the euphoric to remember the words of Ahab, King of Israel: “Let not the one who puts on his armor boast like the one who takes it off.” We are still very much in the midst of a complex and costly campaign.

I, like most of the citizens of the State of Israel, pray and hope that the victory in the campaign will be swift and decisive. But as an archaeologist and historian of the past, and as someone who knows human and military history through the ages inside and out, historical experience shows that we should be cautious about what we say, and certainly, what we predict. Time and again we see that history has always been and will always be deceptive and fickle, and it is wise to exercise extreme caution before pretending to explain to the public what was and what will be.

A quick look at the military history of Persia/Iran over the ages shows us that we should not think that a path to victory will be easy and swift, nor that it will necessarily be fraught with obstacles and disasters.

The Achaemenid Persian Empire, in the second half of the sixth century BCE (between 550 and 500 BCE), quite rapidly became the largest empire that had existed in human history up to that point (“from India to Cush” as in Esther 1:1) through a series of wide ranging conquests. The Persians demonstrated military capabilities that had not been seen until then. In contrast, about two hundred years later, Alexander the Great, in a swift and brilliant military campaign between 334 and 327 BCE, conquered the entire Persian Empire, from Turkey and Egypt in the west to Afghanistan and India in the east. The entire power of the Persian Empire collapsed, almost overnight.

A few hundred years later, Persia (first the Parthians, and then the Sassanians) and Rome were the two most powerful empires in Western Asia. For several hundred years, these empires fought against each other. At times, these empires were in a state of stalemate, with no resolution. On the other hand, there were times when one empire prevailed over the other, albeit for short periods. Such was the case in 40 BCE, when the Parthians invaded the territories of the Roman Empire in Syria and Israel, but after just a few years, they were repelled. And conversely, in 214 CE, Emperor Trajan invaded the eastern provinces of the Parthian Empire, reaching the Persian Gulf, but he too was repelled from there after a short time. In 260 CE, the Romans were dealt a crushing blow by the Sassanians, when Shapur I, the Sassanian king, captured the Roman Emperor Valerian in the Battle of Edessa.

The back-and-forth between the Roman Empire and the Sassanians continued even when the Roman Empire became Christian (known to us as the Byzantine Empire). In 613 CE, the Byzantine Emperor Heraclius suffered a defeat in battle near Antioch in Syria, and the Persians conquered the Land of Israel and its surroundings. But a few years later, Emperor Heraclius managed to turn the tide and reconquered Syria and the Land of Israel in 629 CE.

These upheavals, on both sides, are just a few examples from the long history of military confrontations between Persia and the powers of the West. Sometimes the Persians achieved a crushing victory, and sometimes the Western forces did, but for longer periods, a stalemate reigned supreme.

And what can we learn from this? That history shows that surprising upheavals can indeed occur, sometimes very quickly, and occasionally there were even brilliant victories. But beyond that, history teaches us that plans and prophecies do not always come to fruition, and even excellent ones can go awry.

Therefore, it is up to all of us—commentators, politicians, and the general public—to be wise and guard against euphoria on one hand and despondency on the other. Less talk and more action, both in war and in peace.

And as the saying goes in American English – it ain’t over until the fat lady sings.

Patience and composure are signs of resilience, whereas talk is much less so.