Lies, Damned Lies and Statistics: 40,000 Deaths in Gaza

The death of every innocent is a tragedy, and in a perfect world the death toll from war would be 0. Sadly, in Israel we are living in a far from perfect world today and the innocent are not perfectly safe. Since the beginning of the October 7th war, the death toll on the Gazan side of the conflict has been a controversial topic. Today, as the official number issued by the Gazan Ministry of Health (Hamas) and taken up by the international media and international bodies alike passes 40,000 it seems like a good time to take a good look at the numbers.

The narrative surrounding this figure has been shaped by various sources, primarily those controlled by Hamas, and has been widely disseminated by international media and organizations with insufficient scrutiny. To understand the true scale of the tragedy in Gaza, we must break down this figure into its constituent parts: combatant deaths, natural causes, collateral damage (civilian casualties resulting from Israeli military actions), deaths directly caused by Hamas, and the impact of Hamas’s strategy of using human shields. Additionally, we must consider the role of propaganda and misinformation, which have significantly influenced the reported numbers and shaped global perceptions of the conflict.

Combatant Deaths

Combatant deaths account for a substantial portion of the total fatalities in Gaza. Israeli estimates suggest that between 12,000 and 15,000 Hamas fighters have been killed since the conflict began. This figure is based on intelligence and battlefield reports from the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) and is supported by observations from independent military analysts.

Hamas has a strong incentive to underreport the number of its fighters killed in the conflict. By minimizing combatant casualties and instead emphasizing civilian deaths, Hamas seeks to portray Israel as disproportionately targeting non-combatants. This narrative is crucial for garnering international sympathy and pressuring Israel to cease its military operations. Consequently, the actual number of combatant deaths is likely underreported by Hamas-controlled sources, which are the primary origin of many of the casualty figures circulated by international organizations and media outlets.

Natural Causes

Since Covid 19 we’ve all become familiar with the term “Excess Deaths”. In a conflict stretching almost a year, there will be a naturally occurring death rate which should be separated out from the conflict. In the case of the Gaza health ministry, it is not separate and so we must account for it.

Gaza, with its population of approximately 2.2 million, has a crude death rate of about 3.2 per 1,000 people per year. Over a 10-month period, this would result in approximately 5,800 to 6,100 deaths due to natural causes, such as illness, age, or other non-conflict-related factors.

It is essential to consider these natural deaths when evaluating the total reported casualty figures. Given that the Gaza Ministry of Health (MoH) does not distinguish between deaths caused by the conflict and those from natural causes, it is likely that these natural deaths are included in the overall death toll attributed to the conflict. This inclusion further inflates the numbers reported by Hamas and accepted by many international observers without critical examination.

Hamas-Induced Deaths

One of the most underreported aspects of the Gaza casualty figures is the number of deaths directly caused by Hamas. These deaths include those resulting from:

Misfired Rockets: Hamas regularly launches rockets at Israel, often with little regard for the safety of Gazan civilians. Numerous instances have been documented where Hamas rockets have misfired, landing within Gaza and killing civilians. These deaths are often included in the overall toll attributed to Israeli actions, despite being caused by Hamas.
Executions of Collaborators: Hamas has a long history of executing individuals suspected of collaborating with Israel. During the current conflict, there have been reports of such executions, which contribute to the overall death toll but are not distinguished in the official figures. These deaths serve as a stark reminder of the internal violence that Hamas exerts on the population it claims to protect.

Coercion and Use of Human Shields

Hamas frequently forces civilians to remain in areas targeted by the IDF or uses them as human shields to protect military assets. This strategy is designed to increase civilian casualties, thereby enhancing international condemnation of Israel. Credible reports indicate that Hamas has killed civilians who attempt to flee conflict zones or disobey orders to stay in dangerous areas. These coercive tactics directly lead to civilian deaths, which are then misrepresented as casualties of Israeli military operations. However, it is impossible to precisely assess what proportion of civilian casualties are the result of Hamas’s human shield strategy, and as such, no specific reduction has been made from the figures for this category.

Collateral Damage (Civilian Casualties from IDF Actions)

Collateral damage, or civilian casualties resulting from military operations, is a tragic but often unavoidable aspect of modern urban warfare, particularly in a densely populated area like Gaza. The IDF has implemented numerous measures to minimize civilian casualties, including advanced warning systems, precision strikes, and the establishment of humanitarian corridors. Despite these efforts, civilian casualties do occur, primarily due to the challenging environment and Hamas’s strategy of embedding military assets within civilian infrastructure.

Estimating the number of civilian casualties is complex, particularly given the inflated figures often reported by Hamas. Based on independent assessments and adjusted for the realities of urban combat, a realistic estimate of civilian casualties caused by IDF actions likely ranges between 16,900 and 22,200 deaths. This estimate accounts for the unavoidable collateral damage in a conflict where Hamas systematically uses civilians as human shields and deliberately positions military targets within residential areas.

No Differentiation Between Deaths Caused by the IDF and Hamas

A critical issue with the reported casualty figures is the lack of differentiation between deaths caused by IDF operations and those caused by Hamas. The Gaza Ministry of Health, controlled by Hamas, does not distinguish between these different causes of death, leading to a conflated and misleading narrative that suggests all casualties are the result of Israeli actions.

This deliberate conflation obscures the responsibility that Hamas bears for many of the civilian deaths in Gaza. By including deaths from natural causes, combatant deaths, and those caused by their own actions in the overall toll, Hamas inflates the figures to create a more compelling case against Israel on the international stage. The lack of transparency in these reports and the reliance on media sources with questionable accuracy further complicate efforts to understand the true impact of the conflict.

Conclusion

While death tolls do not determine the justness or the morality of a war, nor even whether a war is criminal or genocidal, the reported death counts from the Gazan Ministry of Health have been used to attack Israel from very early on in it’s defensive war against Hamas.

The reported death toll from the Gaza conflict, particularly the figure of 40,000 deaths, is likely inflated and must be critically examined. By breaking down the figure into its components—combatant deaths, natural causes, collateral damage, and Hamas-induced deaths—we can arrive at a more realistic understanding of the conflict’s human toll. The lack of differentiation between deaths caused by IDF operations and those caused by Hamas further complicates the narrative, leading to a skewed perception of the conflict’s impact.

The true number of civilian casualties is likely much lower than the reported 40,000, and this figure includes a significant number of combatants, natural deaths, and deaths directly caused by Hamas. Understanding these distinctions is crucial for forming a nuanced view of the conflict and for evaluating the moral and legal responsibilities of the parties involved.