Barry Lynn
Intersection of Science and Policy

Many Winter Days to Come

A light snow in Millwood, NY. Will it snow in Jerusalem, too? (Barry Lynn)

From the war to climate change, there is plenty to worry about. In fact, the relatively warm average global temperatures in 2023  “astonished” climate scientists.  None of these stories has yet to be completely written, although much has been said about them.

Sometimes, then, it’s better not to look too far ahead.  Of course, that’s the “job” of a meteorologist, and  yet many will tell you that they have learned over time not to put too much “stock” in what he or she says.  Forecasts beyond just a few days often just “pan out.”

Still, we’re heading into an unusual weather situation, or at least in recent memory.  Forecasts are showing much colder weather on the way, which frequent rain periods lasting into early February.  With the rain should come the cold (actually, here, it is the cold and rapidly decreasing temperatures with height that brings the rain as the sea provides plenty of moisture as the cold air passes over it and onto the coastal plains and up and over the mountains of our little country).

The global ensemble models, the “EPS” and “GEFS” are both predicting that temperatures should continue to drop over the next 10 days as cold air filters in from the north, and even from the colder reaches of Siberia.

The question in all our minds is: will it snow?  The world is definitely warmer, and we’re suffering through summer heat because of it.  Yet, the polar reaches are still cold enough for sledding, and sometimes circumstances are that it can be cold enough for sledding here too.

How likely will the end of the month and beginning of next month  be snowy?  There is still disagreement among the global models as to when the coldest air will arrive.  One also has to keep in mind that a cold temperature “anomaly” forecast is not not necessarily quite what it used to be, since the world has warmed.  So, it looks like we’ll be right on the edge, with snow more likely in Gush Etzion, the Galilee, and Golan than Jerusalem.

Look for rainy, cold, and windy weather to come — and hope for snow.

Barry Lynn

About the Author
Dr. Barry Lynn has a PhD in Environmental and Atmospheric Sciences. He has an undergraduate degree in Biology. He is a researcher/lecturer at the Hebrew University of Jerusalem, and is the CTO of Weather It Is, LTD, a weather forecasting and consulting company.
Related Topics
Related Posts